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Severe Weather Alert Day for Tuesday 4/2/18


nWo

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After looking at the very latest modeling data I've decided to go ahead and issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for Tuesday 4/3/18.

 

The alert is mainly for late Tuesday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. The main threat from these storms looks to be damaging winds, hail some of which could be large and tornadoes. This is the first time I'm doing this by using SARS-Sounding Analogs on tornadoes. The strength of the possible strongest tornadoes could be F2+. This area of concern for tornadoes appears to be west of a line from Bowling Green northeastward to Johnsville, Ky. People in the Land between the Lakes area should pay special attention to the weather. That seems to be the area with the strongest possibility of tornadoes rated F2 or greater with significant hail.

 

tornado-fujita-scale.jpg

 

As of now the best time for these storms are between 5-8 pm EDT 4-7 pm CDT.

 

Here are some maps showing the possibility of these storms. They should the conditions to be favorable for the development of strong to severe storms.

 

EHI Atmospheric Energy

 

ehi.gif

 

Supercell Development

 

super.gif

 

Significant Tornadoes

 

tor.gif

 

I will update early tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the SPC raises the threat level for parts of Kentucky to a Moderate Risk Level by tomorrow morning.

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The severe weather threat for later today has increased. Especially for those in Western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk Area to include most of Kentucky. I wouldn't be at all surprised that a Moderate Risk Area is issued for Western Kentucky later today.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

Outlook-category-descriptions.png

 

Thunderstorms with the risk of wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. Some of these tornadoes could be strong EF-2+. I want to post the tornado strength scale again with the Enhanced Fujita Scale. This is the one I should've used last night. It is basically the same thing.

 

fujitascale.png

 

The timing looks to be afternoon into the overnight hours. The NAM 3K which is a high definition of the NAM shows the progression of the storms across Kentucky. This is from around 5 pm to 7 am EDT.

 

radar.gif

 

Here are the other maps showing the conditions favorable for the development of severe storms.

 

EHI

 

nam4km.ehi03.us_ov.2018040300-loop (1).gif

 

Supercell

 

nam4km.scp.us_ov.2018040300-loop (1).gif

 

Significant Tornadoes

 

nam4km.stp.us_ov.2018040300-loop (1).gif

 

Everyone should be weather aware later today. Have more than one way to get severe weather information. I'll be watching this situation carefully. Updates throughout the day on our twitter page.

Edited by nWo
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Just a quick update. I just got finished taking a quick look at the latest modeling data for later today. It appears that the severe threat has increased since this morning. For just about all of Kentucky. Especially for WKY. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC upgrades the Enhanced Risk Area for WKY to Moderate.

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It finally feels like spring outside, even if it's only for a day! :banana:

 

I was thinking the same. At least we have today.

 

I hope that the GFS and Canadian are wrong about this weekend. I'll post about that after we get through this situation. If they hold true enjoy this warm weather for today. :sssh:

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nWo was this storm system basically a warm front and cold front bumping heads over the Ohio valley? As I was walking into the gym in Crescent Springs around 4pm you could see clouds moving to the north while storms were forming to the west and moving south. You could literally watch it forming.

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