October 23, 200817 yr If the voters are middle of the road as you claim, wouldn't it make sense that they wouldn't be embarrassed to support a Democratic candidate? I don't see what benefit they would get from saying they would vote for McCain instead of Obama. FWIW, I've yet to meet anyone that I really agree with on politics....:lol:
October 23, 200817 yr If the voters are middle of the road as you claim, wouldn't it make sense that they wouldn't be embarrassed to support a Democratic candidate? I don't see what benefit they would get from saying they would vote for McCain instead of Obama. :thumb: I agree. I'm overstating it as much as I think the Bradley-effect is overstated. My point, boiled down, is that I think it's more likely that Obama outperforms the polls than underperforms and it's because there may be a lot of people out there that don't fit the traditional mold as someone who would vote for a liberal candidate, but are going to anyhow because of economic concerns.
October 23, 200817 yr :thumb: I agree. I'm overstating it as much as I think the Bradley-effect is overstated. My point, boiled down, is that I think it's more likely that Obama outperforms the polls than underperforms and it's because there may be a lot of people out there that don't fit the traditional mold as someone who would vote for a liberal candidate, but are going to anyhow because of economic concerns. The "Bradley effect" will have near zero to do with the outcome of the election. It will more than be counterbalanced by the number of African American voters that are single issue voters this election than have been in the past 10 presidential elections. Approximately 78-82% of African Americans have voted democrat in the those elections. This election the estimated support is between 92-94% of African Americans will be voting democrat. IMO those extra 14-18% of African American voters will far exceed any sort of "Bradley effect".
October 23, 200817 yr Read an interesting piece by Michael Barone who stated the Obama throughout the primaries always scored hugher on the exit polling than he did in actual vote percentages. I think the race is still favoring Obama, but I don't think it is the 9 point race we are seeing in some, and the IBD/TIPP poll has it within the margin of error. McCain has huge hill to cover in the Electoral College...obviously he is setting his hopes on PA. He can thank Dick Murtha for any push there.
October 23, 200817 yr It is quite likely that this election will be decided by which side turns out a bunch of unlikely voters.Likely "registered" via ACORN. :lol:
October 23, 200817 yr Author Did he endorse Obama? :laugh: That's what McCain ought to get him to do. It would definitely help McCain in the polls.
October 23, 200817 yr Author It is quite likely that this election will be decided by which side turns out a bunch of unlikely voters. That is very true. My guess is that Obama leads by closer to 5-6% right now. But again, that has no basis in fact, just my opinion.
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