15 minutes ago, ROCK23 said:

Does anyone know if there's any chance Trinity will play their 3rd and/or 4th round games at home? Those would be the only games I'd be able to make it to this year.

As it stands currently, expect to travel to Paducah in the 3rd round, and 4th round at DuPont Manual Stadium.

1. Frederick Douglass 0.77468

2. Dupont Manual 0.71912

3. Madison Central 0.66363

4. McCracken County 0.64161

5. Trinity (Louisville) 0.63256

6. South Warren 0.61947

7. Lafayette 0.61502

8. Eastern 0.59518

9. Bullitt East 0.55211

10. George Rogers Clark 0.54986

11. North Hardin 0.53971

12. Bryan Station 0.52967

13. Simon Kenton 0.52119

14. Saint Xavier 0.52022

15. Christian County 0.5126

16. Larry A Ryle 0.51145

17. Campbell County 0.50244

18. Male 0.49713

19. Oldham County 0.47923

20. Paul Laurence Dunbar 0.45896

21. Henderson County 0.45836

22. Pleasure Ridge Park 0.43022

23. Tates Creek 0.42157

24. Ballard 0.39912

25. Meade County 0.39426

26. Great Crossing 0.38197

27. Daviess County 0.37608

28. Southern 0.36095

29. Fern Creek 0.35774

30. Central Hardin 0.34724

31. Henry Clay 0.28241

1. Frederick Douglass 0.7668

2. Dupont Manual 0.71038

3. Madison Central 0.65067

4. McCracken County 0.64091

5. Trinity (Louisville) 0.626

6. South Warren 0.62088

7. Lafayette 0.59863

8. North Hardin 0.5565

9. Bullitt East 0.55052

10. Eastern 0.55002

11. Bryan Station 0.54928

12. George Rogers Clark 0.53438

13. Oldham County 0.52318

14. Larry A Ryle 0.51037

15. Saint Xavier 0.50757

16. Male 0.50668

17. Henderson County 0.48686

18. Paul Laurence Dunbar 0.48414

19. Christian County 0.47983

20. Simon Kenton 0.47262

21. Campbell County 0.46741

22. Pleasure Ridge Park 0.42627

23. Great Crossing 0.42469

24. Tates Creek 0.414

25. Ballard 0.40775

26. Meade County 0.39543

27. Daviess County 0.3759

28. Southern 0.35626

29. Central Hardin 0.35412

30. Fern Creek 0.35191

31. Henry Clay 0.30062

49 minutes ago, theguru said:

Frederick Douglass 0.7668

I will preface this by saying any 6A RPI that does not have Trinity on top does not have a lot of creditability. However, the Broncos go on the road and defeat the #3 ranked RPI team and drop almost a whole point while Manual goes on the road and defeats the #14 ranked team and go up almost a point. Plus St. X loses at home by 26 and their RPI goes up about 1/2 a point and in turn Madison Central loses at home by just 7 to the #1 ranked team in RPI and their RPI drops by about 8/10 of a point. It's just no rhyme or reason. I like @Tigerpride94 rating scale a lot better.

3 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

I will preface this by saying any 6A RPI that does not have Trinity on top does not have a lot of creditability. However, the Broncos go on the road and defeat the #3 ranked RPI team and drop almost a whole point while Manual goes on the road and defeats the #14 ranked team and go up almost a point. Plus St. X loses at home by 26 and their RPI goes up about 1/2 a point and in turn Madison Central loses at home by just 7 to the #1 ranked team in RPI and their RPI drops by about 8/10 of a point. It's just no rhyme or reason. I like @Tigerpride94 rating scale a lot better.

I like the TP94 Power Ratings too but RPI is a formula, correct? And what I mean is, that is the math mathing based on numerous other games, correct?

When Anderson (OH), Christian Brothers, Baylor, Cincinnati St. X and Cincinnati Moeller have the same value as Male, Henderson County and Dunbar, there is a formula issue.

34 minutes ago, theguru said:

I like the TP94 Power Ratings too but RPI is a formula, correct? And what I mean is, that is the math mathing based on numerous other games, correct?

So many factors in RPI like class factor, out of state opponents factor of .500 on top of the RPI formula of Win %, Opponents win %, and opponents of opponents %. Too me it's garbage and why NCAA doesn't use it anymore for basketball tournament selection. KHSAA should use HSratings.com or Massey Ratings.

3 minutes ago, Tigerpride94 said:

So many factors in RPI like class factor, out of state opponents factor of .500 on top of the RPI formula of Win %, Opponents win %, and opponents of opponents %. Too me it's garbage and why NCAA doesn't use it anymore for basketball tournament selection. KHSAA should use HSratings.com or Massey Ratings.

