I worry that Oklahoma could suffer catastrophic destruction and perhaps lose some lives today. From this afternoon through this evening, areas of the south-central Plains are predicted to experience a regional outbreak of severe weather that could include several powerful, long-tracked tornadoes, very big hail, and significant thunderstorm gusts.

 

 

 

 

 

The CSU-MLP map illustrates this. I will use this new data to forecast the likelihood of the various severe weather modes.

In the High Risk Area, there is a 30-45% risk of tornadoes. a 45–60% probability of hail. Additionally, there is a 30-45% probability of damaging winds. 

 

 

I'll be locked in with KFOR this afternoon to keep track of the storms in Oklahoma. 

https://kfor.com/

I'm currently working via Teams collaboration with some guys in Tulsa.  I'm sure that they will be giving me updates too.

I neglected to mention that the High Risk Area is at level 5 out of 5. The highest threat there is. 

 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 061324
   KSZ000-OKZ000-061800-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and
   tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Much of Oklahoma
     Central and eastern Kansas

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Widespread large hail, some baseball size
     Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force

   * SUMMARY...
     A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong,
     long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe
     thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central
     Plains from this afternoon through evening.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

Been monitoring this since I saw the alert on NWS early this morning. 

It's going to get rough over the next 8 hours out there.

Here's what the HRRR is showing. The first one is precipitation. The second one shows the lightning. It looks like some of these storms will be quite intense.

 

 

Live stream here for the rest of the night.