While I'm sure it's nice to go to the playoffs a lot, in Professional Sports, anything but a World Championship is considered a failure. Simple as that.

 

 

False.

 

You seem to be a Reds fan. If anyone should know your above is false, its a Reds fan. You wouldn't swap the last 10 years records with the As and consider the Reds to be successful? I don't believe that.

Which is more likely to happen? I say the groundball that can now not be gotten to is more likely to happen (3rd out) vs the double.

 

I guess its obvious we disagree but I have enjoyed the banter.

 

I asked which is more likely to happen between one single or an extra base hit (two singles)

They are true professionals which every team would love to have. But they are not everyday players.

 

At one time (and that's the point you guys are conveniently missing) they were everyday players. Part-time players do not get 1500 hits unless they play 35 years.

I asked which is more likely to happen between one single or an extra base hit (two singles)

 

I know what you asked but you ignored my original point.

Classic response from Joe Morgan and many others.

 

However, explain to me why every other team besides teams like the A's deploy the "old school" mentality of putting a team together yet they never make the playoffs despite outspending the A's?

 

Its simply one example of traditional baseball logic that has failed MOST teams.

 

The reason the A's (and others) are successful has nothing to do with game management, etc. Largely it has to do with their early application of Sabermetrics (applying statistics like OBP, OPS, WHIP, etc.) to drafting baseball players.

 

The Red Sox took it a step further(the guy actually works in their front office now), applying Moneyball principles to Sabermetrics guys and look where it has landed them.

 

I wouldn't say moneyball has failed most teams, for the most part the (relative) highest paid players are also some of the games best players.

False.

 

You seem to be a Reds fan. If anyone should know your above is false, its a Reds fan. You wouldn't swap the last 10 years records with the As and consider the Reds to be successful? I don't believe that.

 

I am a Reds fan. Anything less than a Championship is a failure. Its that simple. I don't see how you can argue that. I do not consider the A's successful because they have not won a championship since '89. At the start of the season every team's goal is the Win the world series, not just get there. (Or just get to the playoffs).

They are true professionals which every team would love to have. But they are not everyday players.

 

:thumb:

At one time (and that's the point you guys are conveniently missing) they were everyday players. Part-time players do not get 1500 hits unless they play 35 years.

 

And there is a reason they aren't everyday players now.......:lol:

At one time (and that's the point you guys are conveniently missing) they were everyday players. Part-time players do not get 1500 hits unless they play 35 years.

 

Yeah, Sean Casey was a full time player on the Reds. You saw where that got them. Now's hes a bench player for the Sox and they are winning Championships.

Good info but let me point out flaws if I may be so bold.

 

I would say that , in reality, there is only one potential hole against most batters. Most are not adept at hitting the opposite way plus your pitcher can pitch to where his defense is to help minimize the chances of , say, a lefty going to the 6 hole.

 

The "Bako throws out only 30%" is only relevant on the stealing of 2nd situation. You know the game. You would surely agree that EVERY MLB catcher has a much better chance of throwing a runner out from 90 feet than he does from 127 feet, correct?

 

Lastly, even if I concede that a 35 year old Cabrera has "above average" speed by MLB standards, that's not enough to say he's likely to be safe at 3rd on a steal. Stealing 3rd requires great speed and/or a unique ability to read pitchers.

 

Granted, my next MLB win as a manager will be my first but your statement that "its pretty hard to argue with logic that has been working for years" is simply not correct unless you simply disregard the Moneyball-type of thinking.

 

As Billy Beane said, the old school thinking makes you draft guys that would look good selling jeans vs someone like Sean Casey or Scott Hatteberg - solid MLBers.

 

 

Then I shall do likewise. That simply isn't correct. First off you aren't talking about hitting the opposite way per se. Most major league hitters can hit the ball from say, the shortstop position to the right field line for a lefty or the reverse for a righty. It isn't as though the hitter has to hit a spot down the opposite foul line--part of every team's BP every day has to do with hitting to hole on a hit and run play. Secondly, if you have the pitcher locate his pitches to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball to the middle infield gap aren't you limiting his options and making it more likely that he throws the ball middle in? If, by your reasoning, hitters struggle to hit it the opposite way then by trying to keep the pitch away from that spot aren't you actually throwing to the hitter's strength and increasing the chance that he gets a hit--particularly an extrabase hit or homerun? Add that to the fact that if the hitter is left-handed as was the case today you are giving him a much better chance to hit the ball by the firstbaseman. Is a meaningless run worth those risks for a 1 in 3 chance that you get the baserunner? I actually did make one mistake in my thinking--it was Kevin Cash at catcher not Bako. Cash has thrown out 20 % of basestealers so the chance goes down to 1 in 5. Keep in mind it was a Hall of Famer with 600 career homeruns at the plate, I'd rather my pitcher be focuse on him. As for trying to get Cabrera at 3rd that's already been explained--there was no thirdbaseman, the shift was on. Most teams would have thrown the ball to third if there was someone there to receive it so under normal circumstances Cabrera would have stayed at second.

 

As for the Moneyball type of thinking, that is employed to draft and sign players. You are comparing apples to oranges.

The reason the A's (and others) are successful has nothing to do with game management, etc. Largely it has to do with their early application of Sabermetrics (applying statistics like OBP, OPS, WHIP, etc.) to drafting baseball players.

 

The Red Sox took it a step further(the guy actually works in their front office now), applying Moneyball principles to Sabermetrics guys and look where it has landed them.

 

I wouldn't say moneyball has failed most teams, for the most part the (relative) highest paid players are also some of the games best players.

 

1. Exactly. They eschewed conventional thinking that had been around for 100 years - just like the "guard the line" thinking.

 

2. The Red Sox (well one guy) figured out that if you can trash the old school thinking AND have bottomless pockets, you can dominate MLB teams that think you have to draft a guy that "looks good."

 

3. Who said "Moneyball" failed most teams. Heck, more teams need to go that route.

I know what you asked but you ignored my original point.

 

I ignored it because even if someone hits a single, you are still in a good position to work your way out of the inning. A double could be a different story.

I know what you asked but you ignored my original point.

 

OK we are playing the percentages game. Fine.

 

Yes the percentages are higher for a single than a double down the line. But which hit has a higher percentage of SCORING?? A single still leaves you with a lot of work to do.

Any chance we can take this to its own thread???

1. Exactly. They eschewed conventional thinking that had been around for 100 years - just like the "guard the line" thinking.

 

2. The Red Sox (well one guy) figured out that if you can trash the old school thinking AND have bottomless pockets, you can dominate MLB teams that think you have to draft a guy that "looks good."

 

3. Who said "Moneyball" failed most teams. Heck, more teams need to go that route.

 

The funny part is that your taking Sabermetrics and it's application of percentages and holding it up as the holy grail. Yet in the same breath you completely disregard the percentages of a runner scoring from first rather than second. So which one is it?