One good thing, for us on the Gulf side of the state, is that Dorian is pushing Tropical Disturbance #2 south-southwest toward Mexico. Not good for Mexico, though. #2 has a 60% chance of turning into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

 

Yeah I've been watching that one. There are two more systems just off the coast of Africa that we need to watch also. The tropical wave just off the coast of Africa is the one we should really keep an eye on.

 

 

Dorian has been downgraded to a category 3 hurricane.

 

A slow

north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the

core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday

evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful

hurricane during the next couple of days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently

reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

 

 

 

 

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in the shelter.

 

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

 

It's hard to believe, but we got some outer band action this afternoon. We had a squall about 4:30 pm. Nothing major, but it felt like a squall as oppose to the normal afternoon storm. Lotta wind. Lotta rain. Not too much in the way of theatrics (thunder and lightning). The event came on quick and did not last long. Also it came in from the northeast.

NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection that are causing winds of at least tropical-storm-force along portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then shows a very slow weakening thereafter. The system is expected to maintain close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

 

 

 

 

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of

Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay is increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

 

3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern North Carolina.

 

 

Great job @nWo as always!

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.

 

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently

reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

 

 

 

 

Let's not forget that severe thunderstorms will also be possible for portions both South and North Carolina. Isolated tornadoes will be possible Thursday in association with Hurricane Dorian from northern coastal South Carolina through coastal North Carolina.

 

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

 

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

 

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in

Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport.

 

 

 

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash flooding is expected.

 

 

 

Check out this absolutely bonkers satellite photo that shows how much of Grand Bahama island was under water when Hurricane Dorian hit on Monday. The yellow outline shows where the ocean used to meet the beach.

 

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forwarding speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the

southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night.

 

 

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.

However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

 

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently

reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (118 km/h).