........

 

I don't even like UK and frequently root against them based on opponent, but I am shocked at the wild over-reactions in this thread and the UK / LSU thread based on one egg laid in January on the road.

 

UK has proven they can beat good teams and they've proven they can lose to average teams...not the end of the world. They are well-coached and can be very good offensively. If I'm a UK fan I'm really concerned about consistent defensive effort and the inability to turn people over. You let people have consistent possessions, with lapses in defense, and you're going to give up points.

 

Fans get so caught up in "do they want it enough", "no leadership in the locker room," and other similar bouts of cliché and platitudes. Bottom line, UK has a lot of talent, is well coached, can score the ball (although inconsistent from three), and is a great (not good, great) offensive rebounding team. They get their misses at a high rate, a great thing. When you have guards that lack great quickness and burst, and you can't turn people over, you have to work harder and longer on defense. That has been their issue.

 

End of the day, they'll lose a few more before March, but I haven't changed my thinking one bit that with certain match-ups they can win 4 straight in March.

Wisconsin & Ohio St. lose again.

Zona & Cuse survive

 

One thing I liked about Syracuse last night they don't seem to get rattled.

Wisconsin & Ohio St. lose again.

Zona & Cuse survive

 

One thing I liked about Syracuse last night they don't seem to get rattled.

 

Ohio State shouldn't be on anyone's Top 40 teams that could make the Final Four. As good as they are on defense turning people over, if you can hang on to the ball you can score against them. Offensively they are putrid and they routinely get smacked on the glass. Very flawed bunch in Columbus.

........

 

I don't even like UK and frequently root against them based on opponent, but I am shocked at the wild over-reactions in this thread and the UK / LSU thread based on one egg laid in January on the road.

 

UK has proven they can beat good teams and they've proven they can lose to average teams...not the end of the world. They are well-coached and can be very good offensively. If I'm a UK fan I'm really concerned about consistent defensive effort and the inability to turn people over. You let people have consistent possessions, with lapses in defense, and you're going to give up points.

 

Fans get so caught up in "do they want it enough", "no leadership in the locker room," and other similar bouts of cliché and platitudes. Bottom line, UK has a lot of talent, is well coached, can score the ball (although inconsistent from three), and is a great (not good, great) offensive rebounding team. They get their misses at a high rate, a great thing. When you have guards that lack great quickness and burst, and you can't turn people over, you have to work harder and longer on defense. That has been their issue.

 

End of the day, they'll lose a few more before March, but I haven't changed my thinking one bit that with certain match-ups they can win 4 straight in March.

 

Well said, I agree with everything...well.... except being a UK fan...:lol2: I posted earlier in another thread bout the lack of defense. Play good defense, make some stops and the offense will feed off of it. WCS seems to play better once he has gotten a block or two.

Gimme a week and I will give you an answer on Duke. They seem like they are turning the corner but they play at Pitt and at Syracuse this week. Big sign for us on the Dukies.

 

Yeah Ill take the Dukies in the top 10. They are getting there.

I have a feeling this Duke team can certainly make a run.....most athletic team they've had in a long time.

I have a feeling this Duke team can certainly make a run.....most athletic team they've had in a long time.

 

If Amile Jefferson can play like he did tonight, I like our chances against almost anyone on a neutral floor.

I feel confident Duke is a top 8 team for now.

I'd put Duke on this list and move Florida up a little from where I originally had them. Syracuse has won, but they seem to be playing lots of close games, which might be a concern.

My Updated List (2/16):

1. Florida

A really good team that doesn't have a lot of obvious weaknesses. They will only get better as Chris Walker improves. Really high in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense (13) and defense (5) metrics, which is the sign of a really good team.

 

2. Wichita State:

I think they are good enough to win it all. Last year's run will only help them this year, as they know what it takes. Also really high in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense (25) and defense (8) metrics.

 

3. Kansas:

Probably the most top tier talent on one team. Imbiid and Wiggins are studs. Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden are really good. Tharpe is having a solid year. Have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy; they are 5th in his adjusted offense and 25th in his adjusted defense, which is really good considering their schedule. They are also a top 31 team in PPG (28), RPG (31), APG (22), and FG% (5), which is yet another sign of how well rounded they are.

 

4. Syracuse:

I'm still not sold, but they're here by default... they've been lucky to win some close games so far, but live on the edge. I just don't like a team that relies on a 2-3 zone so heavily.

 

5. San Diego State:

Saw them play a few times and they terrorize people defensively. Good rebounding team as well. They have a star in Winston Shepard, but I don't know if he and Xavier Thames alone are going to be enough offensively.

 

6. Duke:

I really liked the pieces they had when I watched them today. They're kind of growing on me as a contender. I really like Rodney Hood's game, and I was badly wrong in thinking Parker was overrated (he's probably been the only "top" freshman to perform up to expectations). #1 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense metric.

 

7. Arizona:

Losing Ashley really hurt them, maybe even more than people realize-- if you don't believe me, look at their results since. They're talented and have a nice mix of skills, so they can do little bit of everything and beat people in different ways. Watching the end of regulation and the OT against Arizona State was brutal though. They did not execute well at all.

