South Oldham at Simon Kenton Predictions/Updates

[ColonelMike]

WHO:  South Oldham at Simon Kenton

WHEN:  Friday, 2/19/21

WHERE:  Simon Kenton HS

BROADCAST:   Free live video coverage begins at 7 pm on www.pegasussportsky.com

Two of the perennial powers in the 8th region go at it Friday at Simon Kenton as South Oldham HS comes to town.

South Oldham is 3-3 after dropping games to Covington Holy Cross by 12 and district rival North Oldham by 4.

Simon Kenton (8-5) has rebounded from a 5 game stretch in which the Pioneers dropped 4 of 5 games to win their last two, including an impressive 80-57 domination of Walton-Verona on Saturday in the game that decided the #1 seed in the 32nd district tournament.

South, as always, has one of the 8th Region's best shooting teams, coming into the game shooting just over 49% from the floor and 41.6% from beyond the arc.  The Dragons are shooting just over half their shots beyond the arc, and are averaging over 10 made threes a contest.   South is actually making threes on a pace comparable to last year's Dragon squad, who finished with the third-most made threes in KY history.  Unfortunately, South won't play enough games to actually make that many threes this year.   

As always, the Dragons have multiple offensive weapons.   Junior Ben Michel leads the Dragons at 13.5 ppg.   Point guard Cole Davis averages 12.5 ppg and Cayden Brown averages 10.5 ppg.   Zack Dolan pitches in 7.7 ppg.

Five players are shooting over 60% from the floor (although one of those has appeared in only one game), and seven players are hitting 50% plus.   Five players are hitting at least one three a game, and all five are shooting over 40%, including freshman Christian Veirs (7 of 10, 70%) and Zack Dolan (12 of 20, 60%).   

It's the free throw shooting that's a little odd for South....in the last twelve seasons, South has only shot "below average" once - in 2008-9, when the Dragons shot just 65% from the stripe.    Since then, South has hit over 70% of their freebies as a team 8 seasons - including the last five straight.   Last year's team shot 74.7% at the line - and that paled next to the 2018-19 team (78.0%) and the 2015-16 team (77.5%).

 

Trent Steiner, as always, has SK in the thick of the 8th Region conversation.    The Pioneers feature the favorite for the 8th Region Player of the Year award, Kelly Niece, who just scored his 2,000th point the other day.    

The Pioneers are putting up the points, averaging a region-best 71 ppg.   The Pioneers scored 80 in a 23-point win over a good Walton-Verona team on Saturday; it was their fifth game of the season in which the Pioneers scored 80 or more points.

Like South, SK is one of the top shooting teams in the region, shooting 50.5% overall from the field, including a respectable 37.2% from beyond the arc.   At the line, the Pioneers are hitting 74.9% of their shots.   8 of the 12 players who have shot free throws are hitting over 70% at the line.

Niece leads the way, averaging 27.6 ppg, plus 4.8 rebounds.    Niece is hitting 57.6% from the floor, including 42.9% from beyond the arc (29 of 68)  Isaac Miller provides solid support, averaging 14.2.   No other Pioneer averages in double digits, but the remaining 30 ppg (roughly) is being divvied up by a wide range of players, including freshman Travis Krohman (6.9 ppg), Andrew Smith (5.3 ppg), and Hayden Carson (6.1 ppg).   

Krohman is already making noise.   Just a freshman, he's hit 25 of 63 threes for 39.7%, second only to Niece in terms of made threes.

SK attacks the glass by committee, but Justin Eversole is the statistical leader, averaging 5.8 rebounds per game.  He's really come on strong of late; in the last four games, he's recorded rebound totals of 10 (vs. Scott High), 8 (vs. Beechwood) and 9 (vs. Walton-Verona).    He's averaged 7.4 rebounds over the last 8 games.

Pegasus goes on the air at 7 pm at www.pegasussportsky.com

 

 

[dragon man]

As always... a solid write up on this game Colonel Mike.  Simon Kenton is a good team, and Niece is a really tough player.  He can shoot, drive, and pass to his teammates.  I think these teams are fairly evenly matched.  So, I expect a close one.

