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Holmes @ Boone County Predictions (2/10)

Who wins? 79 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

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  • Author
Believe Boone upset Holmes McFarland's freshman year at Boone.

 

05/06 in double OT at Holmes...75-74.

 

That was the year Holmes played Boone without Rice and Edmondson though...Austin Hill I believe went off for 37 points.

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I would not say Popp is built like an Ox. He seems more wiry. I've seen him guard bigger players.

 

For a 6 foot guard, he is very sturdy.

  • Author
Earls is the key for Boone. He has to rebound. McFarland is playing much better this year. As long as he lets the game come to him and doesn't force things, he should have a good game. Boone will have to play well as a team to win. Rico is not much bigger than McFarland IMO. I've seen him and McFarland up close recently. McFarland is Boone's leading rebounder. Cotton also has to rebound, but he seems to be playing on the perimeter as a guard the last several games. Boone will play very hard, and they have been playing good defense.

 

Who has Mcfarland had to go against or guard this year though that had more athelticism than him and was bigger than him?

Looks like I have something to do Tuesday. ;) I have never been to a game in the new gym why not see this game?

Ok I have a question for Mr. Holmes, Eta Rho...What are Holmes weaknesses and what are some of the reason teams like Conner, Scott, and Highlands have been able to stay in the majority of the game when playing Holmes. I saw St. Henry vs Holmes and even stayed in most of that game by slowing it down and knocking down outside shots.

 

Do you feel a zone is something that can hurt Holmes?

 

Some think Holmes doesn't handle a press very well, see Scott Co and Bryan Station.

 

I'm just wondering. I haven't had the pleasure to see them more than twice this season and wonder what teams are going to need to do to pull an upset in your mind.

05/06 in double OT at Holmes...75-74.

 

That was the year Holmes played Boone without Rice and Edmondson though...Austin Hill I believe went off for 37 points.

 

Believe Boone may have upset Holmes at Boone at least once within the last 4 years if I'm not mistaken.

  • Author
Ok I have a question for Mr. Holmes, Eta Rho...What are Holmes weaknesses and what are some of the reason teams like Conner, Scott, and Highlands have been able to stay in the majority of the game when playing Holmes. I saw St. Henry vs Holmes and even stayed in most of that game by slowing it down and knocking down outside shots.

 

Do you feel a zone is something that can hurt Holmes?

 

Some think Holmes doesn't handle a press very well, see Scott Co and Bryan Station.

 

I'm just wondering. I haven't had the pleasure to see them more than twice this season and wonder what teams are going to need to do to pull an upset in your mind.

 

I'd say their biggest weakness is not being able to finish teams off. They seem to get complacent and get a big lead and then let teams creep back in it because they are simply playing harder than Holmes.

 

If you look at the majority of the close games Holmes has had, it's because the other team was shooting the ball well from outside and Holmes had a lot of turnovers, both forced and unforced. Conner shot well from outside, but also got Pittman in foul trouble. If a team can get Pittman in foul trouble, they're very vulnerable because Arnold just simply isn't as intense as Pittman in the paint. The loss to Bryan Station, Holmes just simply got outshot. Morones and Ashford lit them up from outside.

 

The key to beating Holmes is being able to counter their runs. If you look at the Holmes threads throughout the season, you'll notice that they're going to put a 10-0 or 15-0 run on you at some point. If a team can counter the run, they're in good shape.

 

As far as pressing and playing a zone, it's only going to work for so long. Eventually Holmes is going to solve both and either light you up from outside with Riley or Rico against a zone, or they're going to get fast break dunks against the press.

 

Slowing the ball down works to an extent because it limits their offensive possessions, but at the same time, you're going to have to score points to beat them. You won't see Holmes lose a low scoring game. Their defense is too good.

  • Author
Believe Boone may have upset Holmes at Boone at least once within the last 4 years if I'm not mistaken.

 

Nope:

 

07/08 @ Holmes

Holmes 57 Boone 37

 

06/07 @ Boone

Holmes 55 Boone 47

 

05/06 @ Holmes

Boone 75 Holmes 74 Double OT

 

04/05

@ Grant Co

Holmes 68 Boone 50

 

@ Boone

Holmes 79 Boone 73

 

Boone did beat Holmes in 03/04 though before the Jefferson, Hill, Rice, Edmondson era and also the last time Holmes didn't make the region tourney.

Nope:

 

07/08 @ Holmes

Holmes 57 Boone 37

 

06/07 @ Boone

Holmes 55 Boone 47

 

05/06 @ Holmes

Boone 75 Holmes 74 Double OT

 

04/05

@ Grant Co

Holmes 68 Boone 50

 

@ Boone

Holmes 79 Boone 73

 

Boone did beat Holmes in 03/04 though before the Jefferson, Hill, Rice, Edmondson era and also the last time Holmes didn't make the region tourney.

 

That may have been the time I remember, but I believe it was also an upset.

  • Author
That may have been the time I remember, but I believe it was also an upset.

 

Not really. Covcath and Boone were the top two teams in the region that year. I believe Dixie and Newcath were also ranked ahead of Holmes all year. Holmes really wasn't that good that year. In 02/03 they were...that was the year they had Englemon, B. Smith, Fischer, D. Smith, Black and beat Covcath in the district championship.

I'd say their biggest weakness is not being able to finish teams off. They seem to get complacent and get a big lead and then let teams creep back in it because they are simply playing harder than Holmes.

 

If you look at the majority of the close games Holmes has had, it's because the other team was shooting the ball well from outside and Holmes had a lot of turnovers, both forced and unforced. Conner shot well from outside, but also got Pittman in foul trouble. If a team can get Pittman in foul trouble, they're very vulnerable because Arnold just simply isn't as intense as Pittman in the paint. The loss to Bryan Station, Holmes just simply got outshot. Morones and Ashford lit them up from outside.

