July 10, 201214 yr 46-31. The Reds will have a starting pitcher or two miss some starts. That will result in LeCure joining the starting rotation. Dusty will yield to the obvious and realize Rolen is no longer an everyday player. Latos will have a huge 2nd half. Pittsburgh will prove they are not a fluke. No fold this year. The Cardinals are the Cardinals, will add some help before the trading deadling and remain a factor. The race will go down to the wire with all three teams clubbing one another, no team pulling away or falling too far off the lead. The Reds will win the division. The Cardinals will be a wild card playoff participant. You say the Pirates will prove no fluke and the Cards will make moves and contend and the Reds will still play nearly .600 ball the rest of the way. I want some of what you are having.
July 10, 201214 yr Tried to break this down mathematically by looking at the first half performance. They have 9 teams that they've already played, that they play again after the All-Star break: Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, Astros, Pirates, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres. IF the same percentage of those games fall the same way they did in the first half, they'd win 34 out of the 60...which would put them at 81-64. They then have 17 games against 3 teams they've yet to face this year: the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Phillies. Which means as long as they win more than 50% of those games (9), they'd reach 90 wins for the year. So, 90 should be definitely attainable without too much stretch of the imagination. In another way, I also looked at the Reds' winning percentage at home thus far, and carried that over to the remaining number of home games in the second half. That would give them 25 more victories. Doing the same for on the road, they'd pick up another 18...so, that's 43 W's in the second half...which, also brings their win total to 90. By doing the same thing for the Pirates (who have already played 4 more home games thus far, but who did not seem to fair as well on the road) they would go 26-12 in Pittsburgh and 18-21 on the road...giving them an additional 44 W's...and putting them 2 games up on the Reds, with a total of 92. But, with all of that being said, I just can't see the Pirates continuing to play at the clip they've been playing. I feel a whole lot better about the Reds' pitching staff than I do theirs. I don't think Stubbs can play any worse than he has over the past couple of weeks, and I think Heisey and Ludwick have started to turn around. And if the Phils and Rockies continue to play the way they have, then Cincy winning 11 or 12 out of those 17 shouldn't be impossible. So...I'll go with the Reds finishing 94-68. If only real baseball were that easy. You sharing these same numbers with Dusty? He would love them and wouldn't have to worry about a thing. He could schedule his scrubs some ABs around the sure losses.
July 10, 201214 yr Way too many variables to predict the second half. Too many questions to be answered first: A) Will Dusty still be the manager at the end of the season? B) Will Rolen retire and make a spot for a productive player? C) Will the Reds find a way to produce more runs? D) Will Stubbs still be batting in the 2 hole? OK, answers those the best you can and lets hear your prediction? I will help you with the first one. Dusty isn't going anywhere. Remember you asked for it . My crystal ball is out of order at this time ,so I'll just wing it. A) Thanks for the help on this one, but I disagree with you. If the Reds take a nose dive after the break, Dusty will be on the hot seat especially after letting some games get away from them in the late innings before now. B) If Rolen doesn't retire, it only hurts the Reds, and him coaching wouldn't help either. C) The one way to get more runs is to start swinging at the good pitches, and not swinging at the ones that are over their head. Take advantage of the running game more often. D) I hope not, 8 hole sounds better at this tiime.
July 10, 201214 yr Nearly .600 the rest of the year huh? They played .607 ball in May. No reason to think they can't get close to that the rest of the year, barring any major injuries, against the weakest schedule in the NL.
July 10, 201214 yr Remember you asked for it . My crystal ball is out of order at this time ,so I'll just wing it. A) Thanks for the help on this one, but I disagree with you. If the Reds take a nose dive after the break, Dusty will be on the hot seat especially after letting some games get away from them in the late innings before now. B) If Rolen doesn't retire, it only hurts the Reds, and him coaching wouldn't help either. C) The one way to get more runs is to start swinging at the good pitches, and not swinging at the ones that are over their head. Take advantage of the running game more often. D) I hope not, 8 hole sounds better at this tiime. Dusty will be the manager at the end of the season, whether you (and other) like it or not. No way Rolen retires, hopefully Dusty limits his playing time It can't get any worse. What running game are you talking about? They have one stolen base threat and he can't get on base. Again, It can't get any worse.
