Final

Slight upset.

 

Could be a 3 way tie for second.

 

F-s would figure to have the inside track with the win over Monroe and an opportunity to get a win vs Russellville in the last week

I'd be surprised if Franklin beats Russellville. But I've been surprised before. If they beat Russellville, it's over, they've got it. That's insurmountable.

I have a potential tiebreaker right now as Franklin-Simpson leading with 9, ACS having 7, and Warren Central having 3 (both WC and Franklin's totals assume a win over Warren East which would be needed for the scenario).

 

Warren Central's only hope of adding to that total is through Greenwood. Meade County will get blown out by Central Hardin and I doubt they beat Macon County (TN). East would end with 1 win for this scenario to even happen. So Greenwood and what would be 7 additional wins (assuming win over Grayson County) is their only additional hope. Warren Central will finish with either 3 or 10. There's a chance neither would be enough to get out of 4th (obviously if they don't beat Greenwood they've got no shot).

 

ACS has a useful win over Glasgow and should squeeze a bit more out of Barren County in addition to East. Glasgow will beat Metcalfe and likely lose to E-Town, and the Monroe County game is a swing game (my guess is Monroe gets it). Assume 5 is the floor there, 6 the ceiling, 5 likely. Barren County will lose to Bowling Green, almost certainly beat Grayson County, and then Edmonson County is a tossup. I'm giving that to Barren and assuming 4 wins, with 3 being the floor. East of course is stuck on 1. So ACS's total will likely be between 9-11, and my guess it'll settle in the middle at 10. They can add more through Bardstown, which should lose to Louisville Central and beat Thomas Nelson, giving a potential addition of 5. In all, ACS should be between 9-11 or up to 14-16. 10 or 15 I would consider the most likely scenarios.

 

Franklin-Simpson currently holds wins over Portland, Metcalfe County, and Monroe County, and would add Warren East in the scenario. If they were to beat Russellville, Warren East would be dropped. Metcalfe County has one win and will likely only add one more by beating Caverna, to finish with 2 points. Portland has three wins, and from looking at their schedule, has one I think they'll win comfortably, one they'll get crushed, and a toss-up. Consider 4 their floor, 5 their ceiling, with 4 likely. Monroe County has 4 wins. They'll handle Green County IMO, likely beat Glasgow, and Wayne County is a tossup with a lean towards Monroe. I consider 6 likely, and 7 a distinct possibility. East, of course, adds just one. Going by what is likely, Franklin-Simpson is probably going to have at least 13 points, and it's conceivable it could go as high as 15, and I would consider 11 the absolute floor. Russellville will have 8 wins by the time they play Franklin-Simpson. At this point, if Franklin-Simpson won that game then they get the #2 seed no matter what. If they don't, they could potentially be at the mercy of ACS and their result against Bardstown.

 

One thing seems almost certain - Central is probably staring at the #4. They'd need to beat Greenwood and have a few things break their way in the ACS results to be able to pull up to #3, and likely have no shot at #2 without some ludicrous amounts of help from the Franklin-Simpson results (like all of them losing out). Which just makes what happened last week all the more eerily similar to 14 years ago, when Franklin-Simpson had last beaten Warren Central. That game, Franklin trailed in the 4th Quarter by 11 - just like last Friday. That game, Franklin came back to win, and it ultimately knocked Warren Central all the way down to #4 in the district - which seems like it's going to happen again. Crazy stuff. Unless, you know, Warren Central pulled the craziest upset ever and beat South Warren, which would give them the #1 seed. Yeah, that's the ticket.

How does Franklin have the resolve to fight back being down to a pretty good WC club and not for ACScottsville. Just dont know how to cage this Wildcat team.

^ Well Franklin-Simpson has kept an odd pattern going with this, in that they still have alternated wins and losses all year. No two game win streaks, nor two game losing streaks. IMO that will carry through the regular season and into the playoffs. Beat East, lose to Russellville, beat whoever they play in the first round, and then we'll see which side of the bracket they end up on to determine the next.

 

As for how they did that against WC and not ACS, if I had that answer, I think I could make a good living on being able to divine that. IMO, neither result should have played out as it did, but here we are.

Mystery team. I said tonight they are the Auburn of 4A.

