April 2, 20188 yr After looking at the very latest modeling data I've decided to go ahead and issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for Tuesday 4/3/18. The alert is mainly for late Tuesday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat from these storms looks to be damaging winds, hail some of which could be large and tornadoes. This is the first time I'm doing this by using SARS-Sounding Analogs on tornadoes. The strength of the possible strongest tornadoes could be F2+. This area of concern for tornadoes appears to be west of a line from Bowling Green northeastward to Johnsville, Ky. People in the Land between the Lakes area should pay special attention to the weather. That seems to be the area with the strongest possibility of tornadoes rated F2 or greater with significant hail. As of now the best time for these storms are between 5-8 pm EDT 4-7 pm CDT. Here are some maps showing the possibility of these storms. They should the conditions to be favorable for the development of strong to severe storms. EHI Atmospheric Energy Supercell Development Significant Tornadoes I will update early tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the SPC raises the threat level for parts of Kentucky to a Moderate Risk Level by tomorrow morning.
April 3, 20188 yr Author The severe weather threat for later today has increased. Especially for those in Western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk Area to include most of Kentucky. I wouldn't be at all surprised that a Moderate Risk Area is issued for Western Kentucky later today. Thunderstorms with the risk of wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. Some of these tornadoes could be strong EF-2+. I want to post the tornado strength scale again with the Enhanced Fujita Scale. This is the one I should've used last night. It is basically the same thing. The timing looks to be afternoon into the overnight hours. The NAM 3K which is a high definition of the NAM shows the progression of the storms across Kentucky. This is from around 5 pm to 7 am EDT. Here are the other maps showing the conditions favorable for the development of severe storms. EHI Supercell Significant Tornadoes Everyone should be weather aware later today. Have more than one way to get severe weather information. I'll be watching this situation carefully. Updates throughout the day on our twitter page. Edited April 3, 20188 yr by nWo
April 3, 20188 yr Author Just a quick update. I just got finished taking a quick look at the latest modeling data for later today. It appears that the severe threat has increased since this morning. For just about all of Kentucky. Especially for WKY. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC upgrades the Enhanced Risk Area for WKY to Moderate.
April 3, 20188 yr Author As I expected the Storm Prediction Center has just raised the threat level for most of Kentucky to Moderate from Enhanced.
April 3, 20188 yr Author Tornado Watch coming for part of the area. http://bluegrasspreps.com/bgp-break-room/tornado-watch-364502.html
April 3, 20188 yr Author I want to caution everyone that the first line of storms is not the main one. It will come later this evening. Once this first line past don't let your guard down.
April 3, 20188 yr It finally feels like spring outside, even if it's only for a day! :banana: I was thinking the same. At least we have today.
April 3, 20188 yr Author It finally feels like spring outside, even if it's only for a day! :banana: I was thinking the same. At least we have today. I hope that the GFS and Canadian are wrong about this weekend. I'll post about that after we get through this situation. If they hold true enjoy this warm weather for today. :sssh:
April 3, 20188 yr nWo was this storm system basically a warm front and cold front bumping heads over the Ohio valley? As I was walking into the gym in Crescent Springs around 4pm you could see clouds moving to the north while storms were forming to the west and moving south. You could literally watch it forming.
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