We are in lockstep. The point I was making is RPI is science, even if it is bad science.

3 hours ago, theguru said:

We are in lockstep. The point I was making is RPI is science, even if it is bad science.

The RPI uses several factors in its formula: the standard rules, Winning Percentage (WP), the Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OWP), and the Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OOWP). 

An additional factor in the formula is that, for non-KHSAA schools, WP is set to .5160. 

A class factor is added to the formula to give more weight to a game when a school “Plays Up” by playing a higher class and give less weight to games when a school “Plays Down” by playing a lower class (after exhausting two allowed “Playing Down” exemptions). This weight adjusts a win's value based on the team’s class and the opponent’s class. 

The Play Up factor doesn’t really apply to Trinity or any other 6A school.  Trinity and many Northern Kentucky Schools fully understand how their 5 non-KHSAA games affect their 2026 RPI, even if the fans don’t.   In 2021, Trinity had 6 non-KHSAA games and a 18th RPI; in 2022, 6 non-KHSAA games and an 11th RPI; in 2023, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2024, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 3rd RPI; in 2025, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2026, 5 non-KHSAA games and a 5th RPI.     Trinity's current schedule is by far the toughest in the State, so is .5160 fair for the 5 non-KHSAA schools?   If the non-KHSAA schools used the same RPI rules, we might be able to give them a higher WP than .5160, but they don’t.  The rules don't allow a special calculation for every non-KHSAA opponent; a standard .5160 seems fair.  The .5160 WP factor is supposed to be reviewable; not sure if anyone has requested a change.  Is Trinity aware of the formula factor when making their schedule? Yes.  Trinity is the best team in Kentucky, and I don’t think they care about the RPI. They have been the lower seed for the last two years and still won.

I know many don’t like the current RPI; it does have flaws.  Smaller schools can game the factors by using the Play Up factor to boost their RPI, but 6A schools can't.   

Looking only at the last four state championships, RPIs are often very close within each class, sometimes going down to the very last game of the regular season.   I would consider it a success if both championship-game opponents were #1, #2, #3, or #4, which has happened in 20 of 24 games (83.33%); an opponent outside the top four has happened four times since 2022.     An RPI #1, #2, #3, or #4 has won the State Championship 91.66% of the time.  So, is there a real problem?

5 hours ago, SapperSteel said:

The RPI uses several factors in its formula: the standard rules, Winning Percentage (WP), the Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OWP), and the Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OOWP). 

An additional factor in the formula is that, for non-KHSAA schools, WP is set to .5160. 

A class factor is added to the formula to give more weight to a game when a school “Plays Up” by playing a higher class and give less weight to games when a school “Plays Down” by playing a lower class (after exhausting two allowed “Playing Down” exemptions). This weight adjusts a win's value based on the team’s class and the opponent’s class. 

The Play Up factor doesn’t really apply to Trinity or any other 6A school.  Trinity and many Northern Kentucky Schools fully understand how their 5 non-KHSAA games affect their 2026 RPI, even if the fans don’t.   In 2021, Trinity had 6 non-KHSAA games and a 18th RPI; in 2022, 6 non-KHSAA games and an 11th RPI; in 2023, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2024, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 3rd RPI; in 2025, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2026, 5 non-KHSAA games and a 5th RPI.     Trinity's current schedule is by far the toughest in the State, so is .5160 fair for the 5 non-KHSAA schools?   If the non-KHSAA schools used the same RPI rules, we might be able to give them a higher WP than .5160, but they don’t.  The rules don't allow a special calculation for every non-KHSAA opponent; a standard .5160 seems fair.  The .5160 WP factor is supposed to be reviewable; not sure if anyone has requested a change.  Is Trinity aware of the formula factor when making their schedule? Yes.  Trinity is the best team in Kentucky, and I don’t think they care about the RPI. They have been the lower seed for the last two years and still won.

I know many don’t like the current RPI; it does have flaws.  Smaller schools can game the factors by using the Play Up factor to boost their RPI, but 6A schools can't.   

Looking only at the last four state championships, RPIs are often very close within each class, sometimes going down to the very last game of the regular season.   I would consider it a success if both championship-game opponents were #1, #2, #3, or #4, which has happened in 20 of 24 games (83.33%); an opponent outside the top four has happened four times since 2022.     An RPI #1, #2, #3, or #4 has won the State Championship 91.66% of the time.  So, is there a real problem?

My issue with KHSAA RPI has nothing to do with how it does or does not impact state championship wins. And you are correct in that Trinity (in any sport) does not schedule opponents in order to “play the RPI game”.

