Any Info would be appreciated....

Where are the kids going to come from for this school? Who gets "dinged"...Greenwood? Bowling Green? Warren Central? Warren East? All four?

 

Does WSHS look to be a power early? How big will they be, and what happens to the football classifications of the other schools?

 

Inquiring minds want to know!! :popcorn:

Greenwood gets gutted, Warren Central takes a slight hit. They should be 4A when all is said and done, but won't play varsity until 2011. South Warren may never be a power. They're comprised heavily of players from Greenwood. When Greenwood opened it took half the population from Warren Central when WC was coming off of two state championship appearances. They did not manage to win a playoff game until 2008, 17 years later. Last year was THE year for Greenwood. I don't expect any better of an opening for South Warren.

Greenwood gets gutted, Warren Central takes a slight hit. They should be 4A when all is said and done, but won't play varsity until 2011. South Warren may never be a power. They're comprised heavily of players from Greenwood. When Greenwood opened it took half the population from Warren Central when WC was coming off of two state championship appearances. They did not manage to win a playoff game until 2008, 17 years later. Last year was THE year for Greenwood. I don't expect any better of an opening for South Warren.

 

What class does Greenwood fall into...does WC fall into 4A as well?

What class does Greenwood fall into...does WC fall into 4A as well?

 

Well, that's still tough to tell. Every would-be senior gets the option of staying, and because South Warren isn't offering varsity next year, every player that has seen varsity time in a game is being given that option for next year as well. But after that, they're playing hard and fast with the lines. So the real question is how long it will take for the enrollment hit to show up in the realignment figures, or whether the KHSAA would make an exception. Usually it's done on the past two year average, and when the next alignment comes up, Greenwood and Warren Central will likely not show any effects yet. But Greenwood especially will be significantly smaller so I don't know what the KHSAA will do.

 

As far as where their number would actually dictate them, Greenwood will at least go to 5A. They didn't lose nearly as much as they were supposed to, which I think was mismanagement in the first place since that was the entire purpose for the school. Their administrators told the county they needed to take at least 40% of their 1700-1750 or so students. They took something like 30-35%. I think those numbers would still place them in 5A. Central is anticipated to lose about 150. Keep in mind these are combined, not male only, so I don't know what the hit will be on those. Central may fall to 4A, and probably hopes they do. Their district in 5A is no place to be. I reject the notion they can't compete as some have said, as Bowling Green is the only team in there that has historically given them trouble. But still, even as good as Lone Oak, AC/S, and Franklin are, I'd take that trade.

Their district in 5A is no place to be. I reject the notion they can't compete as some have said, as Bowling Green is the only team in there that has historically given them trouble.

What? Grayson Co. owns the Dragons! :popcorn:

What? Grayson Co. owns the Dragons! :popcorn:

 

Historically.....

 

I really still can't believe they beat them this year, but they sure did it. They'll win few points from me for beating the previous year's team which was just awful. But for the sake of your argument, Bowling Green and Grayson County. Whatever it is, I don't think it would hurt to get out of there.

I only kid Dragonfire:thumb:

Central won't drop to 4A...Greenwood will be in 6A in 2010 and then in 2011 will be determined by the realignment that has yet to be determined. Central will be 5A in 2010 and again will be determined by whatever the realignment does. If it remains the same as it has been, in 2011, Greenwood would remain in 6A despite the losses to SW, and Central is firmly a 5A school, despite the losses to SW. The only school in Warren County close to dropping is BGHS which is right on the bottom line of 5A.

Warren Central has 3 boys less than Bowling Green in the last enrollment figures, and Central's current senior class has more boys than Bowling Green's. How do you figure Bowling Green is close to the bottom and Central is firmly in?

 

There are four 4A schools (North Bullitt, Bullitt East, Logan County, and East Jessamine) that already have a higher male enrollment than Warren Central, and Central will drop behind more if they lose even 50 males to the new school. I think it'll be close, and in no way will they firmly be in 5A. The only thing I don't know is exactly what years they will base the next one off of, but you can bet without a rebound by the next one it will be very close.

 

The numbers I am using are from the latest report: http://www.khsaa.org/reports/enrollments/20092010schoolenrollmenttotalsbyenroll.pdf . I know it's a two year average, but I assume that this year's figures will be part of that average.

I just know what I've been told by people who have a tendency to be right about these things.

Is it me or does it seem like South Warren's success, at least early on, will depend on how this new realignment is going to turn out?

 

IF Greenwood only falls to 5A and BG/Warren Central stay there also, then South will be in better shape than if a couple of those were to drop to 4A to join the likes of a district already made up of Franklin-Simpson, Allen County-Scottsville, etc.

I just know what I've been told by people who have a tendency to be right about these things.

 

I'm sure they know more about it than me, but I sure don't understand it then. Maybe they have some more insight into what the enrollments will be.

My sources say BG/Greenwood in 5A with Warren Central/Warren East/S Warren in 4A.

Owensboro falls to 4A as well. This is starting with the 2011 realignment.

 

All of this is speculation at this point.

Well, that's still tough to tell. Every would-be senior gets the option of staying, and because South Warren isn't offering varsity next year, every player that has seen varsity time in a game is being given that option for next year as well. But after that, they're playing hard and fast with the lines. So the real question is how long it will take for the enrollment hit to show up in the realignment figures, or whether the KHSAA would make an exception. Usually it's done on the past two year average, and when the next alignment comes up, Greenwood and Warren Central will likely not show any effects yet. But Greenwood especially will be significantly smaller so I don't know what the KHSAA will do.

 

As far as where their number would actually dictate them, Greenwood will at least go to 5A. They didn't lose nearly as much as they were supposed to, which I think was mismanagement in the first place since that was the entire purpose for the school. Their administrators told the county they needed to take at least 40% of their 1700-1750 or so students. They took something like 30-35%. I think those numbers would still place them in 5A. Central is anticipated to lose about 150. Keep in mind these are combined, not male only, so I don't know what the hit will be on those. Central may fall to 4A, and probably hopes they do. Their district in 5A is no place to be. I reject the notion they can't compete as some have said, as Bowling Green is the only team in there that has historically given them trouble. But still, even as good as Lone Oak, AC/S, and Franklin are, I'd take that trade.

 

On the 2009-10 alignment PDF on the KHSAA site, it indicates that Greenwood (and Shelby Co., for that matter) will be leaving its current district for the 2010 season. It says that where they'll land will be determined before the end of the current school year.