Ranking the Field

1. Warren Central
2. Bowling Green
3. Clinton County
4. Barren County
5. Russell County
6. Franklin-Simpson
7. Logan County
8. Glasgow

Game 1: Barren County (19-12) vs. Warren Central (23-6)
Series in 2024-25: Warren Central leads 1-0 (72-49 W on 1/7/25)
Series Overall: Warren Central leads 47-15 (5 straight wins, last loss in 2021)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Warren Central leads 8-1 (2 straight wins, last meeting in 2022)

This game is most likely the best matchup of the first round - in a statistical oddity, this is Barren's third straight year playing the opening game of the tournament.  Barren County fell by a lot in the first matchup between these teams in January, but battled well in the second half.  While Tate Spillman (11.3 PPG - 12 points in first matchup) is the co-leading scorer for Barren County, the Trojans found great success in that game when they went down low to Joshua Decker (11.3 PPG - 11 points in first matchup), and attacking inside will make sense, particularly if they can draw some fouls on Jarek Kirk (12.6 PPG - 10 points in first matchup).  Kirk's absence from the floor in the district final whenever it occurred was acutely felt, as while he isn't the leading scorer, he presents a significant matchup disadvantage due to his long wingspan.  Central will continue to rely on region player of the year Ant McAfee (20.2 PPG - 24 points in first matchup), whose scoring has slowed in the last month as teams have changed how they approach defending him.  Barren County will most likely be judicious about when they push pace, and will try to keep the tempo at a bit of a slowdown.  They don't score very much - averaging just over 58 PPG, and have won seven games this year scoring fewer than 60 points, and scored as few as 40 in a victory.  Warren Central will be the opposite in desire, though their scoring has come down, failing to reach 60 points themselves in six of their last eight. Central has won six of the last seven region tournaments, including the previous three, and is part of a history of struggle for Barren County against 14th District representatives - they are 2-22 all-time against teams from the district at region.  Neither team is likely particularly happy about this matchup, particularly knowing it is likely to be paired with a game against Clinton County in the semifinals.  Central is more vulnerable than they were going into February, likely to be without sophomore wing Armani Byrd (8.9 PPG - 9 points in first matchup) for the rest of the year with a knee injury, but will still be expected to carry the day here.  Their length remains a serious matchup problem, and the teams that give them the most trouble are the ones that can hit from outside - Barren County shoots just 29.8% from three.  Look for the Dragons to take this by 12-15 points.

Game 2: Clinton County (28-2) vs. Logan County (19-11)
Series in 2024-25: First Meeting
Series Overall (since 1997/98): Clinton County leads 4-2 (2 straight losses, last meeting in 2019, last win in 2011)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: First Meeting

This is not only the first meeting of the year between these two teams, it's their first meeting ever at the region tournament, as it is just the fourth time they've been in the same field.  Clinton County did not play any team in the 13th or 14th Districts this year, and Logan County didn't play anyone in the 16th District.  Unfamiliarity with styles may abound.  Clinton County has advanced to the region semis in three of the previous four tournaments they made, but this is their first appearance in three years.  They are having their best season by many metrics, and will be looking to set two achievements during this tournament - most wins in school history (30, in 1962), and first region title since 1960.  They've got some big hurdles to get to both of those, but the first game they'll be easily favored in. Clinton County allows less than 48 points a game, scoring just under 68 PPG.  They have four players from their typical six man rotation that score in double figures, led by Cannon Young (16.9 PPG).  He's joined by Jaxson Mason (14.2 PPG), William Beaty (12.1 PPG), and Nick Poore (11.0 PPG).  They'll grind you down with defense, but it's not as if they are not capable of scoring. The Bulldogs are 4-7 all-time against 13th District representatives at region, but won their previous matchup in 2020 (over Franklin-Simpson). Logan County will want to get them running, favoring a higher scoring affair.  The Cougars average just under 65 points per game, and allow around 58.  They didn't play a murderer's row of a schedule in February, but they have not lost to anyone other than Franklin-Simpson since January, and both of those losses were on the road.  The Cougars will go as far as Samson Hightower takes them, the only Cougar who averages double digits.  The senior averages 20.1 PPG, shooting 46.4% from the floor on 386 attempts.  Logan County is 5-1 all-time against 16th District representatives at region, with their only loss coming to Metcalfe County in 1985.  It's worth noting that Metcalfe County won the region that year.  Perhaps a positive indicator of what is to come for Clinton County.... This game strikes me as one that Clinton County should win, though I believe Logan County will give them a game.  The Cougars have the experience of playing at Diddle, making their second straight trip - Samson Hightower scored 25 points in their quarterfinal loss last year.  Neither team has beaten anyone particularly good, and they've rarely played anyone particularly good.  The team that settles in more quickly is likely the team that takes it.  My pick is Clinton County, because defense travels, and even if nerves cause issues early, defense rarely abandons you.  Clinton County by 9.

