I see these as the likely scenarios for round 3 (current RPI is the rank):

#16 Fairdale (District 4) at #3 Owensboro (District 1)
#14 Bowling Green (District 2) at #10 Atherton (District 3)

The bottom half is harder to predict because of the Cooper/Scott County matchup likely to come in the second round.  Currently these are your six teams likely to fill the four spots -

#12 Cooper (District 5)/#4 Scott County (District 6)
#2 Woodford County (District 6)

#1 Pulaski County (District ?
#6 North Laurel (District 8)/#7 South Laurel (District ?

(I'm predicting that the #2 seed Laurel school beats West Jessamine)

I think as long as Pulaski doesn't lose to Bell County, they'll stay #1. 

If Cooper wins, then Pulaski County will have the honor of hosting them.  If Scott County wins, then it should be a District 6 and District 8 matchup.

I see almost no way that Owensboro and Bowling Green aren't into the semis.  Similarly, I don't see any way that Bowling Green isn't on the road at the highest RPI team remaining.  Only mystery to me is whether Owensboro gets to host a game.  I think they'd be better served in that pursuit if Cooper beats Scott County, because I like Cooper to beat Pulaski County if that game takes place.  If Scott County wins, Pulaski County becomes pretty much a lock and then it's a coin toss between Woodford County and Scott County.  

 

District 5/6 matchups are almost set I believe. The Collins/South Oldham contest will determine the last two spots. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong... I am not sure where Round 2 matchups land after this.

Round 1:

#1 Woodford will host #4 Boone County

#2 Scott County will host #3 Connor

#1 Cooper will host #4 Collins/South Oldham

#2 Dixie will host #3 South Oldham/Collins

On 10/20/2025 at 10:30 PM, CoachStew said:

District 5/6 matchups are almost set I believe. The Collins/South Oldham contest will determine the last two spots. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong... I am not sure where Round 2 matchups land after this.

Round 1:

#1 Woodford will host #4 Boone County

#2 Scott County will host #3 Connor

#1 Cooper will host #4 Collins/South Oldham

#2 Dixie will host #3 South Oldham/Collins

Based off of just the higher seeds winning: 

2nd Round:

Cooper would host Scott County

Woodford would host Dixie 

No one cares, but the 7 teams Atherton has beaten currently have a combined 11-45 record, when they beat Iroquois on Friday, it will be 14-50. 

3rd round they would get North or Apollo, right? 

1 hour ago, Hungover_in_Andover said:

No one cares, but the 7 teams Atherton has beaten currently have a combined 11-45 record, when they beat Iroquois on Friday, it will be 14-50. 

3rd round they would get North or Apollo, right? 

Yes if either of those teams make it past BG

1	Pulaski County	5A	8	7	-	2			9	.82778	.65179	.54659	.68183
2	Owensboro	5A	1	7	-	2			9	.79445	.64647	.56306	.67324
3	Woodford County	5A	6	8	-	1			9	.90556	.55059	.54277	.67248
4	North Laurel	5A	8	7	-	2			9	.75285	.58157	.58250	.64179
5	Scott County	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.54754	.58700	.62849
6	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	7	-	2			9	.77994	.51042	.57252	.62338
7	Collins	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.54936	.53625	.61390
8	South Laurel	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.72339	.49579	.55724	.59389
9	Atherton	5A	3	8	-	1			9	.95557	.26882	.50857	.58111
10	Apollo	5A	1	5	-	4			9	.51751	.67782	.54030	.58046
11	Cooper	5A	5	6	-	3			9	.70000	.50829	.51974	.57883
12	South Oldham	5A	6	5	-	4			9	.62223	.54467	.52454	.56578
13	West Jessamine	5A	7	6	-	3			9	.70000	.47979	.47107	.55425
14	Bowling Green	5A	2	4	-	5			9	.44444	.69824	.49485	.54839
15	Greenwood	5A	2	5	-	4			9	.55556	.51368	.48587	.51999
16	Fairdale	5A	4	5	-	4			9	.57222	.50506	.46908	.51777
17	Graves County	5A	1	3	-	6			9	.30624	.68385	.54465	.50992
18	Dixie Heights	5A	5	4	-	5			9	.46111	.47617	.48192	.47262
19	Barren County	5A	2	4	-	5			9	.44444	.45789	.51711	.47095
20	Conner	5A	5	3	-	6			9	.33333	.57346	.50529	.46897
21	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	6			9	.29529	.58262	.52196	.46386
22	Anderson County	5A	6	3	-	6			9	.29173	.57978	.51869	.46064
23	Montgomery County	5A	7	3	-	6			9	.33333	.52378	.50736	.45220
24	Jeffersontown	5A	4	5	-	4			9	.49349	.36780	.41186	.42501
25	Butler	5A	3	3	-	6			9	.33333	.47832	.45853	.42164
26	Boone County	5A	5	4	-	5			9	.40640	.38174	.48550	.42150
27	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	4	-	5			9	.36148	.37689	.52901	.41713
28	Southwestern	5A	8	1	-	8			9	.08402	.58365	.56384	.40284
29	Seneca	5A	3	3	-	6			9	.32291	.40842	.46496	.39545
30	Madison Southern	5A	7	2	-	7			9	.23889	.44256	.48222	.38317
31	Grayson County	5A	2	4	-	5			9	.36148	.31882	.46421	.37737
32	North Bullitt	5A	4	3	-	6			9	.31883	.39393	.41155	.37293
33	Bullitt Central	5A	4	3	-	6			9	.33333	.35065	.44329	.37238
34	East Jessamine	5A	7	2	-	7			9	.22222	.41831	.47353	.36625
35	Warren Central	5A	2	3	-	6			9	.24845	.37059	.48540	.36229
36	Scott	5A	5	2	-	7			9	.22222	.39089	.45347	.35063
37	Moore	5A	4	3	-	6			9	.30432	.29110	.42791	.33677
38	Iroquois	5A	3	3	-	6			9	.20017	.38890	.38809	.32260

