The Firm Five

Lexington Christian Academy was seemingly starting to slip a little in the eyes of some. The Eagles had not surrounded themselves with the toughest schedule of the Top 5 teams in Class 2A, and had a couple games where they seemingly allowed lesser competition to hang around before hammering the nail in the 2nd Half to pull away. Lexington Catholic was supposed to be the game that told us if LCA was going to keep pace with the front runners of the class. Lexington Christian Academy hushed the doubters in resounding fashion. The Eagles crushed the 3A Knights 56-36 and may have secured the title of "The Best of Lex" in the process.

 

The Top 5 teams (Christian Academy- Louisville, Danville, DeSales, Mayfield, and LCA) are now a combined 19-0. Here is how their impressive wins can be broken down:

 

vs. 1A- 3-0 (3-0 versus foes either ranked at the time or currently ranked)

vs. 3A- 6-0 (5-0 versus foes either ranked at the time or currently ranked)

vs. 4A- 3-0 (2-0 versus foes either ranked at the time or currently ranked)

vs. 5A- 1-0 (1-0 versus foes either ranked at the time or currently ranked)

vs. 6A- 6-0 (2-0 versus foes either ranked at the time or currently ranked)

 

That is correct folks 13-0 against foes who were either ranked at the time in their respective class, or are currently ranked.

 

So it begs the question: Who will flinch first? Here are each of the team's next four games.

 

#1 Christian Academy- Louisville

@ Newport Central Catholic

@ 6A Meade County

vs. DeSales

@ Shawnee

 

Analysis: CAL's next four games will not necessarily be an impossible feat, but it is also far from a walk in the park. Newport Central Catholic is a ranked foe but CAL should be able to outclass them. Meade County has been playing good ball as of late, but over the past few years the Louisville 2A powerhouses have had their number. Shawnee will be a no contest if they can get by DeSales. That is a mighty big "if" though. The two rivals will have perhaps the most anticipated Class 2A game to date when they meet.

 

Chance of Remaining Undefeated: 60%

 

 

#2 Danville

@ 3A Waggener

vs. 3A Garrard County

vs. 6A Tates Creek

@ Somerset

 

Analysis: The Ads should get their legs stretched against a pair of decent 3A teams, but don't expect either to really threaten Danville. Tates Creek is playing some of the best ball of any of the Lexington 6A Public Schools, with that said Tates Creek took a "L" to the same Frederick Douglass that Danville crushed in their season opener. Somerset is becoming an interesting team. The Jumpers' Defense is rounding into form and they will be tough at home, regardless Danville should be favored in each of their next four.

 

Chance of Remaining Undefeated: 85%

 

#3 DeSales

vs. 5A Fern Creek

@ 3A Lexington Catholic

vs. 6A North Hardin

@ Christian Academy- Louisville

 

Analysis: The Colts have without a doubt the toughest road over the next four games. All four teams are capable of beating DeSales if the Colts have an "off night". DeSales should enter as a favorite in each of their first three games, but their margin for error is significantly less than their other competitors. Even if DeSales does survive we still have the elephant in the room by way of a road game against the Defending Champs.

 

Chance of Remaining Undefeated: 40%

 

#4 Mayfield

vs. 5A Graves County

vs. 3A Corbin (neutral site)

vs. Murray

vs. Ballard Memorial

 

Analysis: Unlike the other teams on the list, Mayfield doesn't have a tough District game to navigate. The Cardinals should overwhelm both Murray and Ballard Memorial. Any chance for a Cardinal loss over the next four games will have to come from the two no-district foes. Graves County is showing a positive trend, but the Eagles historically have not been able to compete against the cross county rival. Graves will be competitive, but anything short of a Mayfield win would be a huge surprise. The Cardinals stiffest test will come from a 3A Corbin team on a neutral field at Austin Peay University. Corbin was looking like a tall hurdle, but after 1A Beechwood puts the Hounds in the dog house, this game now seemingly seems a toss-up at worst, and Mayfield as a slight favorite most likely.

