I literally just did it again and the numbers changed a percent or two on a couple of schools. 538 is constantly updating their predictions...so who knows.

 

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Haha I have no idea why yours keeps saying Ohio State and mine keeps saying Oklahoma. That’s crazy. :idunno:

Looking at 538 right now if Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio St, and Wash State all won out, the % of liklihood they would make the playoffs is...

Alabama >99%

Clemson >99%

Notre Dame 64%

Oklahoma 55%

Ohio State 70%

Washington State 14%

 

If Michigan were to win out with the other schools they only have a 30% chance of making the playoffs and Oklahoma jumps to 72%.

 

2018 College Football Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

 

Are Clemson and Alabama both locks for the playoff's even is they lost in their conference championship games? As long as they didn't lose any other game?

Edited November 14, 20187 yr by sportsfan41

Are Clemson and Alabama both locks for the playoff's even is they lost in their conference championship games? As long as they didn't lose any other game?

I can’t simulate Clemson losing in their conference champ game, but I can with Bama by saying Georgia wins out. If Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ohio State win out 538 says Bama would have a 14% chance to make the playoff. If it’s Michigan it’s an 18% chance. I have no idea how it’s coming to that conclusion. As long as Bama beats The Citadel and Auburn they have a spot in the playoffs locked up. No committee in their right mind would put Ohio State/Michigan or Oklahoma/ West Virginia in over Alabama with 1 loss.

I can’t simulate Clemson losing in their conference champ game, but I can with Bama by saying Georgia wins out. If Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ohio State win out 538 says Bama would have a 14% chance to make the playoff. If it’s Michigan it’s an 18% chance. I have no idea how it’s coming to that conclusion. As long as Bama beats The Citadel and Auburn they have a spot in the playoffs locked up. No committee in their right mind would put Ohio State/Michigan or Oklahoma/ West Virginia in over Alabama with 1 loss.

 

Exactly. I think for Clemson it would depend on who they lost to and by how much.

I can’t simulate Clemson losing in their conference champ game, but I can with Bama by saying Georgia wins out. If Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ohio State win out 538 says Bama would have a 14% chance to make the playoff. If it’s Michigan it’s an 18% chance. I have no idea how it’s coming to that conclusion. As long as Bama beats The Citadel and Auburn they have a spot in the playoffs locked up. No committee in their right mind would put Ohio State/Michigan or Oklahoma/ West Virginia in over Alabama with 1 loss.

 

For the good of college football, a one loss Bama can't get in over a 1 loss BIG 10 Champ. Just can't happen. There's too much SEC fatigue and this whole November schedule thing. It's unfortunate but I don't think it can happen. Now a one loss West Virginia may not get in over a one loss Bama.

For the good of college football, a one loss Bama can't get in over a 1 loss BIG 10 Champ. Just can't happen. There's too much SEC fatigue and this whole November schedule thing. It's unfortunate but I don't think it can happen. Now a one loss West Virginia may not get in over a one loss Bama.

 

A one loss Bama team is getting in no matter what happens in the other conferences.

For the good of college football, a one loss Bama can't get in over a 1 loss BIG 10 Champ. Just can't happen. There's too much SEC fatigue and this whole November schedule thing. It's unfortunate but I don't think it can happen. Now a one loss West Virginia may not get in over a one loss Bama.

I don’t think the committee is taking into account what is good for college football. Maybe that’s just the romantic side of me saying that though. I don’t see any circumstance where Bama is not one of the 4 best teams unless they lose to Auburn and Georgia and even then I think Bama has a path to get in.

I don’t think the committee is taking into account what is good for college football. Maybe that’s just the romantic side of me saying that though. I don’t see any circumstance where Bama is not one of the 4 best teams unless they lose to Auburn and Georgia and even then I think Bama has a path to get in.

 

I think a 1 lost Bama doesn't get in if Clemson, and Notre Dame are undefeated and Michigan wins the Big 10. They won't put a one lost Bama over an undefeated Notre Dame, or Clemson. They won't put Bama over say Georgia if their one lost was to Georgia in the SEC Championship.

 

So it would then come down to Michigan. Which if Michigan only has that 1 lost, and that 1 lost coming to undefeated Notre Dame. Michigan would be one of the hottest teams in the country including a win over OSU then.