Let’s go Devils 6A win next week against the colonels should solidify home games until state for the Devils if they make it.

1	Pulaski County	5A	8	7	-	2			9	.82778	.65322	.55273	.68417
2	Owensboro	5A	1	8	-	2			10	.83000	.63691	.55283	.67927
3	Woodford County	5A	6	9	-	1			10	.93000	.52700	.54998	.67495
4	North Laurel	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.76450	.55925	.57844	.63685
5	Scott County	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.52788	.59095	.62279
6	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	8	-	2			10	.80195	.49220	.55022	.61802
7	Collins	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.54625	.52788	.61030
8	South Laurel	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.72339	.49675	.57305	.59896
9	Cooper	5A	5	7	-	3			10	.74501	.50142	.53203	.59586
10	Atherton	5A	3	8	-	1			9	.95557	.30145	.51045	.59309
11	Apollo	5A	1	5	-	4			9	.51751	.68510	.54633	.58481
12	West Jessamine	5A	7	6	-	3			9	.70000	.47632	.46782	.55206
13	Bowling Green	5A	2	4	-	6			10	.40000	.74173	.49930	.54939
14	South Oldham	5A	6	5	-	5			10	.56001	.54756	.52053	.54381
15	Greenwood	5A	2	5	-	4			9	.55556	.49242	.50277	.51762
16	Graves County	5A	1	3	-	6			9	.30624	.69503	.53979	.51238
17	Fairdale	5A	4	5	-	4			9	.57222	.49985	.45416	.51147
18	Barren County	5A	2	4	-	5			9	.44444	.46865	.52321	.47654
19	Conner	5A	5	3	-	6			9	.33333	.57591	.51098	.47153
20	Dixie Heights	5A	5	4	-	6			10	.41500	.49897	.49416	.46814
21	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	6			9	.29529	.57674	.53379	.46535
22	Anderson County	5A	6	3	-	6			9	.29173	.58027	.50832	.45770
23	Montgomery County	5A	7	3	-	6			9	.33333	.52790	.50831	.45392
24	Butler	5A	3	4	-	6			10	.35720	.50485	.47607	.44454
25	Boone County	5A	5	4	-	6			10	.36576	.44672	.48872	.43099
26	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	4	-	5			9	.36148	.39277	.52209	.42061
27	Southwestern	5A	8	1	-	9			10	.07562	.62234	.56080	.41253
28	Seneca	5A	3	3	-	6			9	.32291	.43286	.46996	.40551
29	Jeffersontown	5A	4	5	-	5			10	.44414	.33111	.41792	.39671
30	Madison Southern	5A	7	3	-	7			10	.30195	.39905	.49709	.39448
31	Grayson County	5A	2	4	-	5			9	.36148	.30785	.47284	.37612
32	Warren Central	5A	2	3	-	7			10	.22361	.40160	.49135	.36623
33	East Jessamine	5A	7	2	-	8			10	.20000	.44858	.46208	.36563
34	Bullitt Central	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.30000	.35780	.44390	.36340
35	Scott	5A	5	3	-	7			10	.24972	.38690	.46017	.36087
36	North Bullitt	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.28694	.33560	.42348	.34493
37	Moore	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.27389	.33919	.41324	.33855
38	Iroquois	5A	3	4	-	6			10	.23735	.34766	.41064	.32795

With the final RPI, I see these as the likely scenarios for round 3:

#17 Fairdale (District 4) at #2 Owensboro (District 1)
#13 Bowling Green (District 2) at #10 Atherton (District 3)

The bottom half is harder to predict because of the Cooper/Scott County matchup likely to come in the second round.  Currently these are your six teams likely to fill the four spots -

#9 Cooper (District 5)/#5 Scott County (District 6)
#3 Woodford County (District 6)

#1 Pulaski County (District 8 )
#4 North Laurel (District 8 )

North Laurel getting above Scott County the past two weeks had some real consequences.  Woodford County is likely going to have a favorable matchup with North Laurel in the third round, far more favorable than Pulaski County gets with the winner of Cooper/Scott County.  Ironically, this better reflects the BGP rankings where Woodford County should get the more desirable matchup.  If for some reason West Jessamine managed to beat North Laurel, that would change it up to where Pulaski County would host West Jessamine and Woodford County would have to deal with the Cooper/Scott County winner.

