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Cat. 1 Hurricane Dorian (update)


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This is for those who might have interests in around Florida for late this weekend and early next week.

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move

across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday

while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

 

The first map is the most likely time for the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds.

 

203926_most_likely_toa_34.png

 

The following has the cone that contains the probable path of the storm center.

 

203926_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

The following simulation is from the GFS Southeast Radar. Take note that for now Dorian is forecast to strengthen just before landfall in Florida. It may become a category 1 hurricane just before landfall.

 

64-nodither.gif

 

Check back for updates.

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From the National Hurricane Center:

 

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

 

 

As of this morning, Doran is now forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday morning. It may strengthen to a category 2 by the time it makes probable landfall on the southeast coast of the United States.

 

084950_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

084950_most_likely_toa_34.png

 

GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

 

GOES16-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-625x375.gif

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Dorian is now forecast to become a category 3 major hurricane before it makes landfall on the southeast U.S. coast sometime late this weekend.

 

Saffir-Simpson-Scale.jpg

 

The latest information from the National Hurricane Center has Florida in the bullseye for landfall.

 

204641_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

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Flordia Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for Floridians to prepare for Dorian.

 

Tallahassee, Fla. – Today, Governor Ron DeSantis issued Executive Order 19-189, declaring a state of emergency for counties in the path of Hurricane Dorian. The Governor is urging all Floridians on the East Coast to prepare for impacts, as the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center project Hurricane Dorian will make landfall on Florida’s East Coast as a major hurricane.

 

By declaring a state of emergency, Governor DeSantis is ensuring that state and local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to prepare. The State Emergency Operations Center will activate to a Level 2 on Thursday morning, enhancing the coordination between federal, state and local emergency management agencies.

 

Governor Ron DeSantis Declares State of Emergency, Urges Floridians to Prepare for Hurricane Dorian

 

This the latest Goes 16 Puerto Rico satellite imagery. Everyone can plainly see how Dorian is gaining strength and is taken on a more classic hurricane look.

 

GOES16-PR-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

I will update in the morning.

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Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48 hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to the north and a mid- to the upper-level low retrograding westward across the Straits of Florida. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches Florida.

 

084434_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

084434_most_likely_toa_34.png

 

GOES16-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-625x375.gif

 

GOES16-PR-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

GOES16-PR-13-600x600.gif

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Dorian is now forecast to maybe become a category 4 hurricane by landfall late this weekend.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.

 

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur.

 

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week.

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Nobody's screwing around with this one, here, given it will be Tuesday afternoon before it even gets close. Gas is getting hard to come by. I went to Publix to get ice and chili for the Wisconsin/USF tailgate tomorrow and all the bread and water was gone. Oddly enough, the can goods were still there for the most part. I am pretty well set, I think.

 

@coldweatherfan, if you guys feel threatened by storm surge, pm or text me. I will give you my address.

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Here is the very latest information from the National Hurricane Center on Dorian. Dorian is now a category 2 hurricane. It is forecast to become a major storm later today. A major hurricane is one with sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph. That means Dorain will be upgraded to at least a category 3 storm.

 

Saffir-Simpson-Scale.jpg

 

This is the public advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

 

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend.

 

090144_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

090144_most_likely_toa_34.png

 

090144WPCQPF_sm.gif

 

GOES16-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-625x375.gif

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