Hensley Rating System picks for tonight's games

[statmanhensley]

I know that everyone is going to look at this and say WHAT??? Well what I have done this week is taken the power ratings from the Courier-Journal and the Herald-Leader, added them together and taken the average for each team. Then I took each game and found out the difference between the 2 averages. One other thing that I am doing is adding 6 points to every team that's playing at home this week because the home field advantage in the playoffs gives everyone at least one touchdown.

 

So here they are:

 

Class A

Mayfield over Crittenden County by 17

Metcalfe County over Murray by 22.1

Bardtown over Frankfort by 23.1

Danville over Louisville Holy Cross by 27.8

Newport Central Catholic over Bellevue by 18.7 (there was no additional point added to NCC because the game is being played at a neutral site)

Beechwood over lexington Christian Academy by 6

Somerset over Pikeville by 13.5

Painstville over Lynn camp by 1

 

Class AA

Fort Campbell over Caldwell County by 37.1

Owensboro Catholic over Trigg County by 5.6

Western over Wayne County by 27.8

Desales over Corbin by 4.9

Newport over East Carter by 16.9

Russell over Mercer County by 17.4

Leslie County over Sheldon Clark by 26.5

Belfry over Middlesboro by 21.7

 

Class AAA

Hopkinsville over Franklin-Simpson by 22.2

Bowling Green over Paducah Tilghman by 30.7

Bullitt East over Southwestern by 12.7

Boyle County over Central by 14.2

Highlands over Franklin County by 13.1

Lexington Catholic over Covington Catholic by 3.7

Bell County over Madison Southern by 12.7

Ashland Blazer over Rockcastle County by 6.9

 

Class AAAA

Warren Central over Graves County by 28

Christian County over Apollo by 0.8

Male over John Hardin by 5.4

St. Xavier over DuPont Manual by 10.2 (this is another game that I did not give the 6 points to anyone because both teams play their games at Manual Stadium)

Louisville Trinity over Fern Creek by 24.3

Dixie Heights over Boone County by 7.3

Henry Clay over South Laurel by 21.2

Paul L. Dunbar over Scott County by 7.9

 

 

I know that there will be some people that look at this and think that I am personally picking these game but I am not. If anyone wants to see what I did for themselves, just add the Lit Rating and Cantrell Ratings together to get a sum. Divide that sum by 2 and find the difference between the two schools in question.

 

There are also some games that I have on here with the team winning by less that 6 points.....that's because there are some games in which the visiting team is the favorite but since I have given each home team 6 points, that's either made the visiting winning by fewer than the average or it pushes the home team over into the win side.

 

I hope that I haven't confused too many people with this. I will post the same kind of thing next week when the power ratings come out.

 

THANKS AND GOOD LUCK TO ALL TEAMS TONIGHT!!!!!

[rockmom]

Stat, thanks for the hard work! I personally like your system's picks!

[tomcatsalute]

Your a smart man. This all makes since. Man that Ashland game is going to be close by your rating system- I hope your system is wrong just in that game. Good work...

[Cannon Crazy]

I like them too. Nice job :thumb:

[statmanhensley]

So everyone agrees that each home team in the playoffs should be awarded 6 points???

 

I think it's just a given due to the atmospheres that the home team generates plus they're used to the playing onditions at their respective field.

[knightsdad]

You may want to cancel your day job and do this for a living. Good job.

[Watusi]

Keep track of it and let us know how you do. :thumb:

[colonel-fan]

One comment - with some of these rematches such as Boone/Dixie, St.X/Manual, and Trinity/Fern Creek there isn't the travel involved as say in a Mercer/Russell or a DeSales/Corbin game. I don't know how it could be factored in, but the home field edge would seem to be less for a Dixie (Boone is 10 minutes away and plays there at least every other year) than it it for a Corbin (who plays a DeSales team that probably has never been to Corbin before, on a bus ride that long this year, and are unfamiliar with the Redhound tradition).

[H]

WHAT?!?!

[colonel-fan]

Since it is a slow day, I'll throw out my picks as well:

 

Mayfield by 10

Metcalfe by 14

Bardstown by 10

Danville by 13

Beechwood by 12

NewCath by 7

Lynn Camp by 10

Somerset by 7

 

OCath by 1

Ft. Campbell by 28

DeSales by 3

Western by 14

Russell by 7

Newport by 11

Belfry by 14

Leslie by 14

 

Bowling Green by 21

Hoptown by 10

Bullitt East by 1

Boyle by 14

CovCath by 1

Highlands by 10

Ashland by 6

Bell by 7

 

Christian by 7

Warren Central by 21

St. X by 14

Male by 7

Trinity by 14

Boone by 1

Henry Clay by 14

Dunbar by 3

[Kick]

So everyone agrees that each home team in the playoffs should be awarded 6 points???

 

I think it's just a given due to the atmospheres that the home team generates plus they're used to the playing onditions at their respective field.

 

 

I applaud your work but I'm not sure about the six points, maybe 3 instead. :thumb:

[statmanhensley]

The reason why I did the six point add on is because that's what I've always been told that you should do. I will definitely try to keep up with all of this and repost what the actual outcome compared to my outcomes sometime tomorrow morning because that will be the next chance that I will have to post after 3:30pm today.

[Latch]

The reason why I did the six point add on is because that's what I've always been told that you should do. I will definitely try to keep up with all of this and repost what the actual outcome compared to my outcomes sometime tomorrow morning because that will be the next chance that I will have to post after 3:30pm today.

 

I think the six poits is the total. As kick has already said it should probably be three. That makes for a 6 point swing. The way you have it is actually a 12 point swing. For instance you left the NCC game alone b/c of the nuetral field. I don't think homefield should be a two touchdown swing on the total.

[Latch]

I think the six poits is the total. As kick has already said it should probably be three. That makes for a 6 point swing. The way you have it is actually a 12 point swing. For instance you left the NCC game alone b/c of the nuetral field. I don't think homefield should be a two touchdown swing on the total.

 

I am in no way trying to say you've done a bad job or anything like that. Just trying to help. Another way of looking at it...The Colts are favored by 17 at home this week. If the game were in Houston it wouldn't be 5. It would be closer to 11 or 12.

[statmanhensley]

Thanks for the information. That does kind of make a little more sense. I guess I got all excited about posting something like this. I will however wait to see how this week's picks go to decide if I will change it to a 3 point advantage for home teams because if this way works then why fix it BUT if it doesn't then it will most certainly be changed.

 

THANKS for the info!!!!