My issue is 2-fold:

1. Any statistical/objective ranking system that in the past year ranked Assumption Volleyball 7th in the state while they were considered Top 10 in the country, or that ranked Trinity Baseball 2 nd in the state when they were considered #1 in the country, or that currently ranks Trinity Football 49th in the state when they are considered Top 30 in the country, or that gives a 6A football team less credit for beating Archbishop Moeller than it does for beating PRP, is simply a flawed and comical ranking system.

2. And while that flawed and comical ranking system has no post season bearing (not yet anyway) in any KHSAA sport other than football, it does indeed have post season bearing on seeding and home game hosting in football playoffs rounds 3 and 4.

Not the end of the world but at least let’s call a spade a spade.

On 10/11/2026 at 1:52 AM, SapperSteel said:

The RPI uses several factors in its formula: the standard rules, Winning Percentage (WP), the Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OWP), and the Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (OOWP). 

An additional factor in the formula is that, for non-KHSAA schools, WP is set to .5160. 

A class factor is added to the formula to give more weight to a game when a school “Plays Up” by playing a higher class and give less weight to games when a school “Plays Down” by playing a lower class (after exhausting two allowed “Playing Down” exemptions). This weight adjusts a win's value based on the team’s class and the opponent’s class. 

The Play Up factor doesn’t really apply to Trinity or any other 6A school.  Trinity and many Northern Kentucky Schools fully understand how their 5 non-KHSAA games affect their 2026 RPI, even if the fans don’t.   In 2021, Trinity had 6 non-KHSAA games and a 18th RPI; in 2022, 6 non-KHSAA games and an 11th RPI; in 2023, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2024, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 3rd RPI; in 2025, 3 non-KHSAA games and a 4th RPI; in 2026, 5 non-KHSAA games and a 5th RPI.     Trinity's current schedule is by far the toughest in the State, so is .5160 fair for the 5 non-KHSAA schools?   If the non-KHSAA schools used the same RPI rules, we might be able to give them a higher WP than .5160, but they don’t.  The rules don't allow a special calculation for every non-KHSAA opponent; a standard .5160 seems fair.  The .5160 WP factor is supposed to be reviewable; not sure if anyone has requested a change.  Is Trinity aware of the formula factor when making their schedule? Yes.  Trinity is the best team in Kentucky, and I don’t think they care about the RPI. They have been the lower seed for the last two years and still won.

I know many don’t like the current RPI; it does have flaws.  Smaller schools can game the factors by using the Play Up factor to boost their RPI, but 6A schools can't.   

Looking only at the last four state championships, RPIs are often very close within each class, sometimes going down to the very last game of the regular season.   I would consider it a success if both championship-game opponents were #1, #2, #3, or #4, which has happened in 20 of 24 games (83.33%); an opponent outside the top four has happened four times since 2022.     An RPI #1, #2, #3, or #4 has won the State Championship 91.66% of the time.  So, is there a real problem?

The comment that the Out of State (OOS) factor of 0.5610 is supposed to be reviewable piques my interest and leads to my comments.

No party should have to ask for a review. The entire model should be reviewed by the KHSAA every season and adjustments need to be made (if necessary), especially to any subjective factors such as OOS or up/down in class factors. I would start with adjusting the model to more accurately reflect the actual results to the expected results - we simple country actuaries (retired) call this Actual to Expected or A to E. Start with 2025 Expected and make adjustments to reflect 2025 Actual. Apply these adjustments to prior years and converge on better subjective factors.

Another point is in the past four seasons the team with the higher RPI has won 13 of 24 (54%) championships and when a number one RPI rated team is playing for the championship the number one teams are 8 of 17 (47%). Neither of these percentages would lead me to believe this model has much credibility. Adding to this, 2024 and 2025 are particularly telling in that higher rated teams are 4 of 12 and number ones are 3 of 9 in championship games. In the past two years the higher rated team winning has been 33% and the number one wins 50% for the past three years.

As stated above: 1 through 4 rated teams fill the semi-final bracket 91.67% of the time. The model to this point is showing a substantially higher level of credibility, however I would expect the number one team to win more than 8 of 24 championships (17 appearances).

I realize the biggest subjective factor in the playoffs is that the teams are composed of teenage boys and things (football and otherwise) that happen in their lives which RPI can never capture. But I would like to see a more robust rating system that is reviewed/updated every year.

My suggestions to improve the process are to annually update the model using actual results or use another rating system. Using another rating system would free up resources at the KHSAA to concentrate on other matters but I understand wanting to have more say/control of the process. Using another rating system would require back testing. This would help determine the best system to use.