 

Chance of Remaining Undefeated: 70%

 

#5 Lexington Christian Academy

vs. Walton-Verona

@ 1A Kentucky Country Day

@ Middlesboro

vs. Somerset

 

Analysis: If this were 2015 or 2016 this schedule would seem extremely favorable. Unfortunately for LCA in 2017 they will now get arguably the best Walton-Verona and Kentucky Country Day teams in school history, and Somerset seems to be trending upward in a hurry. Lexington Christian Academy will no doubt enter each of these games favored, but all but the Middlesboro game wreak of being a potential trap or misstep if the Eagles do not keep laser focus. The KCD game is especially one to watch out for. The Bearcats are in need of a statement win to prove they can go toe to toe with Beechwood and a home game against a highly touted Class 2A team is the perfect stage.

 

Chance of Remaining Undefeated: 70%

 

Around the Class

- Christian Academy- Louisville (4-0) got the test they wanted from 3A Elizabethtown. The Centurions trailed for the fist time all season before rallying for a hard fought 24-9 win over the veteran Panthers. Tyler Harris and Milton Wright were both exceptional and provided the Offensive balance to come from behind. Harris eclipsed the 100 yard mark on the ground while Wright did it by way of the air.

 

- Somerset (2-2) split their season series against the 2016 Class 1A State Finals delegates. After losing only 7-0 to #1 Beechwood, the Jumpers rallied from a 9-7 deficit entering the 4th Quarter on the road to knock off #2 Hazard 20-9. Ty Tevis was the star of the night for Somerset rushing for 105 yards, he also added a pair of TD's including the go ahead score in the 4th Quarter.

 

- Owen County (3-1) took a hard fought 12-6 win over 1A Fairview to move to 3-1 on the season. The Rebels Defense bent but never would break as they turned the Eagles over three times. Kirby Young had a nice night catching the football as he secured four balls for 75 yards and a crucial TD. Owen County will take this week off, but will return to action against Walton-Verona in what should most likely be the defacto District Championship game.

 

On Deck:

- A pair of showdowns between Top 10 ranked teams within Class 2A will highlight this week's slate. Christian Academy- Louisville (4-0) will travel to Newport to take on Newport Central Catholic (2-2). The Breds are reeling after a pair of tough losses to higher class competition, after starting the year with dominating performances on the ground they are now struggling to find their footing.

 

The biggest clash of 2A teams will take place in the shadow of Fayette Mall as LCA (4-0) welcomes Walton-Verona (3-1). Walton-Verona is hungry to make a statement that they are capable of competing with the best in Class 2A and this will be their best shot. If the Bearcats can pull off the upset a 9-1 finish is probable but it will be a tall order. Lexington Christian is riding high after crushing 3A Lexington Catholic and have a chip on their shoulder of their own.

 

- Todd County Central (3-0) kept their surprising undefeated season alive by surviving 4A Hopkins County Central 6-0. The Rebels will look to make it 4-0 against 1A Fulton City this week. If the Rebels can get to 4 wins it will be something of note in itself. The last time Todd County Central won four games in a SEASON was 2010 when they went 4-7. Since 2000, the Rebels have only won 4 games twice and during that time period have never won five or more. With a winnable game against Caverna on their schedule five wins is definitely a tangible goal, if they can somehow knock off either Hancock County, McLean County, or Butler County it is even possible that the Rebels can secure at worst a .500 season.

 

Worth a Closer Look:

- After dropping their season opener Metcalfe County has rallied to move to 3-1 and are entering this week fresh off a 18-12 win over 3A Adair County.

 

Metcalfe will challenge 3A Edmonson County next. The Wildcats enter at 3-1 as well after suffering their first defeat of the season last week.

Great article! I look forward to reading this every week.

Good stuff!

job well done!

Same here, really enjoy looking for this update every week....keep up the good work !

Great Job!!!

Excellent, and I think the percentages and the reasoning behind them are on point.

Caldwell County at Princeton could be a very tough road matchup for Mayfield if they survive their matchup with Corbin.

survey says....CAL

survey says....CAL

 

Cardinals44, ColtPride, DRKARK, keepinitreal were the four BGP posters who called this one right...

Did not see that one coming, in fact I had little respect for NCC being a serious contender but like these monuments I should have looked at history and not forgot the past. NCC now has a prominent spot at the head table

Was CAL without the service of QB Carr ?