 

This was FS's Fall Break week. They came into the game lacking focus and it lasted all night. They have two weeks to think about this one before ending the season with East and Russellville. I have no clue. There is a catalyst missing and I do not know what it is.

DragonFire, thanks for the tiebreaker scenarios, I was going to look into that myself but you saved me the trouble. I can tell you exactly how FS was able to beat WC and not ACS tonight. It comes down largely to coaching malpractice. FS got nowhere last week against WC until they went to the shotgun and sped up the pace of play. They began to use their QB as the pass and run threat he truly is, and gave him and our skill players room to move as they had WC's defense spread out. That led to 3 straight TD drives. All of the TD's on those drives came out of the wing-t, but they moved the ball downfield quickly out of the gun and did not go back to the wing-t until they got to the red zone. On their last two drives last week, WC's defense was worn out and the running game was finally able to work. Tonight, the offense NEVER lined up in anything but the wing-t. Guess what folks, FS has the same three plays they run continually: sweep left, sweep right, run up the middle. ALL defenses know this so they put 9 men in the box. Then when FS tries to pass out of the wing-t, the QB has to roll out almost to the sideline and when he turns around to find a receiver, he is already under pressure because the defense was all in the box. FS did this ALL NIGHT LONG. Both times they took over possession with 2 minutes or so left in each half, did they run the shotgun as they did last week? Well, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Let's run our base 3 plays and kill the clock and any chance of winning the game. Then after the game the coach goes on the radio and blames the players for not having any emotion and said they've got to make plays when they are there to be made. Yes, the defense kept one ACS drive alive with a roughing the punter penalty, which ACS turned into a TD. Yes, FS had several holding penalties and they fumbled the ball once at the one yard line going in to score (which I think the runner had already crossed the plane) and they fumbled with 2 or 3 minutes left on a potential game winning drive. Yes, the boys didn't play their best game. But the same coach said on last week's postgame radio show that the South Warren game showed them that they were going to have to do something else to mix things up with their offense, they had just done that against WC and the coach then said that Allen County just won't know what we might line up in against them next week. Well, I was afraid I knew exactly what FS would do this week and I was right.

 

I am so frustrated by all this. The young men of FS are going out and playing hard. They are the ones who are doing all the running, all the lifting, all the practicing, all the hard work. I am just a washed up old 40 something who loves to watch my Wildcats every Friday night, and hate it the other 9 months of the year when I don't have my game to go to. This team proved last week, that with the right scheme, which they obviously had been practicing, they can beat a very good team, which Warren Central still is in my opinion. WHY did the coaches not try to run at least a few plays out of the shotgun when it worked so well the previous week? Let's look at the possible excuses: 1-It was raining. Uh, don't tell Allen County that because they ran out of the shotgun the majority of the night. By the way, I admire the job ACS's Coach Hood did in this game. ACS tried to run at FS the first couple of drives and got nowhere. Did they continue to do the same thing all night that had already failed? NO! They lined up in shotgun and began to pass, then they lined up in wing-t and passed some more, and most of their offense and all their TDs were due to the passing attack. They recognized their own weakness and got away from that and played to their strengths. Simple concept, huh? 2-FS doesn't want all their shotgun plays on tape so that Hopkinsville or South Warren can see them all before possible playoff games. Well that excuse was thrown out last week when they did it against WC. 3-Well, I really can't come up with a good number 3 possibility, maybe because in my frustration my brain is fried.

 

What was expected to be a really good season is turning out to be a major disappointment. It's not as if they have never ran the shotgun or practiced it. They have only given us FS fans a tantalizing taste of it for 3 drives against WC, and it was their best offensive showing of the year except for the Metcalfe County game, and it wouldn't have mattered what they ran in that game, they would have won handily. These games could have been so much more enjoyable for the fans, but more importantly for the players. You know, the young men that really matter in all this. Why did the team not have emotion tonight? Well, it was probably partly due to this game being played during fall break and the players were not in their usual routine this week. Could this not have been addressed when the schedule was made? Why are they playing this week? Most of the last several years FS has played on its fall break week, and it has usually been their worst performance of the year, and it has usually been against ACS. Who controls the scheduling? Not the players. What else could affect the players' emotion? Could it be that they were used to winning all their games in middle school and JV, and used to the coaches calling plays that played to their strengths, and therefore they were able to go out and have fun, winning with confidence? Could it be that the players know they are a better team than they are showing and it is not their fault, but rather the fault of the coaching staff who is pigeon-holing them into an offense that doesn't use their talents to their fullest extent? Could their QB be frustrated because for so many years growing up he WAS the offense, running and passing at will, with opponents usually unable to stop him, and now he is relegated to turning around and handing off the ball, and when he does get to throw, he has to roll out and when he turns around he has defenders all over him? Put him in the shotgun and he has time to look at his receivers and find them much quicker. Then, if there is no one open he can take off and run which he has done a few times this year with success.