July 10, 201214 yr ttt. Edited July 10, 201214 yr by Flotsam Wanted to scrub the pic. Couldn't figure out how.
July 10, 201214 yr You say the Pirates will prove no fluke and the Cards will make moves and contend and the Reds will still play nearly .600 ball the rest of the way. I want some of what you are having. No prob. There is plenty to go around.
July 11, 201214 yr Remember you asked for it . My crystal ball is out of order at this time ,so I'll just wing it. A) Thanks for the help on this one, but I disagree with you. If the Reds take a nose dive after the break, Dusty will be on the hot seat especially after letting some games get away from them in the late innings before now. B) If Rolen doesn't retire, it only hurts the Reds, and him coaching wouldn't help either. C) The one way to get more runs is to start swinging at the good pitches, and not swinging at the ones that are over their head. Take advantage of the running game more often. D) I hope not, 8 hole sounds better at this tiime. Ok so what's the prediction?
July 11, 201214 yr Dusty will be the manager at the end of the season, whether you (and other) like it or not. No way Rolen retires, hopefully Dusty limits his playing time It can't get any worse. What running game are you talking about? They have one stolen base threat and he can't get on base. Again, It can't get any worse. I really don't care who the manager is,now or later. Exactly, if you have a team that can't swing the bat, then you need to steal some bases. Why not start now? I love this phrase " It can't get any worse", you ever heard of Murphy's law ? So by your quote things are near rock bottom already and Dusty doesn't have anything to worry about? What's wrong with that picture? :lol: As for Rolen , I don't have anything against him other than being "over the hill" and non productive. If Dusty would manage like he should then maybe they can get someone who can hit AND steal a base.
July 11, 201214 yr Ok so what's the prediction? Anyone can sit back and throw some numbers at you , so I won't do that.What I will do is tell you that I have nothing against Dusty. I think the Reds have some major areas to improve in, weather they make the playoffs or not. Your a Reds fan and so am I, but I don't wear the rose colored glasses that most Reds fans wear. I am a realist,so I will sit back and watch these professionals, get out on base running errors, strike out more than walk, not get timely hits, don't move the runners over by bunting with runners on and less than two outs, play small ball and play great D. Yea, a lot of these calls are Dusty's ,right? Joey Votto is the pack mule for the Reds, he can only carry some players for so long, then it will wear on him. Then what will the Reds have, can Rolen play first base if Votto gets injured? :popcorn:
July 11, 201214 yr I really don't care who the manager is,now or later. Exactly, if you have a team that can't swing the bat, then you need to steal some bases. Why not start now? I love this phrase " It can't get any worse", you ever heard of Murphy's law ? So by your quote things are near rock bottom already and Dusty doesn't have anything to worry about? What's wrong with that picture? :lol: As for Rolen , I don't have anything against him other than being "over the hill" and non productive. If Dusty would manage like he should then maybe they can get someone who can hit AND steal a base. You have to have people with the ability to run for there to be a running game. The Reds have one person with speed, and he can't get on base. Yes, things can't get any worse IMO and they are 1 game out of first. That's a good sign for the second half...
July 11, 201214 yr Author You have to have people with the ability to run for there to be a running game. The Reds have one person with speed, and he can't get on base. Yes, things can't get any worse IMO and they are 1 game out of first. That's a good sign for the second half... You don't think Phillips, Heisey and Cozart can be successful in the running game?
July 11, 201214 yr You don't think Phillips, Heisey and Cozart can be successful in the running game? Depends how you define success, I suppose. I don't think those guys can steal any more than 7-10 bases with a success rate of 65% or higher. They could get a few here and there, but that's not success in my book. BP's running game ended in 2009 and has only gone down hill from there.
July 11, 201214 yr You don't think Phillips, Heisey and Cozart can be successful in the running game? They could if Dusty would take the handcuffs off.
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