New poll data released today shows Romney with a huge lead over Santorum in South Carolina (primary held Jan. 21st). Romney is leading with 35% backing to Santorum's 18%.

 

Many feel that if Romney wins NH (almost a given) and SC, the nomination is already wrapped up for the former MA Gov.

New poll data released today shows Romney with a huge lead over Santorum in South Carolina (primary held Jan. 21st). Romney is leading with 35% backing to Santorum's 18%.

 

Many feel that if Romney wins NH (almost a given) and SC, the nomination is already wrapped up for the former MA Gov.

If Romney can win a southern state convincingly I think he has it.

Gives you delegates towards the magic number of earning the party's nomination. Gives you momentum and fund-raising to continue your campaign into other states.

 

Thanks. That is what I was looking for.

Thanks. That is what I was looking for.

 

Now it's worth mentioning that the Republican primaries are done in a manner where it's not a "winner take all" format. Thus, Romney, Paul, and Santorum all pretty much receive the same number of delegates (I think).

 

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on that.

If Romney can win a southern state convincingly I think he has it.

 

It definitely helps when a lot of the influential people in these states are starting to throw their support behind Romney (a la Gov. Haley in SC).

Now it's worth mentioning that the Republican primaries are done in a manner where it's not a "winner take all" format. Thus, Romney, Paul, and Santorum all pretty much receive the same number of delegates (I think).

 

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong on that.

It's dependent on the state I think. Iowa is one like that, but I don't believe they all are.

New poll data released today shows Romney with a huge lead over Santorum in South Carolina (primary held Jan. 21st). Romney is leading with 35% backing to Santorum's 18%.

 

Many feel that if Romney wins NH (almost a given) and SC, the nomination is already wrapped up for the former MA Gov.

He may have a huge lead over Santorum, but RCP is showing Gingrich polling pretty close to him.

 

What will be really interesting is when Santorum or Gingrich drops out...who do they throw their support to?

While not the most typical southern state, RCP is showing Gingrich ahead of Romney in Florida still....

 

This one is a little older, I'd be curious to see a more recent poll.

I think these polls add strength to the argument, that while Obama may be down the GOP field is so weak he will probably still win. Obama is beating every major GOP candidate, but he is losing to a "generic Republican.

He may have a huge lead over Santorum, but RCP is showing Gingrich polling pretty close to him.

 

What will be really interesting is when Santorum or Gingrich drops out...who do they throw their support to?

 

RCP is an aggregate, so some of the polls in that aren't up to date. But there is recent one poll showing Romney with a huge lead in SC and the other two recent polls show it as a dead heat, more or less, so it's hard to tell which to put any faith in.

 

If either Santorum or Gingrich dropped out right now, Romney would be in big trouble. But as long as they split votes between them Romney has an advantage. By the time either Santorum or Gingrich end up calling it quits it will probably be too late for a major vote consolidation against Romney.

I think these polls add strength to the argument, that while Obama may be down the GOP field is so weak he will probably still win. Obama is beating every major GOP candidate, but he is losing to a "generic Republican.

 

Don't think an average 2.2% with Romney leading in some polls would lend itself to "probably" at this point. That's certainly within the margin of error I would think. Not with unemployment still over 8% anyway. If it continues to drop though I don't see Obama losing.

RCP is an aggregate, so some of the polls in that aren't up to date. But there is recent one poll showing Romney with a huge lead in SC and the other two recent polls show it as a dead heat, more or less, so it's hard to tell which to put any faith in.

 

If either Santorum or Gingrich dropped out right now, Romney would be in big trouble. But as long as they split votes between them Romney has an advantage. By the time either Santorum or Gingrich end up calling it quits it will probably be too late for a major vote consolidation against Romney.

I thought this particular one was only an aggregate of the last three polls?

Don't think an average 2.2% with Romney leading in some polls would lend itself to "probably" at this point. That's certainly within the margin of error I would think. Not with unemployment still over 8% anyway. If it continues to drop though I don't see Obama losing.

I'm just saying that these polls help to strengthen that argument. In no poll is a candidate beating Obama...

 

Don't you find it a little telling that a "generic Republican" is leading Obama but no actual Republican candidate is beating him?

 

The way many Romney supporters make it, you'd think he was destined to beat Obama if only the GOP will nominate him. If nothing else, that seems to be the only reason I've heard for voting for him.

I thought this particular one was only an aggregate of the last three polls?

 

You're right, I clicked on the Florida one and saw the December dates. :lol:

You're right, I clicked on the Florida one and saw the December dates. :lol:

Yea, I can't find anything more recent for Florida.