On Tuesday, there is a chance of isolated, strong thunderstorms moving northeast from the Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley. big to extremely big hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are likely.

The possibility of a more serious threat is complicated by the impact of early-morning convection. However, it is likely that there will be regeneration along the leading edge and/or outflow of the early convection throughout Tuesday afternoon. Supercells and multicell clusters may coexist in an overall mode that could be a little disorganized. In any case, large to extremely large hail should be produced by any persistent supercell. There is enough low-level shear linked to a 25–35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet to sustain updraft rotation and pose a risk for a few tornadoes, mostly in the Ohio Valley. A higher risk of severe or destructive winds would arise if thunderstorms were able to cluster into one or more of these formations. On Tuesday night, this convection should move into the western regions of the central Appalachians before finally diminishing.

 

 

 

 

I just received this from the NWS-Louisville office:

Quote

 

Good morning,

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible starting as early as tomorrow (Tuesday) and continuing into early Thursday morning. Damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible in severe storms. The greatest (and potentially significant) round of severe weather looks to arrive later Wednesday into early Thursday morning ahead of a cold front. 

Please see the attached slide for the latest severe weather outlook. A conference call may be scheduled later this afternoon to discuss this threat, so monitor your email later this morning for more info about that. 

Let us know if you have any questions. 

Thanks,

NWS Louisville

 

The slide map is from the Storm Prediction Center. The categorical maps are the same as the ones I posted earlier. 

For Tuesday, the level of severe threat has been increased to level 3 Enhanced Risk in eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and central Ohio. In further updates, it would not surprise me if the Enhanced area was extended to encompass parts of Kentucky and southeast Indiana.

 

As I predicted yesterday, the threat level has increased in most of Indiana, western and southwestern Ohio, and a section of Kentucky. 

 

 

..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...

Throughout the Ohio Valley, sporadic severe thunderstorms are predicted for today. It looks conceivable that there may be a few tornadoes, high winds, large to extremely large hail, and severe or destructive winds.

According to current models, convection related to this trough will continue and move into the middle of the Mississippi Valley by daybreak. After that, it will go downstream and maybe diminish in the morning. But following this initial activity, boundary-layer heating will produce an air mass that is moderate to extremely unstable by early afternoon. As temperatures rise into the 70s and almost 80F, convective temperatures should be easily broken, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop around the southern edge of the main jet stream. Forecast soundings over the Ohio Valley show suitable shear/buoyancy for supercells. Storms that develop in this kind of setting will probably stay isolated or maybe form some kind of cluster. Large hail and a few severe tornadoes are possible. In addition, damaging winds are possible.

Here is what the very latest HRRR is showing for today. Remnants of the storms that tore through the Plain States should enter western Kentucky around 9 am EDT. Some could still be strong to severe, with a possibility of producing a tornado. Given the conditions forecast for later today, any individual storm that pops up could become supercellular and produce damaging winds, hail, and a possible tornado. This threat will be present throughout the day. Around 4 pm EDT things should start to really pop.  Individual storms should start forming. Everyone across the state should be weather aware. The threat will continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Then we will be going through a severe weather threat again during the day on Wednesday. All severe weather modes will be possible today.

We’re off and running. Two Tornado Warning’s just north and west of Louisville right now. 

Confirmed tornado on the ground just west of Charlestown, IN.

 

 

 

 

Boone County just a few minutes ago.

7 minutes ago, theguru said:

Boone County just a few minutes ago.

Wicked. 

3 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

Wicked. 

Yes and mesmerizing to me.