October 23, 200818 yr http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27324419/?GT1=43001 The associated press poll shows that among likely voters, .... Barack Obama 44% John McCain 43% Very interesting.
October 23, 200818 yr It will be neck and neck down to the wire. Although I take much more stock in the electoral outlook than "global percentages" (see 2000).
October 23, 200818 yr http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27324419/?GT1=43001 The associated press poll shows that among likely voters, .... Barack Obama 44% John McCain 43% Very interesting. It is quite likely that this election will be decided by which side turns out a bunch of unlikely voters.
October 23, 200818 yr It is quite likely that this election will be decided by which side turns out a bunch of unlikely voters. It's just my instinct, so you can take it for what it's worth, but I think we're likely to see a "reverse-Bradley effect" where more voters turn out and vote for Obama than they are willing to admit to a pollster.
October 23, 200818 yr Did he endorse Obama? He will appear on the Lettermen show on Friday to reveal his endorsement.
October 23, 200818 yr ^ I wish I had your confidence. Well, with the economy being the dominating issue, and that issue favoring Obama in a similarly dominating manner, I think a lot of those in the center, who may be conservative on most issues (not the talk-radio types, but more disinterested followers) are likely to pull the trigger for Obama and hope he can do something different because they don't see it in McCain. Particularly when McCain hasn't given anyone a reason to trust his economic policies, or propose any, really. I think Obama has sufficiently projected himself as an intelligent leader whom voters can be comfortable with, which likely quelled a lot of their apprehensiveness. McCain has staked his campaign on Sarah Palin, who I think is a laughingstock, and Bill Ayers and it isn't moving any voters from the center. In sum, it's the economy, and I think it laps race and Bill Ayers this election - voters may not admit they'll do it, but once in the booth they pull the trigger for Obama, the opposite of the Bradley effect.
October 23, 200818 yr ^Sorry, but I don't see the logic in that one bit. I could have told everyone that before I wrote it.
October 23, 200818 yr If I understand the Bradley effect correctly, it seems to be something invented to say that people who are saying they would support Obama would actually pull the lever for McCain when push comes to shove. What's the logic behind that bogus claim? The thing everyone would point to is race. So what in the world is the logic of someone saying they are going to support McCain, and switching to Obama? If it's because of matters of the economy, there is no reason to not say they'll support Obama in the first place. Is that a response that meets your approval Habib?
October 23, 200818 yr If I understand the Bradley effect correctly, it seems to be something invented to say that people who are saying they would support Obama would actually pull the lever for McCain when push comes to shove. What's the logic behind that bogus claim? The thing everyone would point to is race. So what in the world is the logic of someone saying they are going to support McCain, and switching to Obama? If it's because of matters of the economy, there is no reason to not say they'll support Obama in the first place. The argument behind the Bradley-effect is that due to race a voter would tell a pollster they were voting for the black candidate because they feel as though they would be seen as racist if they didn't, then once in the booth they vote for the white candidate. Most Bradley-effect discussions point to two instances where a black candidate had a significantly strong lead in the polls but lost the election, thus this theory's inception. However, it's been well disputed, and shown to not be a factor this election as Obama outperformed quite a few polls in the primaries. Now, my contention is that some more conservative, albeit more middle-of-the-road voters may be too embarrassed to admit to voting for Obama to a pollster because he's a liberal candidate, but due to the state of the economy and the current President they vote for him anyway. Of course, I have no data to found my claims on, so, like I said it's my instinct derived from conversations with those conservative, middle-of-the-road types I mentioned, the way the economy has dominated the issues, McCain's inability to make any inroads with it, relying on Bill Ayers instead, and my experience following campaigns. Is that a response that meets your approval Habib? Look, I've read your posts so I can reasonably assume you disagree with everything I say, so quoting me to write that you disagree is redundant. String together a subject, verb, and a predicate and make an argument.
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