 

The talent and potential is there for this team to make some noise in the playoffs. I don't know if they could beat Hopkinsville or South Warren, but I know they can't without their best effort, both from the players and especially from the coaching staff. I have far more confidence in the players giving their best effort than I do with the coaching staff giving their best effort schematically. I know the coaches care about the team, they also put in hard work not only preparing for games but also teaching the students during the week and they sacrifice the time with their families doing so. I sincerely appreciate the effort by players and coaches. I'm not about to accuse the coaches of not caring about the kids or not wanting to win, because I don't believe that is the case. I'm just wondering why FS is not using all the weapons in its arsenal, weapons they have obviously trained to use but are not using? What are you waiting for? Let these young men play up to their full potential, stop holding them back to fit the scheme you prefer to run, and let them do what they do best.

 

OK my rant is over and my headache is finally gone. I will say this also: Congratulations to Allen County-Scottsville, you won a game no one but you all expected to win. You did it with not only hard work but intelligence, running the plays that worked best for you. If you all do wind up with the 2 seed, here's hoping you all can finally beat Madisonville in the playoffs. FS may be looking at a LOOOONG trip to Calloway County in the first round.

Some of what you wrote agrees with facts some does not.

 

FS does not run the same three plays over and over. To a fan they may look the same but the alignment changes, the blocking schemes change, the action in the backfield changes. When you find a weakness in a defense you exploit it until they make a change.

 

As far a passing against WC. In the second quarter FS completed two passes for 50 yards and rushed 12 times for 54 yards. In the third FS completed 3 of 8 for 50 yards and rushed 8 times for 46.

 

The telling stat is the 4th quarter. 16 rushes for 159 and 3 TD's. Two passes were attempted both ended with pass interference calls.

 

This game turned when FS fumbled on the one inch line. There were center/QB exchange issues throughout the game. Losing Harvey so far has been significant. That issue needs to be resolved.

 

I agree with your assessment of the passing game. Not that we should line up in a spread formation (just hold up a sign "we are throwing it") but with pass blocking out of the wing T. We have to do better there. The QB is being forced to deep and is holding the ball too long. Impossible to pass and the possibility of a big sack loss is much greater.

 

HUGE for this team is mental preparation. They seem to struggle with that. Hopefully this coming Friday night off will give them a chance to "get their minds right".

 

Unlike DragonFire (he gets a bit grumpy about FS) I think we win the last two and host Madisonville the first week of playoffs, then travel to Hoptown (or maybe Warren Central will get a return to Shadetree that would not surprise me at all). ACS will beat Calloway and go to Richpond.

Unlike DragonFire (he gets a bit grumpy about FS) I think we win the last two and host Madisonville the first week of playoffs, then travel to Hoptown (or maybe Warren Central will get a return to Shadetree that would not surprise me at all). ACS will beat Calloway and go to Richpond.

 

Me, grumpy?

 

Nah, I just think Russellville takes it, but I would by no means put it beyond FS to get that game. In either case, I think they're gonna end up with the #2 seed and they should roll Madisonville.

If Central ends up as fourth seed I think we have a good shot at a D2 sweep.

As mentioned before, Central has to beat Greenwood to have any shot at climbing out of the 4 spot, and if Allen County-Scottsville beats Bardstown, there is literally nothing they can do tiebreaker-wise.

 

I absolutely think Central can beat Hoptown. The Tigers are rolling and have a strong resurgence this season, and it will be a tall task, but not an impossible one. Central needs to get healthy before then for certain. Their depth is so poor, and they just can't afford to be banged up. With games against South Warren and Greenwood to come, they may still have some issues there.

Check Hoptown's schedule. Not exactly murderer's row.

 

Better than Russellville who has seven wins over teams with a total of eleven wins.

I think district 2 sweeps if WC is#4 they have had Htown #