I'd always take the best college player available in the first round 100 out of 100 times. Nothing against high schoolers but college kids tend to get to the MLB quicker. The only way I take a high schooler is if they are a potentially organization changing talent.

No way do you take a pitcher in the first round unless a couple slide to you as has already been mentioned. I've seen at least one mock that has the Reds reaching for Aiken, I don't like that. He has all the talent in the world but the Reds honestly don't need pitching bad enough to reach for someone that could be damaged goods.

 

You can never have too much pitching.

Reds will need someone to slip to 11 or they might go local with Happ or take Buehler, a pitcher is very realistic.

Reds will need someone to slip to 11 or they might go local with Happ or take Buehler, a pitcher is very realistic.

 

The Arkansas kid, Benintendi, is a local kid. Played his high school ball in Cincinnati. They'd take him before Happ IMO.

The Arkansas kid' date=' Benintendi, is a local kid. Played his high school ball in Cincinnati. They'd take him before Happ IMO.[/quote']

 

He's part of the needs to slip.

He's part of the needs to slip.

 

Most have him projected in the 8-15 range....Him going 11 wouldn't be him slipping IMO.

Most have him projected in the 8-15 range....Him going 11 wouldn't be him slipping IMO.

 

I don't like the odds of him getting past 10, and I see the Phillies taking Stephenson right before the Reds.

The injury to Byrd has me taking a closer look at the various guys in the Reds system.

 

A couple things to note with Winker's slow start to this season:

 

1) He's striking out at a lower clip than he has his entire career. To me this suggests his poor average (.229) could be partially due to simple bad luck. His BABIP in his career has been: 2012 - .433, 2013 - .342, 2014 - .379, 2015 - .279.

 

2) Last season, shortly after his promotion to AA, Winker suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Think that injury is probably playing a role in the lack of "pop" he's shown this season. Usually say it takes about a year to fully come back.

 

3) Despite his poor average, he's still getting on base at a very nice clip, .341, which suggests he's not letting his poor start impact his approach which is promising for such a young guy.

The injury to Byrd has me taking a closer look at the various guys in the Reds system.

 

A couple things to note with Winker's slow start to this season:

 

1) He's striking out at a lower clip than he has his entire career. To me this suggests his poor average (.229) could be partially due to simple bad luck. His BABIP in his career has been: 2012 - .433, 2013 - .342, 2014 - .379, 2015 - .279.

 

2) Last season, shortly after his promotion to AA, Winker suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Think that injury is probably playing a role in the lack of "pop" he's shown this season. Usually say it takes about a year to fully come back.

 

3) Despite his poor average, he's still getting on base at a very nice clip, .341, which suggests he's not letting his poor start impact his approach which is promising for such a young guy.

 

I'm not concerned about Winker at all for all the reasons you listed above. His plate discipline is top notch and I think he's just ran into some bad luck on balls in play. His wrist could be playing a factor but he did take home the Arizona Fall League Batting Title and didn't look hampered at all.

Suarez added HR #8 last night. He's been showing some impressive pop.

 

Keyvius Sampson has had a nice season and put together his best start so far. 5.2 innings, 1 run, 1 walk and 7 K's. He's been a nice pickup and youth is still on his side.

The injury to Byrd has me taking a closer look at the various guys in the Reds system.

 

A couple things to note with Winker's slow start to this season:

 

1) He's striking out at a lower clip than he has his entire career. To me this suggests his poor average (.229) could be partially due to simple bad luck. His BABIP in his career has been: 2012 - .433, 2013 - .342, 2014 - .379, 2015 - .279.

 

2) Last season, shortly after his promotion to AA, Winker suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Think that injury is probably playing a role in the lack of "pop" he's shown this season. Usually say it takes about a year to fully come back.

 

3) Despite his poor average, he's still getting on base at a very nice clip, .341, which suggests he's not letting his poor start impact his approach which is promising for such a young guy.

 

You're more of a sabremetrics guy than I am, but aren't those BABIP's in '12-'14 significantly higher than the average? Seems like .433 BABIP is extremely high. .342 & .379 seem a little high, but more reasonable. I thought the "average" would be around .300 - .320. Am I wrong about that?

You're more of a sabremetrics guy than I am, but aren't those BABIP's in '12-'14 significantly higher than the average? Seems like .433 BABIP is extremely high. .342 & .379 seem a little high, but more reasonable. I thought the "average" would be around .300 - .320. Am I wrong about that?

 

You're correct. Although when a guy does it for 3 straight seasons, it would stand to reason that those are more the "norm" for that particular guy.

 

Jay Bruce is a career .250 hitter. His career BABIP is .345.

Joey Votto is a career .309 hitter. His career BABIP is .396.

Todd Frazier is a career .260 hitter. His career BABIP is .339.

 

Point being, a lot of your everyday regulars have a BABIP of higher than the ML average.

Law says he has no idea who the Reds will take, but it looks like they will grab a bat. His latest mock says Trenton Clark, an OF, out of Texas.

Law says he has no idea who the Reds will take, but it looks like they will grab a bat. His latest mock says Trenton Clark, an OF, out of Texas.

 

The #12 prospect according to MLB.com.

 

Here's their scouting report:

 

Clark reinforced his reputation as one of the best prep hitters available with his performance at the 18-and-under Pan American Championship in Mexico in September. He led Team USA to a gold medal by topping the team in nearly every offensive category, hitting .565 with three homers, 20 RBIs and five steals in eight games.

 

Clark has an unusual left-handed swing with a golf-style grip, but he makes repeated hard contact with his short stroke and above-average bat speed. Factor in his considerable strength and he should have at least average power. He also adds value on the bases with his solid speed and keen instincts.

 

While he's not a true burner, Clark has a chance to stay in center field as a pro. Left field would be his likely fallback position and the Texas Tech commit should have enough bat to profile there if needed.

The #12 prospect according to MLB.com.

 

Here's their scouting report:

 

Clark reinforced his reputation as one of the best prep hitters available with his performance at the 18-and-under Pan American Championship in Mexico in September. He led Team USA to a gold medal by topping the team in nearly every offensive category, hitting .565 with three homers, 20 RBIs and five steals in eight games.

 

Clark has an unusual left-handed swing with a golf-style grip, but he makes repeated hard contact with his short stroke and above-average bat speed. Factor in his considerable strength and he should have at least average power. He also adds value on the bases with his solid speed and keen instincts.

 

While he's not a true burner, Clark has a chance to stay in center field as a pro. Left field would be his likely fallback position and the Texas Tech commit should have enough bat to profile there if needed.

 

Latest Law Mock now has them with Garrett Whitley (OF), high school kid from NY. He said they are definitely leaning hitting over pitching. Would love Kyle Tucker (projected 5) or Andrew Benintendi (projected 7) if they fall.

 

I don't know the Reds system as well, but I saw Ian Happ, 2B (UC) is sitting right below them at 15 to the Brewers. I thought he would be interesting. Seems like a guy who could make an impact sooner than later. With 5 first round picks in Daytona, maybe try a college kid.