June 19, 201412 yr I'm the biggest stat guy on here, and I have no clue why you chose to make such a big deal out of him making one dumb decision. He made one mistake and you crucified him for it, which is ridiculous IMO. I did not crucify him for it. Almost everyone though he shouldn't have gone then with no outs. The real argument was if 75% is elite. I think he should go almost all of the time. I don't think he should go when he's on 2nd with no outs. Explain how that is crucifying him.
June 19, 201412 yr He can steal 3B whenever he wants. If you go by the book you lose the element of surprise. If a team knows you aren't going with 0 outs they are less likely to be worried and mix up their looks or groove a fastball. You take it when you can take it with his speed. Will he be thrown out some, sure. But his speed will score you more runs than cost you. Of course, particular situations are different, like with a hot Votto, Phillips, Meso...etc up but force them to keep an eye on him every pitch and the hitters will get better pitches.
June 19, 201412 yr ^Claiming he shouldn't have the green light because of one mistake is beyond ridiculous. You can try to spin it into some % equals elite debate all you want, but that was the crux of the argument.
June 19, 201412 yr Wow, you really think that's it? He made one mistake. You wanted him to have the brakes put on. Get a grip. You are the single best person on this site at adding words to peoples mouth. I never ever said he needed the brakes put on. I said he shouldn't have the green light going to 3rd with no outs. Pretty simple argument that you actually probably would agree with but you love arguing with me b/c I look at numbers.
June 19, 201412 yr He can steal 3B whenever he wants. If you go by the book you lose the element of surprise. If a team knows you aren't going with 0 outs they are less likely to be worried and mix up their looks or groove a fastball. You take it when you can take it with his speed. Will he be thrown out some, sure. But his speed will score you more runs than cost you. Of course, particular situations are different, like with a hot Votto, Phillips, Meso...etc up but force them to keep an eye on him every pitch and the hitters will get better pitches. Shortsighted Crash, we're just too short-sighted to get it.
June 19, 201412 yr You are the single best person on this site at adding words to peoples mouth. I never ever said he needed the brakes put on. I said he shouldn't have the green light going to 3rd with no outs. Pretty simple argument that you actually probably would agree with but you love arguing with me b/c I look at numbers. He absolutely should. To say otherwise is ridiculous.
June 19, 201412 yr ...and to add to that argument, for a team that has long lived on the longball for run production, it's nice to add that little quirk and it makes the other team considerably more vulnerable defensively.
June 19, 201412 yr I'm done with this. If you guys think stealing 3rd with 1 out compared to 0 outs is the same thing you can't be serious.
June 19, 201412 yr Are we officially done worrying about not having a lead-off batter? I feel like I am.
June 19, 201412 yr You are the single best person on this site at adding words to peoples mouth. I never ever said he needed the brakes put on. I said he shouldn't have the green light going to 3rd with no outs. Pretty simple argument that you actually probably would agree with but you love arguing with me b/c I look at numbers. You have a poor memory. Do we have to revisit the posts? Come on, let's move on. You were wrong in everyone's opinion except yours.
June 19, 201412 yr I'm done with this. If you guys think stealing 3rd with 1 out compared to 0 outs is the same thing you can't be serious. He has, and should have, the green light in any situation. Just because you're giving him free reign doesn't mean he's going every time.
June 19, 201412 yr Shortsighted Crash, we're just too short-sighted to get it. It's a perfect scenario to explain my feeling on sabermetrics. I think some of the stats are important, really important. However, the things that cannot be gathered statistically is why I choose to rely on experience in addition to the statistics. There's no stat to show a batter may get more pitches left up in the zone due to focus on Hamilton than if he wasn't on base or as much of a base stealing threat. Those are results not measured by statistics. Similar adjustments made are defensive alignment, catching mechanics, pitching mechanics, pitch sequence and approaches to particular hitters.
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