Game 3: Franklin-Simpson (11-13) vs. Russell County (17-11)
Series in 2024-25: First Meeting
Series Overall (since 1997/98): Franklin-Simpson leads 4-3 (Lost last meeting in 2018, last win in 2017)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Franklin-Simpson leads 2-1 (Lost last meeting in 2018)

Franklin-Simpson enters the region tournament on a "believe it or not" streak - their six game win streak is the longest current in the region, and represents more than half their total win total.  Three of those wins come against teams in the region field (two against Logan County and one against Glasgow).  Their last loss was a solid 61-54 loss to Barren County on the road, so there is reason to believe that Franklin can compete here.  However, the majority of their wins have come against teams that are frankly, not good.  Their wins over Logan County are the only two they have over a team with a winning record.  Franklin also enters the tournament with the fewest games played, finishing just 24 games to this point.  The Wildcats average just over 53 PPG, and are led by junior Jakai Partinger, who averages 12.8 PPG.  The team shoots just 40.1% from the field, with a 32.7% from outside - they only attempt 31% of all shots from three.  Franklin is into their first region tournament in two years, and has lost the last seven games they've played at region, dating back to a 2017 semifinal appearance.  Historically, they have great success against the 16th District - 17-5 all-time at region.  But two of those losses have come in this current stretch of losses, including one to their opponent Russell County.  For the Lakers, this is their first trip back to region since 2018, which was the last of their 13 consecutive appearances after joining the region.  This year is a return to form, as they have their first winning record since the 15/16 season.  They've been consistent this year while not running off any significant winning streaks - three is their maximum win streak of the year, but they also haven't lost more than two in a row either.  Still, this is their worst stretch since December, losing three of the last four.  The win was a true triumph, defeating Cumberland County for the first time this year, in overtime, on Cumberland's home floor, to punch their ticket to region.  They have the highest scoring average in the region, posting 71.39 PPG.  They want to get out and score.  The flip side is that they allow 65.96 PPG - one of the highest allowed in the region.  They'll play a high scoring game if you'll let them.  Seniors Owen Loy (16.6 PPG) and Mayes Gosser (16.6 PPG) lead the scoring attack, with Maddox Shearer (12.1 PPG) also in double figures.  They shoot very well from the floor, at 48.7% from the field and 36.7% from three.  They are a team you will definitely have to match on the perimeter.  The Lakers are a modest 8-13 all-time at region, but have advanced to the semis in seven of their 13 appearances.  How they respond to the new environment at Diddle will be critical, but they score well enough that they can come back.  This is a winnable game for Franklin, but Russell County is the pick - by 4.

Game 4: Bowling Green (25-6) vs. Glasgow (5-22)
Series in 2024-25: Bowling Green leads 1-0 (70-38 W on 12/13/24)
Series Overall (since 1929): Bowling Green leads 82-37 (12 straight wins, last loss in 2008)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Series tied 5-5 (Bowling Green won 2 straight, last meeting in 2016, last loss in 1985)

As with last year when Bowling Green opened with Russellville, there are years this would be a marquee game.  These two are among the most successful ever in this region, and rivals whose games stretch back almost 100 years.  My records only go back to the 1928/29 season for Bowling Green, but there Glasgow is on that schedule, a 21-14 barn burner.  But it's been a while since Glasgow has gotten Bowling Green, longer still since they did it away from home (2000), and longer still since doing it at region, allll the way back in 1985.  The Purples come in on a four game winning streak, and in many ways have looked like the best team in the region over the past month.  Their win over Central in the district final on a near buzzer beater three proved mammoth - it afforded them what I would term as the perfect draw.  Bowling Green averages 70.35 PPG, and only allows 55.16 PPG.  They scorch the nets, shooting 54.7% from the field and an incredible 46.7% from three.  That latter stat is nightmare fuel for opponents - Bowling Green wants to get to the rim, they're very good at it, but if they kick it for three, or you decide to zone, they'll just knock it down from outside.  Four Purples average scoring in double figures, led by Luke Idlett's 14.6 PPG.  Luke's three percentage has dropped a little, as he's now shooting a mere 59.6% from outside.... Joseph Hurt is the lone player with some size on the team, and averages 14.1 PPG and 5.2 rebounds.  Braylon Banks, the hero of the Warren Central game, averages 12.7 PPG and is joined by Jace Wardlow's 11.8 PPG among double figures.  The team is quick, they guard well, they press, and they're senior laden.  Height is really their only weakness, and it can put them behind the eightball when it comes to rebounding. Typically, that means their goal is just to make all the shots.  I've discussed it before but it bears repeating - they haven't lost a quarterfinal or semifinal at region since 2004 - 34 straight wins.  That's also the last time a team from outside their district beat them in a region tournament game.  They've made 11 straight region finals, the last miss being when they lost in the district semis in 2013.  And now they get a five win Glasgow team, playing the part of the Washington Generals.  The Scotties come in with an almost historically low win total for a region team - you have to go back to 2001 to find a team in this tournament that had fewer.  Of their five wins, only one came outside of district play, a 54-49 win over Russellville in December.  All four of the others came against Warren East and Allen County-Scottsville.  They advanced to the region semifinals last year for first time since 2012, and promptly fired their head coach.  They lost by 32 when they played Bowling Green back in December.  They only average 52 PPG and allow 65.67 PPG - they shoot only 42.3% from the field and 25.3% from three.  Two players average in double figures, those being senior Josiah Driver (11.5 PPG) and sophomore Jaylen Bradley (10.6 PPG).  The best player on the team is probably Jerrick Martin, who is just below double figures at 9.6 PPG and who missed the first 14 games of the year.  I don't want to be mean, but this would basically rank as the greatest upset in the history of the tournament if they won this game.  Purples win by roughly 35-40. 

