We often see managers during the year tinkering with their rotations and days off to match their Ace against an opponents Ace in an up coming series. In College ball you almost always see Ace vs Ace. But is that the best strategy?

 

Team A

#1 Starter Rated a 10

#2 is a 7

#3 is a 6

#4 is a 4

 

Team B

#1 Starter is a 9

#2 is a 7

#3 is a 5

#4 is a 3

 

In the customary #1 vs #1 #2 vs #2 and so on scenario Team A is favored to win 3 games with one a push

 

But if Team B goes #4 vs #1 then #1 vs #2 then #2 vs #3 and #3 vs #4 suddenly Team B is favored in 3 out of 4 games

 

Why do more teams not start their 4th or 5th starter against the opposing teams Ace and give themselves favorable match-ups the rest of the way?

I have always wondered that, also. I guess conceivably your #1 & 2 can get more starts, that's what my initial thought is.

Just going to toss this out there, but my guess is, that sometimes it's the mental aspect of it. I mean, if you're number 1 guy goes out against the opposition's number 1, they're going to be super-focused, knowing that even giving up just one or two runs, you're likely to be in trouble.

 

But, put that same guy in a matchup against the opposition's number 4 or 5 guy, and maybe he mentally relaxes. You go out and score 4 runs in the first couple innings, and he really lets go, and the next thing you know you're in a 4-3 game in the third inning. I don't think it's the case with everyone, but for some guys, I could see it.

I think that MLB teams do not "tinker" enough and every Manager is so afraid to skip a starter because it might mess some starters up. To me the Manager should consider all kinds of factors instead of just throwing the same rotation out there game after game. In April, when there are a lot of off days and maybe some rainouts, I would throw Cueto every 5th day no matter what. If that mean skipping the starts for other pitchers too bad. Cueto would go Opening Day and then have T, W, R, F off and then pitch Saturday no matter what.

If we're talking about a playoff scenario you definitely do. Your ace should want that challenge.

 

You can't really do that in the regular season other than opening week.

If we're talking about a playoff scenario you definitely do. Your ace should want that challenge.

 

You can't really do that in the regular season other than opening week.

 

There are off days during the season and rainouts. For me my #1 (assuming he is healthy) gets the ball every 5th day unless the 5th day is an off day. Likewise my 2, 3 and 4 starter. #5 would get skipped a lot. Now if it was a rotation like the Reds had last year where Leake was a solid #5 then maybe I do not skip him. But this year ........

Have wondered this myself too. I'm sure that all the league's teams look at things from a win-maximization approach, but do wonder how it actually works out.

 

I think that in a seven game series, you are usually playing a one-off series to go 7, so there are different rules than you'll see in the regular season. Pitching your best pitchers early means that they are the first of the staff to get rest and, if needed, come in and throw some more later in the series. That clock starts when their first appearance is over, and then they begin to recover. It doesn't start ticking for your ace if he until the end of Game 4 if you go against what everyone else is thinking, and that's a long time compared.

If we're talking about a playoff scenario you definitely do. Your ace should want that challenge.

 

You can't really do that in the regular season other than opening week.

 

Playoffs is def a different animal.

 

I just see rotations bumped a game here or there through out the season in many cases to match up 1 vs 1...just not sure if that's the best idea.

Something else to consider: for teams like maybe your Houston Astros or someone like that, you aren't going to go to the playoffs and are up for a historically bad season, so if you have an ace that is a fairly solid draw at the box office, I could see management wanting them to pitch at home if it's going to draw a thousand or so extra fans that they wouldn't get from a road start. Again, this is just for teams that are really bad and are struggling to get people in the gates. Could see a team like the Marlins of a few years ago, who were undeniably all about the cash, doing that and it wouldn't surprise me.

 

I think there is certainly something to be said about throwing off and all that, and some games (i.e., divisional games are more important than others), so I don't think it'd be wise to completely flip your rotations with all else held constant, but I do think there are some wins to steal and other benefits to be had by throwing off.

We often see managers during the year tinkering with their rotations and days off to match their Ace against an opponents Ace in an up coming series. In College ball you almost always see Ace vs Ace. But is that the best strategy?

 

Team A

#1 Starter Rated a 10

#2 is a 7

#3 is a 6

#4 is a 4

 

Team B

#1 Starter is a 9

#2 is a 7

#3 is a 5

#4 is a 3

 

In the customary #1 vs #1 #2 vs #2 and so on scenario Team A is favored to win 3 games with one a push

 

But if Team B goes #4 vs #1 then #1 vs #2 then #2 vs #3 and #3 vs #4 suddenly Team B is favored in 3 out of 4 games

 

Why do more teams not start their 4th or 5th starter against the opposing teams Ace and give themselves favorable match-ups the rest of the way?

 

 

 

I think the problem is when you go through the rotation several times the matchups might not be as good as in the first series.

 

When you move to the next series you've got your #3 vs the other team's #4 in the first game but what if they've had an off day and you haven't? Then you've got your #5 vs. their #1 and you're #4 vs their #2 . You'd only have a small advantage in one game and be at a serious disadvantage in the other 2 games. With the staggered off days and such a long season I think most teams would rather run their #1 and #2 guys out there as often as possible.

I think the problem is when you go through the rotation several times the matchups might not be as good as in the first series.

 

When you move to the next series you've got your #3 vs the other team's #4 in the first game but what if they've had an off day and you haven't? Then you've got your #5 vs. their #1 and you're #4 vs their #2 . You'd only have a small advantage in one game and be at a serious disadvantage in the other 2 games. With the staggered off days and such a long season I think most teams would rather run their #1 and #2 guys out there as often as possible.

 

I'm with this line of thinking. Like you said, you'll skip 4 or 5 guys as the off days necessitate and reshuffle if your top guys have enough rest to get them more starts. If it happens to fall that you get a 1v1 matchup, great.