 

The key to beating Holmes is being able to counter their runs. If you look at the Holmes threads throughout the season, you'll notice that they're going to put a 10-0 or 15-0 run on you at some point. If a team can counter the run, they're in good shape.

 

As far as pressing and playing a zone, it's only going to work for so long. Eventually Holmes is going to solve both and either light you up from outside with Riley or Rico against a zone, or they're going to get fast break dunks against the press.

 

Slowing the ball down works to an extent because it limits their offensive possessions, but at the same time, you're going to have to score points to beat them. You won't see Holmes lose a low scoring game. Their defense is too good.

 

Ok thanks Eta, Kinda what I thought you would say but wanted you opinion.

 

From what you say I think Boone is the type of team that can press some, and keep Holmes guessing. But they could show the possibility of playing some zone and making Holmes shoot well from the outside. Boone also has plenty of shooters and a inside threat that could cause foul situation for Pittman.

 

I'm not saying Boone is the favorite or should be picked, but with all these things a possiblity and with this big game being at home Boone has a legit chance. They also have been looking forward to this game for since last season and feel like they have something to prove. If any team is going to beat Holmes in my opinion its going to be a team that knows the personel very well, like a NKY team.

 

Holmes is very very good, and I wish them the best all year long. But I think they have been walking a tight rope as of late and are due to be upset.

  • Author
Ok thanks Eta, Kinda what I thought you would say but wanted you opinion.

 

From what you say I think Boone is the type of team that can press some, and keep Holmes guessing. But they could show the possibility of playing some zone and making Holmes shoot well from the outside. Boone also has plenty of shooters and a inside threat that could cause foul situation for Pittman.

 

The key for Boone is for Earls to stay down low and play as a true post player. If he tries to play out on the perimeter, as he sometimes like to do, Boone will get killed on the boards. As far as playing a zone, it will slow Holmes down, without a doubt. But at some point, you have to realize, with Holmes being a pretty good ball movement team, they're going to get open looks against the zone. We all know Pittman, Riley, Rico, Housely, JJ, Arnold, and D. Johnson are very capable of knocking down the 3. I personally don't see Boone playing a zone for the simple fact that they won't want Riley to burn them from outside.

 

I'm not saying Boone is the favorite or should be picked, but with all these things a possiblity and with this big game being at home Boone has a legit chance. They also have been looking forward to this game for since last season and feel like they have something to prove. If any team is going to beat Holmes in my opinion its going to be a team that knows the personel very well, like a NKY team.

 

I agree...if Boone is going to beat Holmes, it's going to be on their home floor. I expect them to be fired up and have a HUGE crowd out for this game. As far as knowing personnel, the one thing that does help Holmes is that Riley, D. Johnson, Arnold, and Housely have NEVER played against this Boone team and none of them played last year against them, so Boone will somewhat be guessing with them, other than what they've saw while scouting.

 

Holmes is very very good, and I wish them the best all year long. But I think they have been walking a tight rope as of late and are due to be upset.

 

I agree that they have been walking a tight rope lately, but honestly, I think that Scott game was a wake up call. They looked pretty darn good against Dixie and Highlands. But again, if anyone is going to beat them, it's going to Boone on their home floor. If Boone doesn't get them, I don't see Holmes losing a game before the state tourney.

Boone really doesn't match up that well with Holmes like some think:

 

6'0 Riley v 6'0 Gabbard:

Riley is hands down the better ball handler and has a much better shot from outside as well as a better mid range game. Gabbard is probably the stronger of the two though and may be more aggressive with the ball.

Adv: Holmes

 

6'2 D. Johnson/Housely v 6'0 Popp/Brown

I see this really being a tough match up for either Popp or Brown, depending on who starts. Both D. Johnson and Housely's size and strength defensively will make it tough for Popp and Brown to get shots and get penetration in the lane. Housely's aggressiveness on offense at attacking the rim is also going to cause problems for the Boone duo.

Adv: Holmes

 

6'4 J. Johnson v 6'3 Cotton:

From an athleticism stand point, this is probably the most even match up on the floor. JJ is a much better offensive player though and on defense he will make things tough for Cotton around the rim. Cotton's best chance at scoring is to try and get offensive rebounds.

Adv: Holmes

 

6'5 R. Johnson v 6'5 Mcfarland:

For some, this might look like the most even match up on the floor, but honestly I see it as a mismatch. Rico's size, strength, and quickness are going to make things tough on Mcfarland. No way Mcfarland can guard Rico out on the perimeter and down low I see him getting in foul trouble. Mcfarland is going to have to be hitting from outside to give Boone a chance because I don't see him scoring much around the rim.

Adv: Holmes

 

6'7 Pittman v 6'6 Earls

Offensively, Earls is probably more polished in the post but Pittman is better at finishing and more explosive. Earls is going to need to be physical around the rim and not let Pittman get the ball or he'll be in foul trouble before the end of the first quarter, as Pittman is just too quick for him to guard down low. If Earls can play aggressive and get Pittman in foul trouble, I like their chances a lot more, but as long as Pittman is in the game, things are going to be tough for Boone in the paint. I'd expect to see Pittman play out on the perimeter at times and take Earls off the dribble and use his quickness to get by the big fella.

Adv: Holmes

 

Bench:

No contest. Holmes is much deeper and I see Arnold presenting match up problems for Earls/Mcfarland as well. Keep an eye out for #20 Pierre Mayfield. I see him making a big contribution off the bench for Holmes, defensively.

 

Who does match up well or better than any one player on your team ETA?

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