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Bowling Green over Barren County by 25
Semifinal 2: Warren Central over Glasgow by 18
Finals: Bowling Green over Warren Central by 9

 

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Warren Central over Clinton County by 9
Semifinal 2: Bowling Green over Russell County by 20
Finals: Warren Central over Bowling Green by 3

I have painted a bit of a pessimistic picture for Clinton County making the finals here and in other places.  Make no mistake, I think they're a good team.  I think potentially they could beat Warren Central if given the right circumstances.  That would mean they were able to get hot from the floor, Central is off and in foul trouble - basically what Butler County did to them.  I just simply cannot predict it until it happens, because a lot of history tells me that it is extremely unlikely.  Central is deeper even without Byrd, they have great height, they have shooters, they have athleticism.  And Clinton County hasn't really seen their style at any point.  Bowling Green in the finals is a much easier pick.  It's been over a generation since they've made a region tournament and didn't reach the final, and this draw removed the only two teams I'd have viewed as capable of stopping them prior to that round - Barren County and Clinton County.  No one has beaten a 14th District team before the finals since 2017, and I'm sticking with the prediction that Warren Central and Bowling Green remain the two best teams in the region as they've been rated all year.  The finals, that's a true tossup. I think if Byrd were still in play, I'd feel better about Central.  The key for the Dragons is Kirk not getting in foul trouble again.  When he's on the floor, it appears very clear that Central is the better team.  His length and versatility forces Bowling Green to defend him differently, and allows other players more room to operate.  If Bowling Green is winning, it is because players like Banks continued to knock down shots, they continued to get after rebounds where they can, and maybe that someone else steps up that hasn't as much in the other games.  Carpenter gave them big points in the district finals, and Deuce had flashes where he looked more like the player that we thought would be player of the year.  Idlett is also one to watch - he's missed a lot of shots in their games this year, going just 5/17 from the floor. This is a guy who hits nearly 60% of his THREES let alone his total shots (60.8%).  He's had open looks that haven't gone. It could come in the final.  Still, I'm sticking with Central because at the end of the day, I think their length is a real matchup problem for Bowling Green.  But it's a coin toss, I might say a true 50/50 call.  If a 14th District team wins, it'll be the 24th consecutive region title for the district.

Another great piece of work Dragon!!! 

18 hours ago, DragonFire said:

Game 4: Bowling Green (25-6) vs. Glasgow (5-22)
Series in 2024-25: Bowling Green leads 1-0 (70-38 W on 12/13/24)
Series Overall (since 1929): Bowling Green leads 82-37 (12 straight wins, last loss in 2008)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Series tied 5-5 (Bowling Green won 2 straight, last meeting in 2016, last loss in 1985)

And now they get a five win Glasgow team, playing the part of the Washington Generals. 

 I don't want to be mean, but this would basically rank as the greatest upset in the history of the tournament if they won this game.  Purples win by roughly 35-40. 

 

The bolded made me laugh.  

I'm old enough to have seen the Generals (who half the people on this site don't even know who they are) play in Diddle Arena as a kid (against the great Curly Neal and Meadowlark Lemon no less!!!).  Great times!

You're about as fair as they come DF.

The WC/BG Final will be a real battle and one worthy of a Sweet 16 entrant!

Go Purples!

On 3/2/2025 at 2:21 PM, DragonFire said:

Four Purples average scoring in double figures, led by Luke Idlett's 14.6 PPG. Luke's three percentage has dropped a little, as he's now shooting a mere 59.6% from outside....

@DragonFire who do you like to win the Clinton County vs Barren County game on Monday?

