February 6, 200818 yr When you hear Sen. Obama rally the troops, its no wonder the younger voters flock to him. I've got a college-aged boy who is wanting to make his way and make a difference yet , like many his age, is not enthused about whathe sees as today's political landscape. His crowd then gets someone saying it can be different and its music to their ears.
February 6, 200818 yr HUGE, HUGE statement tonight on Fox. After tonight, Hillary will have received the most popular vote of any candidate on either side. #2??? Obama. Both Democrats will have received more popular vote than any of the Republican candidates. That does not bode well for the Republicans.
February 6, 200818 yr When you hear Sen. Obama rally the troops, its no wonder the younger voters flock to him. I've got a college-aged boy who is wanting to make his way and make a difference yet , like many his age, is not enthused about whathe sees as today's political landscape. His crowd then gets someone saying it can be different and its music to their ears. I was listening and said the exact same thing. He can give a speech and make you want to stand up and do something.
February 6, 200818 yr Karl Rove on Fox is predicting that McCain will come out with about 500 delegates from the 1000 tonight. Huckabee will be slightly over 200. Romney will be around 220 to 250. He says we could have a tight battle for 2nd place between Huckabee and Romney.
February 6, 200818 yr HUGE, HUGE statement tonight on Fox. After tonight, Hillary will have received the most popular vote of any candidate on either side. #2??? Obama. Both Democrats will have received more popular vote than any of the Republican candidates. That does not bode well for the Republicans. To add to this, Karl came up with some more interesting information. Votes cast tonight about 65% were cast in the Democrat elections, about 35% in the Republicans. 2 Democrat votes for every 1 Republican vote. Only in Utah and Georgia were there more Republican votes than Democrat votes. And a REAL INTERESTING TIDBIT on Obama. Obama's wins are coming in states that are red states generally in the general election. States that the Dems have minimal to zero chance of carrying in the general election. In fact, he rattled off Obama's wins minus Illinois and said in the last 7 Presidential election, the Dems had carried 2 of those states and only one time each. That where Obama is showing to be the strongest, the Dems have no chance of winning come November.
February 6, 200818 yr To add to this, Karl came up with some more interesting information. Votes cast tonight about 65% were cast in the Democrat elections, about 35% in the Republicans. 2 Democrat votes for every 1 Republican vote. Only in Utah and Georgia were there more Republican votes than Democrat votes. And a REAL INTERESTING TIDBIT on Obama. Obama's wins are coming in states that are red states generally in the general election. States that the Dems have minimal to zero chance of carrying in the general election. In fact, he rattled off Obama's wins minus Illinois and said in the last 7 Presidential election, the Dems had carried 2 of those states and only one time each. That where Obama is showing to be the strongest, the Dems have no chance of winning come November. Democrata have a good chance to win in states that have been red for a long time. The fact that turnout is way down in Republican primaries and way up in Democratic primaries is a reflection of the dissatisfaction of Republicans with their potential nominees. The mood of the electorate can change drastically between now and November and probably will. No state is absolutely safe for either party. Remember, Michael Dukakis built a pretty comfortable lead over George H. W. Bush.
February 6, 200818 yr To add to this, Karl came up with some more interesting information. Votes cast tonight about 65% were cast in the Democrat elections, about 35% in the Republicans. 2 Democrat votes for every 1 Republican vote. Only in Utah and Georgia were there more Republican votes than Democrat votes. And a REAL INTERESTING TIDBIT on Obama. Obama's wins are coming in states that are red states generally in the general election. States that the Dems have minimal to zero chance of carrying in the general election. In fact, he rattled off Obama's wins minus Illinois and said in the last 7 Presidential election, the Dems had carried 2 of those states and only one time each. That where Obama is showing to be the strongest, the Dems have no chance of winning come November. The same thing was said about McCain....Most of his states were ones that vote Democrat in the general election.
February 6, 200818 yr The same thing was said about McCain....Most of his states were ones that vote Democrat in the general election.McCain has benefited from Rudy's success in getting early blue state primaries scheduled. Rudy knew that he would need Democrats and independents to vote for him early to have a shot at the nomination. When he dropped out, McCain was there to pick up those votes. Romney and Huckabee have split most of the votes of people describing themselves as conservatives.
