Cano has been over .900 more than once.

Longoria? No.

Yadier, catcher is different, so much more than offense and he is special.

Allen Craig? No, and neither are the Cards.

Beltre, has been over .900 several times.

Beltran? He has been over .900 a ton of times.

 

Shin Shoo Choo isn't those guys. It isn't my loot, if he can get $15 million, more power to him. If I'm wrong and he gets that I'll show up and admit I know nothing about baseball finances. He won't get it....

 

 

I may be way off on this but I believe I saw that the going rate on the market for a 1 WAR player is about $7M a year. Choo is far more valuable than that. Brian Kenny broke him down and Choo is far better than most give him credit for. Also he has improved on his own numbers in swinging at less pitches out of the strike zone. That probably won't go away with age.

 

Video: The Market Values of Choo and Ellsbury | MLB.com

I think OPS is a great indicator of offensive skill and I wouldn't give anyone who can't get to .900 $15 million. If his 2009, 2010, and 2013 were what I was going to get for next 4 years, you could probably talk me into this. However, 2011 was a clunker and 2012 was about midpoint between 2011 and 2013, so those scare me. Then add in that we are talking years 32-35, and I get VERY cautious.

 

Forgetting whether or not I'd give him that, because I'm not sitting on $15 million, I don't think he'll end up with that from anyone.

 

Side-note: while I also love OPS, to lead off with "I don't care about power, speed, or defense" appears to be going over-board a little, doesn't it? I don't want to jump into your ongoing UKMF vs. Spindoc argument, I'm truly somewhere in the middle, but to "not care" about key pieces of his game and focus only on his ability to get on base and OPS seems like you're taking things to extremes.

 

You can add Choo won't get $15 million to my earlier prediction that Arroyo wouldn't get $10 million per (and that the Reds would never offer him a one-year tender for fear he'd take it).

 

Thanks for the "count on it" regarding Hanigan, I was looking for someone to give me some inside info with the Reds, I appreciate that. I'm sure finding a dance partner for a $4 million non-everyday catcher won't be a challenge.

 

I will gladly take the $15M a year bet unless his contract is 7 years or longer...

 

I don't think Reds fans realize how good Choo actually was:

 

What is he really worth?: Shin-Soo Choo | The Strike Zone - SI.com

I will gladly take the $15M a year bet unless his contract is 7 years or longer...

 

I don't think Reds fans realize how good Choo actually was:

 

What is he really worth?: Shin-Soo Choo | The Strike Zone - SI.com

 

Making blanket statements speaking for what millions of people thought is a tough way to make a case.

 

I can think he was tremendously valuable and still not think a 30 something corner outfielder, masquerading as a CF, with limited power, is getting $15 million per. 7 years? He won't get more than 4 from anyone for any amount guaranteed. 7 years?

 

Choo is a 4 years, $12-13 per kind of player....tops. To factor in the 26 plunks like that is the new norm would be crazy.

No way I go more than 4 years on a contract to Choo. I am worried about going more than 3 years. I would pay him a little more annually than the market price if he would shorten the length of the contract. Now that we are moving out of the steroids era, I only trust the elite of the elite to be able to perform at age 35 and beyond. If he laughs at me for only offerring 3 or 4 years, I wish him well and move on to finding a replacement.

Making blanket statements speaking for what millions of people thought is a tough way to make a case.

 

I can think he was tremendously valuable and still not think a 30 something corner outfielder, masquerading as a CF, with limited power, is getting $15 million per. 7 years? He won't get more than 4 from anyone for any amount guaranteed. 7 years?

 

Choo is a 4 years, $12-13 per kind of player....tops. To factor in the 26 plunks like that is the new norm would be crazy.

 

I'll bet you anything you want on over 4 years and over $13M a year average. Two separate bets. I feel very confident I would win both. I feel you would have less than 1% of a chance to win both.

No way I go more than 4 years on a contract to Choo. I am worried about going more than 3 years. I would pay him a little more annually than the market price if he would shorten the length of the contract. Now that we are moving out of the steroids era, I only trust the elite of the elite to be able to perform at age 35 and beyond. If he laughs at me for only offerring 3 or 4 years, I wish him well and move on to finding a replacement.

 

I am not saying I would give it to him. I am saying he easily gets it.

Making blanket statements speaking for what millions of people thought is a tough way to make a case.

 

I can think he was tremendously valuable and still not think a 30 something corner outfielder, masquerading as a CF, with limited power, is getting $15 million per. 7 years? He won't get more than 4 from anyone for any amount guaranteed. 7 years?

 

Choo is a 4 years, $12-13 per kind of player....tops. To factor in the 26 plunks like that is the new norm would be crazy.

 

Also included in that blanket statement was me. I think he was their 2nd best player and Bruce was their third and even I didn't realize how good he was. Not taking a shot at fans at all.

I'll bet you anything you want on over 4 years and over $13M a year average. Two separate bets. I feel very confident I would win both. I feel you would have less than 1% of a chance to win both.

 

Less than a 1% chance? Where do you calculate these odds? So you'll give me 50/1 odds (I'm being generous)?

 

So I'm clear, you're saying he'll get 5+ years of GUARANTEED money (not including option years) and he'll average at least $14 million per in those 5 years? Sign me up!!

I am not saying I would give it to him. I am saying he easily gets it.

 

I understand your point, and the fact that Boras is his agent is my only reservation at all. I have to believe that Owners are starting to get smarter after the debacle contracts of Pujols and Fielder, to name two, not to mention Boras clients Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. That said, I'm confident that no one is dumb enough to give a 32 year old OF more than 4 guaranteed years.

 

Oh well...glad it isn't my money one way or the other....and I'm a Choo guy. I'd love to have the Reds re-sign him at a fair value.

Less than a 1% chance? Where do you calculate these odds? So you'll give me 50/1 odds (I'm being generous)?

 

So I'm clear, you're saying he'll get 5+ years of GUARANTEED money (not including option years) and he'll average at least $14 million per in those 5 years? Sign me up!!

 

I am saying he will for sure get one or the other. I think he gets both.

I think OPS is a great indicator of offensive skill and I wouldn't give anyone who can't get to .900 $15 million. If his 2009, 2010, and 2013 were what I was going to get for next 4 years, you could probably talk me into this. However, 2011 was a clunker and 2012 was about midpoint between 2011 and 2013, so those scare me. Then add in that we are talking years 32-35, and I get VERY cautious.

 

Forgetting whether or not I'd give him that, because I'm not sitting on $15 million, I don't think he'll end up with that from anyone.

 

Side-note: while I also love OPS, to lead off with "I don't care about power, speed, or defense" appears to be going over-board a little, doesn't it? I don't want to jump into your ongoing UKMF vs. Spindoc argument, I'm truly somewhere in the middle, but to "not care" about key pieces of his game and focus only on his ability to get on base and OPS seems like you're taking things to extremes.

 

You can add Choo won't get $15 million to my earlier prediction that Arroyo wouldn't get $10 million per (and that the Reds would never offer him a one-year tender for fear he'd take it).

 

Thanks for the "count on it" regarding Hanigan, I was looking for someone to give me some inside info with the Reds, I appreciate that. I'm sure finding a dance partner for a $4 million non-everyday catcher won't be a challenge.

 

You kinda swung and missed on this post on a couple of clubs, huh?