Owensboro also rising to #2 after the update two weeks ago means that they won't have to leave Rash Stadium at all. A lot hinges on that North Laurel/West Jessamine game.  Not only is it consequential to the Cooper/Scott County/Woodford County group, it's consequential to Owensboro.  If Pulaski County gets to host West Jessamine, it likely means Owensboro would be stuck with the winner of the Cooper/Scott County/Woodford County group in the state semifinals.  The Bowling Green/Atherton survivor would get a more favorable matchup at Pulaski County in that case, perhaps even be favored to reach the state finals.  If North Laurel emerges, and Cooper or Scott County visit Pulaski County, then it becomes likely that Owensboro would either host Woodford County (undesirable result if Pulaski County should pull a modest upset against Cooper or Scott County), or the Bowling Green/Atherton winner (the best of all draws for Owensboro, despite Bowling Green's potential).  That North Laurel/West Jessamine game is an absolute domino for so much.

With everything final this morning:

Coming our of Round 2 - In the East, I assume out of 5/6 it will be Woodford and Cooper (maybe Scott)

In 7/8 it looks like Pulaski and North Laurel.  

regional will be Pulaski vs. Cooper or Scott (goodbye Pulaski) and Woodford vs. N. Laurel

The East will be represented by Woodford and Cooper (or Scott)

In the WEST, going to be good games round 2, but I think BG/O to come out and Atherton, Fairdale.

O gets Fairdale and BG travels to Atherton.

O and BG to semis (or Atherton)

SEMI’s  O vs BG and Woodford hosting Scott or Cooper

 

If ATHERTON beats BG - O gets Cooper (or Atherton if Scott beats Cooper) and Woodford gets Atherton (or Scott if Scott beats Cooper).

 

 

1	Pulaski County	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.82062	.69503	.55380	.69662
2	Owensboro	5A	1	8	-	2			10	.83000	.64423	.54441	.67931
3	Woodford County	5A	6	9	-	1			10	.93000	.52587	.54136	.67196
4	North Laurel	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.76450	.55680	.57873	.63607
5	Scott County	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.52423	.58730	.62042
6	Atherton	5A	3	9	-	1			10	.96001	.37232	.50441	.61764
7	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	8	-	2			10	.80195	.48577	.54472	.61412
8	Collins	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.54094	.52370	.60719
9	Cooper	5A	5	7	-	3			10	.74501	.51406	.53160	.60015
10	South Laurel	5A	8	8	-	2			10	.72339	.49365	.57173	.59748
11	West Jessamine	5A	7	7	-	3			10	.74501	.45940	.46055	.55970
12	Apollo	5A	1	5	-	5			10	.46576	.65908	.53573	.55441
13	Bowling Green	5A	2	4	-	6			10	.40000	.74377	.49997	.55031
14	South Oldham	5A	6	5	-	5			10	.56001	.53079	.52512	.53931
15	Graves County	5A	1	4	-	6			10	.39062	.66621	.54250	.53264
16	Greenwood	5A	2	6	-	4			10	.57562	.49156	.51528	.52810
17	Fairdale	5A	4	6	-	4			10	.60195	.46473	.45629	.51022
18	Conner	5A	5	4	-	6			10	.41500	.52798	.50594	.48182
19	Barren County	5A	2	5	-	5			10	.48694	.42063	.53658	.47862
20	Dixie Heights	5A	5	4	-	6			10	.41500	.50697	.48939	.46951
21	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	7			10	.26576	.57772	.51230	.44891
22	Butler	5A	3	4	-	6			10	.35720	.49485	.49041	.44534
23	Anderson County	5A	6	3	-	7			10	.26256	.55635	.51212	.44025
24	Boone County	5A	5	4	-	6			10	.36576	.45732	.48719	.43423
25	Montgomery County	5A	7	3	-	7			10	.30000	.49902	.51472	.43407
26	Southwestern	5A	8	1	-	9			10	.07562	.63185	.55777	.41494
27	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	5	-	5			10	.38253	.35624	.50258	.40934
28	Seneca	5A	3	4	-	6			10	.34034	.40861	.47106	.40345
29	Jeffersontown	5A	4	5	-	5			10	.44414	.33500	.41853	.39826
30	Madison Southern	5A	7	3	-	7			10	.30195	.40085	.48751	.39223
31	Grayson County	5A	2	4	-	6			10	.32534	.35369	.46611	.37749
32	Warren Central	5A	2	3	-	7			10	.22361	.40180	.49282	.36674
33	Bullitt Central	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.30000	.36791	.43546	.36441
34	Scott	5A	5	3	-	7			10	.24972	.39750	.45841	.36405
35	East Jessamine	5A	7	2	-	8			10	.20000	.44684	.45790	.36377
36	North Bullitt	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.28694	.33512	.42087	.34398
37	Moore	5A	4	3	-	7			10	.27389	.34722	.40771	.33970
38	Iroquois	5A	3	4	-	6			10	.23735	.34998	.41690	.33064