Final.

 

 

Closer than I would have expected. I was impresed with ACS when Tilghman played them. Figured they would eventually pull away some. 

Allen County-Scottsville probably should have won by more but they simply could not get stops. Repeatedly gave up passes over the middle to give up big conversions. One of the biggest plays was when Hopkinsville scored on the play at the end of the first half - fittingly a pass right up the middle. Tiger tipped the ball on a pass out in front of him and then gathers it out of the air and was off to the races. That allowed Hopkinsville to gain the lead and then get a two possession lead since they started the second half with possession. But likewise, the Tigers never could stop Allen County-Scottsville in the second half, and the Patriot drives got shorter and shorter as the Tigers seemed to grow fatigued and unable to withstand the rushing attack. In the end, three stops were key. First, Allen County-Scottsville got a stop on a two point try to stay within seven at 28-21. Then with the game tied, the Patriots forced Hopkinsville to punt, the only punt of the half by either team. Finally, holding a two point lead after Hopkinsville’s final touchdown, the Patriots picked off the two point pass. It wasn’t as easy as they liked, but they clinched their home playoff game. 
 

On the other side of the field, a brutal turn of events tonight. The Tigers were that close to a win that combined with Warren East’s loss to Logan County would have given THEM the two seed and a home playoff game. Now, they fall into a three way tie for third, and Logan County will definitely move ahead of them after tonight, leaving Hopkinsville on the outside looking in with one week to go. 

RPI currently 

Warren East .53662

Logan County .49213

Hopkinsville .48602

 

Looking ahead to next week

Warren East hosts 5-4 Franklin Simpson (4A)

Logan County hosts 8-1 South Warren (5A)

Hopkinsville hosts 1-8 Pleasure Ridge Park (6A).

 

That’s an auto loss for Logan County. East appears far enough ahead that I think it doesn’t matter what happens in their game. (Franklin-Simpson is 3A btw - it is weird to me as well.) So I think the drama may lie in that Hopkinsville/PRP game. Obviously the winning percentage of PRP won’t help Hopkinsville but a win, plus the boost of beating a higher class team, and coupled with a Logan County loss, that just might be enough to get the Tigers in. 

@DragonFire Hope we do get the Tigers in the playoffs, they’ve really grown as a team over the course of the season.

8 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

That’s an auto loss for Logan County. East appears far enough ahead that I think it doesn’t matter what happens in their game. (Franklin-Simpson is 3A btw - it is weird to me as well.) So I think the drama may lie in that Hopkinsville/PRP game. Obviously the winning percentage of PRP won’t help Hopkinsville but a win, plus the boost of beating a higher class team, and coupled with a Logan County loss, that just might be enough to get the Tigers in. 

With as close as the current RPI is between Logan/Hopkinsville I guess the question does a Win & a 6A boost outweigh the negative effect of PRP’s current 1-8 record. 

16 hours ago, WKY_Football said:

With as close as the current RPI is between Logan/Hopkinsville I guess the question does a Win & a 6A boost outweigh the negative effect of PRP’s current 1-8 record. 

Let me preface in saying there's much about the KHSAA RPI that I struggle to comprehend.  I consider myself very good at math, and yet I have a lot of trouble tracking what they're doing and making the math add up. When working on this post, I tracked Hopkinsville's win percentage counting the additional weight gained from beating Christian County (a 6A team) and I got it right on the nose of what the KHSAA lists Hopkinsville's WP as on the RPI site.  When I plugged in the exact numbers they have for OWP, I cannot get their value they have currently in any way (.54899).  If I don't include PRP in the numbers currently, I get a value of .574061.  If I do include them, I get .527766.  So I don't know whether they're included currently or not.  If I don't include them in OOWP, I get .0537479 which is the value the KHSAA has listed for Hopkinsville currently on the site.  So it's all weird - I'm going to treat it as if PRP is not currently included in their numbers because that would have the maximum effect of their negative impact.  Which means it'll either be that or better for Hopkinsville.  And I know for a fact what it will do Hopkinsville's win percentage.

So, all that said, if Hopkinsville wins, thanks to the added weight of the class change, that's a win percentage value of 1.322725.  That would raise their win percentage from .369192 to .464545.  That's 35% of their total RPI, and would change that part of the sum from .129217 to .162591 - an increase of .0333 (roughly).  Without PRP included in their current OWP numbers, I have their OWP as .574061 and RPI value from that at .200921.  PRP's 1-9 record would be .1 WP (since they will use their second lower class exemption on this game and therefore all of their WP values will be either 1 or 0).  That drops Hopkinsville's OWP to .526655 and RPI value from that to .184329.  That's a difference of .016592.  (For reference, if PRP is already included in their RPI, the impact would be much less, as their OWP would currently be .184718 in RPI value, and that's a miniscule difference.)  OOWP for PRP is slightly higher than the ones Hopkinsville currently has, so if it isn't currently included, it will actually help Hopkinsville's RPI.  And if it is, then it's not a worry in what we're trying to figure out here.

TL/DR - I estimate that the win itself will raise Hopkinsville's RPI by .0333 and PRP's poor record cost them around .016592, meaning the win itself is basically double the impact of the loss, I.e. a good thing.  The net gain (.016708) is in excess of the current difference in RPI between Logan County and Hopkinsville, which is .00541, roughly three times that margin.  And that is also not taking into account the certain loss Logan County is facing, where Logan's WP is going to drop from .44444 to .4, which will cost them just under .02 of RPI value - which is almost four times the current margin they have. 

REALLY TL/DR - If I'm interpreting this all correctly, I believe that if Hopkinsville beats PRP, barring a miraculous win by Logan County over South Warren, the Tigers will make the playoffs.

DF, I really tried the hardest I could to follow. Impressive how you put it all together. 
 

That post is a 10/10 and then some. 

1 minute ago, BillNye said:

DF, I really tried the hardest I could to follow. Impressive how you put it all together. 
 

That post is a 10/10 and then some. 

It makes my head hurt just reading it.  That is a term paper for me in math. 

8 minutes ago, theguru said:

It makes my head hurt just reading it.  That is a term paper for me in math. 

It used to be much, much simpler under the old tiebreaker format. I enjoyed the challenge of trying to find an answer to what were likely going to see from next week’s results, but man, it is definitely tougher to figure and even moreso to explain!

Just now, DragonFire said:

It used to be much, much simpler under the old tiebreaker format. I enjoyed the challenge of trying to find an answer to what were likely going to see from next week’s results, but man, it is definitely tougher to figure and even moreso to explain!

I know it is complicated and I am always thankful when you "super brains" figure it out for us.