South has had its ups and downs... and these quarantines aren't helping anything.  After losing the last 2 games, the Dragons need to come out & play hard & fast.  Ball movement, getting the extra pass & finding open shooters is important for them.  I expect the Dragons will be hungry for a win.  

[Mojocat]

Good write-up, Colonel Mike, as per usual.  One thing to note, getting a true statistical picture of South senior Cayden Brown from the KHSAA website is a little challenging.  You may notice, there is a Cayden Brown, who has 4 games worth of stats, and a Caiden Brown, who has 2 games.  Those of course are one and the same, so you have to do a little math to get to a right answer.

Like some other squads, South Oldham is suffering a bit under Covid related quarantines. They got off to a good start, at least in this person’s opinion, and through 4 games seemed to be coming around nicely.  Then the first 10 day quarantine - coming out of which they had a single practice and then back to back games against Holy Cross and North Oldham.  They practiced the day after the North game - then got hit with the second quarantine.  This time, there will be zero practice time before back to back games against Simon Kenton and Christian Academy. At that point, if I’m counting right.....from the Henry County Game on January 23 thru the CAL game on February, South will have had 4 practices.  Reminder, this is a team that had 1 returning varsity player with any real experience at all.  Missing basically all the normal summer and fall practice time was certainly not ideal.  Now you go a month in the middle of the season and have very limited practice time.  It’s ......a lot to ask.  Maybe it’s just me, but the team felt a bit off when it returned the last time from quarantine, in the Holy Cross and North Oldham games.  As I say, they were coming along nicely in those first 4 games, and I didn’t have the same feeling in terms of energy or momentum when they came back.  Now, another 10 day break.  So we’ll see.

[ColonelMike]

I just noticed that they had Cayden in there twice....as "Caiden" and as "Cayden"....LOL!!!

South has been hit very hard by various quarantines.    We've got several 8th Region teams in that boat - South Oldham, North Oldham, Anderson County, Carroll County...it's playing havoc with player development.

It's been brutal.

 

[ColonelMike]

This game is still "on" for tomorrow night!   (so far!)

It's been a LONG week (for me) without basketball!

Pegasus Sports will go "on air" at 7 pm ET 

www.pegasussportsky.com

[ColonelMike]

Looks like this one is still "on".   Cross your fingers.   

[ColonelMike]

Nobody's really stopped Niece this year, the leading scorer in Region 8 at just under 28 ppg.  Interestingly, Niece is averaging 30 ppg in the Pioneers' 5 losses, with two games of over 30 points (35 and a season-high 42).   

So - an interesting defensive dilemma for South.  The age-old question (answered differently by different coaches):   throw everything at the stud to try to keep him down, or just try to make sure the stud doesn't go "nuclear" and shut down everyone else, in the theory that the stud can't beat you by himself without decent support?

There's no "right" answer - everyone has an opinion - but Niece can sure make you look "wrong" at times....

For SK, the question probably has a more straight-forward answer.   The Pioneers face a South Oldham team that has a bevy of shooters.   It seems that everyone on the roster is capable of 15-20 points on any given night, and they all shoot lights-out.  Five different Dragons have led the team in scoring - in just six games.  You pretty much have to play the Dragons "straight-up".

Players / Things to Watch Tonight:

Simon Kenton:

Kelly Niece.   Any questions?

SK Free Throw Shooters:   SK has missed just 3 FTs in the last 3 games.   They are 29 of 32....90.6%.    At 74.9%, SK is the top free throw shooting team in the region, and #12 in the state.

Justin Eversole.   Eversole has been very active on the boards in the last 8 games, averaging over 7 a game during that stretch.   His success on the glass could be the tipping point in this game. 

South Oldham

Ben Michel - The 6'6" junior will be a matchup challenge for the smaller Pioneers.   How will the Pioneers choose to defend him?   He is a tremendous three-point shooter, but has a strong drive to the basket, and should have a good size advantage over pretty much anyone guarding him tonight.

