April 10, 201412 yr If your best hitter is #2 and your fastest (most likely) guy is #1, the 2 hole guy OBP will be high. Why give the 2 hole guy good pitches to hit when you have an open base and can put the DP into affect? But what do I know? Apparently, my Fundamental Theorem's of Doubleday book is outdated. The problem with the math is that it can't account for these changes in the equation. So you are saying it would be a bad thing to start the game off 1st and 2nd no outs? Or are you saying at any point it would be a bad thing for Hamilton to get on, steal 2nd and then have the other team give the Reds a free base runner even though that hitter historically only has about a 42% chance to get on? Math accounts for all your hypothetical changes. It doesn't account for guessing and opinions.
April 10, 201412 yr Author Right, but he wouldn't bash his boy Dat Dude for that. He would rather throw a jab at Votto the vastly superior hitter. You really should read the thread first. I totally bashed BP for it. Keep playing, this is fun.
April 10, 201412 yr Author I may be wrong, that is a matter of opinion. Math is on my side though. I'll side with real data and math every time and let old school guys rely on what they were taught by even older school guys. I'm not saying my opinion will always be right. I am saying when I see concrete data I'll side with that and be right more than wrong. You read an article by a nerd who never played that the numbers supported it. If it was reality, the guys that get paid would do it. There's the rub. But keep on truckin'.
April 10, 201412 yr So you are saying it would be a bad thing to start the game off 1st and 2nd no outs? Or are you saying at any point it would be a bad thing for Hamilton to get on, steal 2nd and then have the other team give the Reds a free base runner even though that hitter historically only has about a 42% chance to get on? You're guaranteed that Hamilton will leadoff an inning one time per game. It's much more likely that he reaches 1B with 1 or 2 outs than 0 outs. If he steals second with 1 or 2 outs, and good God he should every time, that puts the DP into play if the other team gets to pitch around or walk your "best hitter". I would rather have my best hitter come up with 2 outs and Hamilton on 2nd (and potentially the 2 hole hitter) than 1 out and getting pitched around or walked. You just took your best hitter out of the run producing slot. Who's your 3 hole guy then? Your old 2 hole guy? Your 4 hole guy who is likely prone to striking out? Your pitcher so he can bunt those two runners over the 1st inning of every game? As you have stated many times, no one does this because they are either old school or have been taught by old school guys. If no one has done it, how can math tell you how the pitcher will react? The answer, it can't.
April 10, 201412 yr You read an article by a nerd who never played that the numbers supported it. If it was reality, the guys that get paid would do it. There's the rub. But keep on truckin'. Teams that have applied the metrics of these "nerds" have had quite a bit of success.
April 10, 201412 yr You read an article by a nerd who never played that the numbers supported it. If it was reality, the guys that get paid would do it. There's the rub. But keep on truckin'. You do realize that nerds that never played the game are getting more and more jobs and they're actually producing results with their info right?
April 10, 201412 yr Teams that have applied the metrics of these "nerds" have had quite a bit of success. Easy, you're going to make people mad that are actually super smart but don't think smarts and baseball work.
April 10, 201412 yr You're guaranteed that Hamilton will leadoff an inning one time per game. It's much more likely that he reaches 1B with 1 or 2 outs than 0 outs. If he steals second with 1 or 2 outs, and good God he should every time, that puts the DP into play if the other team gets to pitch around or walk your "best hitter". I would rather have my best hitter come up with 2 outs and Hamilton on 2nd (and potentially the 2 hole hitter) than 1 out and getting pitched around or walked. You just took your best hitter out of the run producing slot. Who's your 3 hole guy then? Your old 2 hole guy? Your 4 hole guy who is likely prone to striking out? Your pitcher so he can bunt those two runners over the 1st inning of every game? As you have stated many times, no one does this because they are either old school or have been taught by old school guys. If no one has done it, how can math tell you how the pitcher will react? The answer, it can't. Give me Hamilton and Votto on 1st and 2nd every single time no matter how many outs there are rather than Votto up with Hamilton on 2nd and 1 more out and I guarantee you I score more runs over a season. That's the math. Not that hard.
April 10, 201412 yr Author Teams that have applied the metrics of these "nerds" have had quite a bit of success. Some of them sure. Best hitter in the 2 hole, not.
April 10, 201412 yr You really should read the thread first. I totally bashed BP for it. Keep playing, this is fun. By the way my bad for missing that. I didn't see it.
April 10, 201412 yr Some of them sure. Best hitter in the 2 hole, not. But when it happens and that is used more and more by the smarter teams then what will your argument be? It will happen eventually.
April 10, 201412 yr Author Give me Hamilton and Votto on 1st and 2nd every single time no matter how many outs there are rather than Votto up with Hamilton on 2nd and 1 more out and I guarantee you I score more runs over a season. That's the math. Not that hard. Got nothing to do with math. it's about personnel. Votto can't drive in runs. Silly to have him in the 3 hole.
April 10, 201412 yr Author But when it happens and that is used more and more by the smarter teams then what will your argument be? It will happen eventually. So, your prediction is that Cabrerra and that ilk will all be in the 2 hole soon when all of these old school managers see the light? Tell you what, I'll change my avatar to "SSC is a genius" when the majority of MLB comes around to your way of thinking. Until then, I'll still say you're wrong.
April 10, 201412 yr Some of them sure. Best hitter in the 2 hole, not. Joe Mauer Mike Trout Dustin Pedroia A couple others that are arguably the best players on their team hit 2 as well...It's not common place yet, but it's starting to happen.
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