 

Now a one lost OSU team with Notre Dame and Clemson undefeated. Then I think a 1 lost Bama gets in over OSU.

A 1-loss Bama team gets in over every other 1-loss team every time.

For the good of college football, a one loss Bama can't get in over a 1 loss BIG 10 Champ. Just can't happen. There's too much SEC fatigue and this whole November schedule thing. It's unfortunate but I don't think it can happen. Now a one loss West Virginia may not get in over a one loss Bama.

 

A one loss Bama team is getting in no matter what happens in the other conferences.

I think a 1 lost Bama doesn't get in if Clemson, and Notre Dame are undefeated and Michigan wins the Big 10. They won't put a one lost Bama over an undefeated Notre Dame, or Clemson. They won't put Bama over say Georgia if their one lost was to Georgia in the SEC Championship.

 

So it would then come down to Michigan. Which if Michigan only has that 1 lost, and that 1 lost coming to undefeated Notre Dame. Michigan would be one of the hottest teams in the country including a win over OSU then.

 

Now a one lost OSU team with Notre Dame and Clemson undefeated. Then I think a 1 lost Bama gets in over OSU.

Bama gets in over Michigan. No doubt about it. I honestly think the committee would debate ND/ Michigan more than Bama/ Michigan.

Bama gets in over Michigan. No doubt about it. I honestly think the committee would debate ND/ Michigan more than Bama/ Michigan.

 

I don't think so. I think that scenario is the one way Michigan gets left out. They are not going to leave out an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson. Especially since Notre Dame would have a win over the Big 10 Champ, and Big 10 runner up on its resume. Shoot Notre Dame will now also have a win over the ACC runner up in Pitt. Notre Dame and Clemson are in as long as they are undefeated.

 

While Bama has been absolutely dominate. If they lose, their overall resume isn't great. Then when you compare to Michigan who then would also have a win at OSU on it's resume, and only lost being to playoff bound Notre Dame to start the year. I do think Bama would then be left out, but that is the only way.

I don't think so. I think that scenario is the one way Michigan gets left out. They are not going to leave out an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson. Especially since Notre Dame would have a win over the Big 10 Champ, and Big 10 runner up on its resume. Shoot Notre Dame will now also have a win over the ACC runner up in Pitt. Notre Dame and Clemson are in as long as they are undefeated.

 

While Bama has been absolutely dominate. If they lose, their overall resume isn't great. Then when you compare to Michigan who then would also have a win at OSU on it's resume, and only lost being to playoff bound Notre Dame to start the year. I do think Bama would then be left out, but that is the only way.

 

I don't necessarily disagree, but let's not act like wins over Pitt & Northwestern are something to write home about. They're two very average football teams that happen to play in the worst divisions of P5 football.

 

Alabama's only loss would be to playoff bound Georgia, and they'd have a road win over top 10 LSU, which would be more impressive than a Michigan OSU win. No way, no how does Bama get left out unless they suffer multiple losses.

I don't necessarily disagree, but let's not act like wins over Pitt & Northwestern are something to write home about. They're two very average football teams that happen to play in the worst divisions of P5 football.

 

Alabama's only loss would be to playoff bound Georgia, and they'd have a road win over top 10 LSU, which would be more impressive than a Michigan OSU win. No way, no how does Bama get left out unless they suffer multiple losses.

 

Well hopefully we get to find out. That would bring even more talk about possibly at least expanding to 6 or 8. To have a year like this where Bama is completely dominate, but somehow slip in the Conference Championship game to Georgia. That would lead to some great debate, and a deserving team out for sure.

I don't think so. I think that scenario is the one way Michigan gets left out. They are not going to leave out an undefeated Notre Dame or Clemson. Especially since Notre Dame would have a win over the Big 10 Champ, and Big 10 runner up on its resume. Shoot Notre Dame will now also have a win over the ACC runner up in Pitt. Notre Dame and Clemson are in as long as they are undefeated.

 

While Bama has been absolutely dominate. If they lose, their overall resume isn't great. Then when you compare to Michigan who then would also have a win at OSU on it's resume, and only lost being to playoff bound Notre Dame to start the year. I do think Bama would then be left out, but that is the only way.

Answer me this, who is a better team Alabama or Michigan?