Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2009 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for each class and the HRS predictions:

121.00 St. Xavier

111.75 Highlands

110.50 Trinity (Louisville)

106.45 Boyle County

104.10 Bell County

100.75 Fort Campbell

99.80 Bowling Green

96.20 John Hardin

95.35 Lone Oak

93.05 Scott County

90.10 Lexington Christian

89.00 Marion County

87.20 Greenwood

85.60 DeSales

82.60 Prestonsburg

82.40 Central

79.75 Beechwood

78.40 Mayfield

76.80 Pulaski County

74.80 Monroe County

72.95 Somerset

71.70 Sheldon Clark

70.25 Hazard

68.75 Paducah Tilghman

Class 1A

Beechwood (9-4) at Mayfield (12-1) - MHS by 4.65

Hazard (9-4) at Lexington Christian (12-1) - LCA by 25.85

 

Class 2A

Monroe Co. (10-3) @ Fort Campbell (13-0) - FC by 31.95

Prestonsburg (13-0) at DeSales (10-3) - DHS by 9

 

Class 3A

Central (8-5) at Paducah Tilghman (7-6) - CHS by 7.65

Sheldon Clark (9-4) at Somerset (13-0) - SHS by 7.25

 

Class 4A

Marion Co. (11-2) at Lone Oak (13-0) - LO by 12.35

Bell Co. (12-1) at Boyle Co. (13-0) - Boyle by 8.35

 

Class 5A

John Hardin (13-0) at Bowling Green (11-2) - BG by 9.6

Pulaski Co. (10-3) at Highlands (13-0) - HHS by 40.95

 

Class 6A

St. Xavier (12-1) at Greenwood (10-3) - X by 27.8

Scott Co. (10-3) at Trinity (9-4) - T by 23.45

Looks like the Beechwood / Mayfield game is the closest game according to your system. If they were to play on a neutral field your system would have Beechwood wining. Is this one of the games you think might go the other way?

I'm not a Highlands grad nor do I have any ties to the school but I believe in a head to head matchup Highlands beats St. X. this year. This is the fastest and most athletic Highlands team I've ever seen. I understand your numbers and I agree how you see things, but I still believe Highlands is the best football team in the State.

I'm not a Highlands grad nor do I have any ties to the school but I believe in a head to head matchup Highlands beats St. X. this year. This is the fastest and most athletic Highlands team I've ever seen. I understand your numbers and I agree how you see things, but I still believe Highlands is the best football team in the State.

 

I would probably disagree. I have seen both teams play and I think ST X would win easily. ST X is just as fast, if not faster, and has more depth. They are also bigger. Just my opinion.

I would probably disagree. I have seen both teams play and I think ST X would win easily. ST X is just as fast, if not faster, and has more depth. They are also bigger. Just my opinion.

Explain that to Cincy St. X. I think they would beg to differ.

I'm not a Highlands grad nor do I have any ties to the school but I believe in a head to head matchup Highlands beats St. X. this year. This is the fastest and most athletic Highlands team I've ever seen. I understand your numbers and I agree how you see things, but I still believe Highlands is the best football team in the State.

 

I don't see it.....but that's just me. This will be debated after the season, i am sure.

Explain that to Cincy St. X. I think they would beg to differ.

 

Come on....that was eon's ago....besides we all have our opinions at this point.

Come on....that was eon's ago....besides we all have our opinions at this point.

 

True, that's the fuel that drives this website!

Thanks for sharing, I for one, certainly hope the predictions hold true. I've had my fill of close games this year.

 

Later.

Come on....that was eon's ago...

Only if you define an "eon" as seven days. :lol:

I don't see it.....but that's just me.

Acceptance is the first step to recovery.

Acceptance is the first step to recovery.

Funny!

I would probably disagree. I have seen both teams play and I think ST X would win easily. ST X is just as fast, if not faster, and has more depth. They are also bigger. Just my opinion.

 

I've only seen X on tape and tape can be misleading I admit. But watching the Highlands vs Cincy X tape and then watching X vs Cincy X tape right after it, you can see how teams fare against the same matchups. X has some nice speed on the field at the skilled positions and in the defensive secondary. Faster than Highlands? I didn't think so overall, but right there with us. Where I saw the big disparity was the quickness and speed on the lines. Highlands is much quicker and faster on the line. Which is the reason in my opinion Highlands moved the ball against Cincy X and defended the ball against Cincy X better than X did. X does have better size than Highlands, but as readers of this site are aware (painfully so) I don't think size is the advantage that people think it is. Give me properly designed offenses and defenses, and I'll take the smaller, faster linemen over the bigger slower linemen every Friday night. Cincy X found that out earlier in the year and JC did this past Friday night too.

 

As for depth, most years X would have a big advantage over Highlands. They may still have some advantage this year, but I don't think it is a difference maker if both teams are healthy going into the game. That might be one of those games where the home field determines the outcome. In any event, I don't see X beating Highlands easily. Not this year. If any thing, I see Highlands winning in a close game. And that is just my opinion.

Highlands is the best in the commonwealth hands down! They are ranked higher in every national poll. The only ones they are not is those two crappy biased polls out of Lou. and Lex. The Birds would beat Lou.X by 21 and Trinity by 30+:ylsuper:

I am going way out on a limb here but I am going to say that Fc does not beat Monroe by 35...They may not beat them at all...this scaled really missed them all the other times why any different now!!!!!:ohbrother: