nWo

Here is what the very latest HRRR is showing for today. Remnants of the storms that tore through the Plain States should enter western Kentucky around 9 am EDT. Some could still be strong to severe, with a possibility of producing a tornado. Given the conditions forecast for later today, any individual storm that pops up could become supercellular and produce damaging winds, hail, and a possible tornado. This threat will be present throughout the day. Around 4 pm EDT things should start to really pop. Individual storms should start forming. Everyone across the state should be weather aware. The threat will continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Then we will be going through a severe weather threat again during the day on Wednesday. All severe weather modes will be possible today.

As I predicted yesterday, the threat level has increased in most of Indiana, western and southwestern Ohio, and a section of Kentucky. ..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... Throughout the Ohio Valley, sporadic severe thunderstorms are predicted for today. It looks conceivable that there may be a few tornadoes, high winds, large to extremely large hail, and severe or destructive winds. According to current models, convection related to this trough will continue and move into the middle of the Mississippi Valley by daybreak. After that, it will go downstream and maybe diminish in the morning. But following this initial activity, boundary-layer heating will produce an air mass that is moderate to extremely unstable by early afternoon. As temperatures rise into the 70s and almost 80F, convective temperatures should be easily broken, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop around the southern edge of the main jet stream. Forecast soundings over the Ohio Valley show suitable shear/buoyancy for supercells. Storms that develop in this kind of setting will probably stay isolated or maybe form some kind of cluster. Large hail and a few severe tornadoes are possible. In addition, damaging winds are possible.

This is his set up

Here's what the HRRR is showing. The first one is precipitation. The second one shows the lightning. It looks like some of these storms will be quite intense.

For Tuesday, the level of severe threat has been increased to level 3 Enhanced Risk in eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and central Ohio. In further updates, it would not surprise me if the Enhanced area was extended to encompass parts of Kentucky and southeast Indiana.

Not counting the major weather networks, who or how do you watch a severe weather event? There are several on YouTube. You can watch the one you choose on your mobile device even if you lose power in your home or business. My daughter told me she watches him too. I normally watch Kentucky's own Ryan Hall. He lives in Pikeville, Kentucky, I think. https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYallXTRA

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 061324 KSZ000-OKZ000-061800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

I neglected to mention that the High Risk Area is at level 5 out of 5. The highest threat there is.

I worry that Oklahoma could suffer catastrophic destruction and perhaps lose some lives today. From this afternoon through this evening, areas of the south-central Plains are predicted to experience a regional outbreak of severe weather that could include several powerful, long-tracked tornadoes, very big hail, and significant thunderstorm gusts. The CSU-MLP map illustrates this. I will use this new data to forecast the likelihood of the various severe weather modes. In the High Risk Area, there is a 30-45% risk of tornadoes. a 45–60% probability of hail. Additionally, there is a 30-45% probability of damaging winds.

I know, and the threat level may be raised again. If the modeling guidance continues to show it is needed.

I just received this from the NWS-Louisville office: The slide map is from the Storm Prediction Center. The categorical maps are the same as the ones I posted earlier.

The threat level for severe weather has increased to level 3 Enhanced Risk, as I had predicted. There is a chance of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, extending from areas of the southern Plains into the Tennessee, Ohio, and mid-Mississippi Valleys. There should be all of the extreme risks, such as tornadoes, enormous hail, and strong or destructive winds. There might be some powerful tornadoes. Very big hail will be a worry with early supercells, and severe/damaging winds will probably become a bigger concern as intense convection moves east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening, even if convective evolution is still somewhat unknown. Throughout the day, a moderate to strong low-level jet is expected to move eastward across the mid-MS and OH Valleys, supporting increased low-level shear, particularly close to the warm front. In this ideal shear environment, supercells will raise the risk of tornadoes. Because of the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic conditions, some of these tornadoes may be strong until at least Wednesday night.

On Tuesday, there is a chance of isolated, strong thunderstorms moving northeast from the Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley. big to extremely big hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are likely. The possibility of a more serious threat is complicated by the impact of early-morning convection. However, it is likely that there will be regeneration along the leading edge and/or outflow of the early convection throughout Tuesday afternoon. Supercells and multicell clusters may coexist in an overall mode that could be a little disorganized. In any case, large to extremely large hail should be produced by any persistent supercell. There is enough low-level shear linked to a 25–35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet to sustain updraft rotation and pose a risk for a few tornadoes, mostly in the Ohio Valley. A higher risk of severe or destructive winds would arise if thunderstorms were able to cluster into one or more of these formations. On Tuesday night, this convection should move into the western regions of the central Appalachians before finally diminishing.

I really do not like what Wednesday's models are showing. Currently, there is a bigger risk than before. I fully expect sections of Kentucky to be designated as a Level 3 Enhance Risk Area if this pattern continues. The timing of the storms remains uncertain; however, there may be some discrete cell formation as well as an additional linear mode. Every severe weather scenario will be probable. We could expect dew points in the low to mid-70s. This could add fuel to the fire if tornadoes form. The period covered in the following maps is from Wednesday at 8 am to Thursday at 2 am.