 

8. Michigan State:

I just worry about their health. If they're fully healthy, they could win it all. Injuries to some key players, especially players who've had a history of injuries like Gary Harris, is really concerning though.

 

9. Iowa State:

They don't get a lot of publicity, but really good, lead the nation in assisted baskets and are 4th in scoring.

 

10. Villanova:

Only 2 losses all year, but the fact that the losses were to some of their better competition is kind of concerning because they haven't beaten a team who was ranked at the time since November. They've only played 1 since, but don't really have a marquee win in that time frame either, so maybe their #6 ranking is a little inflated. They do assist on a lot of baskets (10th in the nation) and appear to have a deep team based on minutes played per game.

 

 

 

Dark Horse Mid-Majors To Look Out For:

St. Louis:

A good argument could be made for including them in the Top 10 teams. They have only lost two games, to Wisconsin and VCU, and those were early. #2 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defense metric.

 

Creighton:

Can really score in bunches. I don't know if they can defend elite teams, but they'll probably have a high seed and might not need to play many games above their head to get to the Final Four.

 

VCU:

Really high in Ken Pomeroy's metrics and have proven people wrong many times before. They have a tendency to peak at the right time.

 

 

 

Power Conference Teams Who Are Possibly Underrated:

Texas:

Got to see them play Kansas and they actually have some nice talent, but it doesn't look like the individual talent/skill sets necessarily complement the rest of the talent/skill sets. Guards are small but can be dynamic, then they have a really slow, plodding big guy who is immovable and will score when he gets the ball deep in Cameron Ridley. They had a really impressive 4 game streak where they beat #8 Iowa State, #22 Kansas State, #24 Baylor, and #6 Kansas is straight games from 1/18 to 2/1.

 

Oklahoma:

Big 12 is strong and they have some losses, but also look really long and athletic. They're balanced, with 10 players averaging double figures.

 

 

 

Still Have Time:

 

Louisville:

Look good on paper and in some metrics, but it seems like something is missing that you can't really put your finger on.

 

Ohio State:

Really like Aaron Craft, but don't know about the team as a whole when it comes to advancing deep.

 

Cincinnati:

Concerning losses keep them off the list for now.

 

Michigan:

Maybe they come together and get better once they are used to playing without McGary, but like Cincinnati, they seem to have some head-scratchers when it comes to losses.

 

Kentucky:

Homer pick here. Probably a year away. Lots of individual talent that played a great half against Florida and beat Louisville, but has also lost ugly games to Arkansas and LSU. Pretty low in the adjusted defensive metric (40+ range), which isn't good considering the schedule.

Edited February 16, 201412 yr by JokersWild24

UC has "concerning loses"? All 3 of them??? :lol2:

Kentucky is out of time. Are they capable of winning a game against a top flight team? Sure. If everything clicks they can win some individual games. But they'll see more than one in the tournament, and there may not be any game that they can take for granted because they'll have a poorer seed. Their game is simply not consistent enough to beat veteran teams that can match them for talent.

UC has "concerning loses"? All 3 of them??? :lol2:

 

SMU is not a very good team. I think they'll be good in time, but it's a lot of smoke and mirrors until Larry Brown gets talent like Mudiay (and possibly Myles Turner). Xavier hasn't set the world on fire. New Mexico is a solid team with a history of being overrated then flopping in the tournament, but I know that The Pit is a tough place to win.

 

They've beaten Louisville (Kentucky did that), Memphis (no quality wins to speak of), and UConn.

 

Cincinnati is good, and I recognize that, but at the same time, I'm a stat head and there's not really a metric that they jump out at me with.

 

They're in the 230+ range in PPG and FG%. 130+ range in RPG and 160+ in APG.

 

Ken Pomeroy's ratings have them 24th overall. Yes, their adjusted D in his rankings is 6th in the nation, but that doesn't do enough to balance out a 100+ range adjusted O, strength of schedule, opponent adjust D, or opponent adjusted O. They're also 20th in Pom's 'luck' category, which is another sign that they might not be as good as their record would indicate.

 

At the end of the day, I know they can D-up, but wonder what else they'll be able to do, especially if someone runs out to a lead on them and they have to get out of their comfort zone.

 

I'm not trying to bash Cincinnati, but those are the rankings I used to verify my thoughts on teams, and that's how they came out in them. Those 3 losses, combined with the metrics and things like a 1 point win over a sub .500 Houston team and two narrow wins over a sub .500 USF team, make me hesitate to put them in the top 10 teams I'd give a chance to reach the Final Four.

.....

 

Creighton is mid-major? Is Villanova?

.....

 

Creighton is mid-major? Is Villanova?

 

Creighton just joined a conference and recruited the bulk of their team as a mid-major school. I know what you're saying, but I think they're enough of a "mid-major" to fit. I don't consider Villanova to be such because they've just left the Big East and recruited the majority of their kids as a Big East school.