February 6, 200818 yr Democrata have a good chance to win in states that have been red for a long time. The fact that turnout is way down in Republican primaries and way up in Democratic primaries is a reflection of the dissatisfaction of Republicans with their potential nominees. The mood of the electorate can change drastically between now and November and probably will. No state is absolutely safe for either party. Remember, Michael Dukakis built a pretty comfortable lead over George H. W. Bush. Agreed with the post above until the last sentence. I don't remember Dukakis leading at all. Maybe a bump after the Convention but nowhere near in contention.
February 6, 200818 yr To add to this, Karl came up with some more interesting information. Votes cast tonight about 65% were cast in the Democrat elections, about 35% in the Republicans. 2 Democrat votes for every 1 Republican vote. Only in Utah and Georgia were there more Republican votes than Democrat votes. And a REAL INTERESTING TIDBIT on Obama. Obama's wins are coming in states that are red states generally in the general election. States that the Dems have minimal to zero chance of carrying in the general election. In fact, he rattled off Obama's wins minus Illinois and said in the last 7 Presidential election, the Dems had carried 2 of those states and only one time each. That where Obama is showing to be the strongest, the Dems have no chance of winning come November. I don't really buy that logic. The majority of the people voting for Clinton would switch to Obama in a general election. I think the difference in turnout is a bigger factor. If the Dems outvote the Republicans 2 to 1...
February 6, 200818 yr Agreed with the post above until the last sentence. I don't remember Dukakis leading at all. Maybe a bump after the Convention but nowhere near in contention.Polls taken in early 1988 showed GHWB had an uphill battle ahead of him. Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides LEAD: Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll. Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters. Even more interesting: Dukakis-Jackson Bid Beats Bush, Poll Says LEAD: A Democratic ticket led by Gov. Michael S. Dukakis of Massachusetts with the Rev. Jesse Jackson as his running mate would defeat Vice President Bush in a general election, a poll made public today showed.
February 6, 200818 yr That where Obama is showing to be the strongest, the Dems have no chance of winning come November. I don't buy this argument at all. Obama will carry most of the traditional dem states (NY, CA, northeast, IL). Here are some of my reasons for such: 1. voter turnout (huge year for democrat turnout) 2. African American votes (especially in the south) 3. Hispanic votes (CA, AZ, NM, TX)- Hillary gets those over Obama but he would get them over any Republican. i.e. immigration debate. would you vote for someone that wanted to deport you (or people like you) or reform the system. 4. Womens vote - most women will vote democrat. 5. Obama will keep the votes he has gotten & should get some of the youth vote across the aisle. 6. McCain moderate position will cause Republican turnouts to be normal or low.
February 6, 200818 yr I don't buy this argument at all. Obama will carry most of the traditional dem states (NY, CA, northeast, IL). Here are some of my reasons for such: 1. voter turnout (huge year for democrat turnout)I made that point, too 2. African American votes (especially in the south)You are right 3. Hispanic votes (CA, AZ, NM, TX)- Hillary gets those over Obama but he would get them over any Republican. i.e. immigration debate. would you vote for someone that wanted to deport you (or people like you) or reform the system.There is debate here as McCain's stance on immigration appeals to Hispanics. He could attract Hispanics who supported Bush over either of the Dem candidates. 4. Womens vote - most women will vote democrat.Most definitely a Democrat favorite. 5. Obama will keep the votes he has gotten & should get some of the youth vote across the aisle.Definitely the youth vote although interesting that a pundit said that Huckabee is winning the youth vote for the Republicans. They didn't give any stats to back that up but made the claim. 6. McCain moderate position will cause Republican turnouts to be normal or low.They said that this week, I believe, McCain will be speaking to a conservative conference of some sort in DC and it will be real interesting what promises McCain makes there to appeal to the conservatives. I think also it depends on two things: 1) If Hillary gets the nod on the Dem side as conservatives will come out to vote against her instead of for McCain. The exact thing that happened in the 2006 Congressional races where voters were voting more against Bush than for Democrats. 2) His running mate and whether they have a strong conservative appeal which then might turn off his moderate and independent supporters. My responses are in the red. It should be a real strategic and interesting race. Right now, it appears the Democrats have a strong advantage.
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