@Purple88 I think Clinton County has to be the favorite there, despite winning by only two at home when they played. Barren County is highly unlikely to shoot that well again, and I think that’s what it would take. Clinton County surprised me with how aggressively they scored in their first game, and I don’t expect a repeat of that. But they look comfortable and hungry, they defend well, have good size, I think they should take this one by 7-10 points. 

2 hours ago, DragonFire said:

@Purple88 I think Clinton County has to be the favorite there, despite winning by only two at home when they played. Barren County is highly unlikely to shoot that well again, and I think that’s what it would take. Clinton County surprised me with how aggressively they scored in their first game, and I don’t expect a repeat of that. But they look comfortable and hungry, they defend well, have good size, I think they should take this one by 7-10 points. 

Is either team a viable threat to knock off Bowling Green? I know Barren County beat Warren Central, but the element of surprise would seem to be gone now.

On 3/14/2025 at 1:34 PM, gchs_uk9 said:

Is either team a viable threat to knock off Bowling Green? I know Barren County beat Warren Central, but the element of surprise would seem to be gone now.

Historical bias makes me say no.  It's hard for me to overcome that at this point.  I've cited it several times but it bears repeating - it has been 21 years since a 4th Region team outside of Warren Central or Greenwood has beaten Bowling Green in a postseason game, and it's been 17 since Greenwood has.  In other words, none of these kids have any memory of losing to a region team in the postseason other than Warren Central, and many on the team wasn't even alive the last time.  Bowling Green is a combined 20-0 against the three other teams in postseason play, with half of those wins coming against Barren County.  I have fully reached the point that I simply can't believe in these teams until they pull it off.

Now, with that said, I was impressed with Clinton County.  I think they have some tools to pull it off if things bounce right.  They have some good size, better size than what Bowling Green is rolling with.  They shoot 58% from two, converting at an extremely high rate, so getting inside, that's going to be key.  If they shoot from outside the way they did against Logan County, they'll be extremely hard to stop.  But they went 13/21 in that game, almost 30% higher than their season average.  That felt like an extreme outlier, one unlikely to reoccur.  I think if they allow themselves to lean on the three ball against Bowling Green, that will be a mistake.  A lot of what they do will come down to how well do they use their size, and how well do they handle the speed and pressure of Bowling Green. They simply haven't played that type of team.  Logan County gave them some pressure, and they handled it.  But Bowling Green is a different animal entirely.

That's not to slight Barren County, but I don't think they match up quite as well.  They do have Decker and Nunn, whose size seemed to give Central some trouble, but they don't really play through them primarily.  They're a terrible three point shooting team - I'm still baffled that they hit so many against Central, going 4/6 early (they went 3/15 after, but that early burst was enough to open things up and set the tone).  That doesn't leave a lot of avenues for Barren against Bowling Green.  They're extremely well coached, play fundamentals well, but they're going to have to hit outside shots again, get inside to Decker, and handle Bowling Green's pressure.  They did not do that well against Central, and were fortunate things had gotten away so much early that it didn't bury them.  I think Barren can make it look good against Bowling Green, but not win.  But it wouldn't surprise me if they beat Clinton County, who play their same pace.  I think Clinton County should try to speed them up and play with pace like they did against Logan County.

If anyone other than Bowling Green wins the tournament at this point, it would be basically as big an upset as Central losing in the first round.  These things simply don't happen.

40 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

 If they shoot from outside the way they did against Logan County, they'll be extremely hard to stop.  But they went 13/21 in that game, almost 30% higher than their season average.  That felt like an extreme outlier, one unlikely to reoccur.

A stat to expand on this that just occurred to me - almost 10% of all the threes Clinton County has hit this year came in that game against Logan County.  13 of 137 total makes on the year (9.4%). 

16 hours ago, DragonFire said:

A stat to expand on this that just occurred to me - almost 10% of all the threes Clinton County has hit this year came in that game against Logan County.  13 of 137 total makes on the year (9.4%). 

What? If I’m reading that correctly….. that’s insane! 

19 minutes ago, TheBarber said:

What? If I’m reading that correctly….. that’s insane! 

You’re reading correctly! Only 27.5% of attempts by the Bulldogs have been 3s, and they’ve only hit 32% of those attempts. They are not prolific from outside, but they were locked in against Logan County, hitting 13 of the 137 threes they’ve hit this year in that game.

There are two individual players in the state who have made more threes this year than Clinton County’s entire team.  

Looking forward to the 2 semi-final games tonight!

Below is a good article on the first semi-final game between Clinton Co and Barren County:

Building on Momentum - Sporting Times

 

If you'd like to watch the games, you can do so here:

Live - Sporting Times

 

Sporting Times is such a valuable resource in and around the 4th Region!

Go Purples!