Zack Dolan - the hottest Dragon when South went into this last quarantine.   How badly has the layoff cooled him off - if at all?

South three point shooters - South is hitting nearly 42% beyond the arc, and averaging over 10 makes per gtame.   When the Dragons are in a rhythm beyond the arc, they also open up the lanes more for drives to the basket.   Usually, when South is clicking beyond the arc, it means that the Dragons are passing the ball exceptionally well.  (In South's last game, a 4-point loss to North Oldham, South hit a season-low 5 three pointers).

 

 

[ConverseAllStar]

If South Oldham is coming off a full 10-day break with limited practices, it will be tough to keep up with a strong Simon Kenton team.  The Dragons will hope that this week's snow days have slowed SK down a bit!

[ColonelMike]

All - unfortunately, I will not be able to broadcast the South vs. SK game after all.   Thanks to the weather, COVID, injuries (sledding!), and a host of other issues, the available Pegasus crew for tonight came down to ME.  It was going to be Mike running the camera...Mike doing play-by-play....Mike doing color commentary.....might have been just a bit too much MIKE.

Unfortunate.  This will be a fun game to watch, I think.

Pegasus will be back on the air tomorrow night for the South vs. CAL game in Crestwood.

My apologies to all; we'll "see you" tomorrow night.

[ColonelMike]

6 minutes ago, ColonelMike said:

All - unfortunately, I will not be able to broadcast the South vs. SK game after all.   Thanks to the weather, COVID, injuries (sledding!), and a host of other issues, the available Pegasus crew for tonight came down to ME.  It was going to be Mike running the camera...Mike doing play-by-play....Mike doing color commentary.....might have been just a bit too much MIKE.

Unfortunate.  This will be a fun game to watch, I think.

Pegasus will be back on the air tomorrow night for the South vs. CAL game in Crestwood.

My apologies to all; we'll "see you" tomorrow night.

Well, how 'bout that?   I just posted this, and a cameraman "fell into my lap", so to speak.

You're going to be stuck listening to "Mike" all the time, but we have a cameraman, so we'll do the game!!   

Yay!   🥳

Coverage begins at 7 pm on www.pegasussportsky.com

[Mojocat]

1 hour ago, ConverseAllStar said:

If South Oldham is coming off a full 10-day break with limited practices, it will be tough to keep up with a strong Simon Kenton team.  The Dragons will hope that this week's snow days have slowed SK down a bit!

It's a 10 day break with no practices at all.  4 practices in 4 weeks.  I said earlier, the first 4 games I was pleasantly surprised - they were better than I expected, frankly, and looked to be rounding into nice form.  Then 10 days off and......when they resumed play they looked sluggish.  Or something.  Followed by another 10 day break.  So I'm curious what this will look like.  My hope is it's something like what Cousin Eddie said about his daughter, "She falls down a well, her eyes go cross. She gets kicked by a mule. They go back. I don't know..."  Maybe we have one quarantine, they get sluggish, have another quarantine, they go back.  I don't know!

[ConverseAllStar]

5 minutes ago, Mojocat said:

It's a 10 day break with no practices at all.  4 practices in 4 weeks.  I said earlier, the first 4 games I was pleasantly surprised - they were better than I expected, frankly, and looked to be rounding into nice form.  Then 10 days off and......when they resumed play they looked sluggish.  Or something.  Followed by another 10 day break.  So I'm curious what this will look like.  My hope is it's something like what Cousin Eddie said about his daughter, "She falls down a well, her eyes go cross. She gets kicked by a mule. They go back. I don't know..."  Maybe we have one quarantine, they get sluggish, have another quarantine, they go back.  I don't know!

LOL - I hope the "commodes" aren't full tonight!

[4 Quarters]

South in a close one.

[ColonelMike]

Folks, I'm going to have to skip the updates tonight.   We are getting very little internet bandwidth here, and I'm just hoping I can get a good signal out.   I'm shutting down everything else that is using the internet to try to push out the best signal.   Pregame in 15 minutes!

CM

[BBN_34]

This reffing crew seems to love blowing their whistles quite a bit.