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Ashland vs. Johnson Central Predictions/Updates

Ashland vs. Johnson Central 24 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • Ashland
      37%
      9
    • Johnson Central
      62%
      15

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Both teams have fended off three improved programs in Boyd, Greenup, and Rowan this season and will again be competing for a district championship. From 2005 - 2024, the only years these two teams were not in the same district was 2019 - 2022. Other than those seasons, with the exception of 2007 when Ashland went 2-8 they have competed for a district championship 14 times out of 15 those seasons where Johnson Central emerged victorious in 11 of the 14 matchups while also winning all four times (06, 16, 17, 18) the teams met in the playoffs. While Ashland has put together teams with a lot of speed, they have struggled at times against teams like Johnson Central that boast a power running game. Last season the two teams met in an offensive battle (Or a defensive struggle, depending on how you look at it) where Johnson Central would win the district championship 33-36.

This season Ashland comes in with one loss, 26-10 to Ohio power Harvest Prep who has reached the state semifinals four times in the past decade. That game marks the only time to this point over the past two seasons (20 games) where Ashland has been held below 28 points and they have averaged 50.6 points per game over the last five games. LaBryant Strader continues his impressive accuracy, completing 67% of his passes while throwing for 15 touchdowns. Ashland will spread the ball around as Sam Lyons, Cam Davis, and Braxton Jennings have 23, 21, and 20 receptions respectively. Braxton Jennings leads the rushing attack with 524 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns. The next three rushers are LaBryant Strader, Cam Davis, and Maverick Ashby who have a combined 49, 46, and 44 carries respectively. Defensively, Ashland ranks #8 against the run allowing 98 yards per game (Although Harvest Prep is the only team they encountered that plays more of the power running style Johnson Central does) and they rank 7th in pass defense. Ashland certainly has the speed to make plays on both ends, although the lines have been a question mark at times.

Johnson Central comes in ranked #1 in 4A in rushing, averaging 422 yards per game. While I am yet to see their stat totals from Greenup, they are on pace to run for 5,486 yards should they play 13 games like last season when they ran for 4,164. The big difference is having key player Zack McCoart back, who was hurt last year. Zack nearly has 2,000 yards on the season and (not counting the first game in which he was injured last season) has scored a touchdown in every single game but three he has played in going back to his freshman season when he led a state finalist Johnson Central team in rushing. After scoring only 14 points against a tough Madison Central team in their first game, Johnson Central has not scored less than 37 since, including a 67 point game against Greenup County this week. Defensively, they are ranked 34th in 4A in passing allowing 178 yards per game but have played some strong quarterbacks like Kade Elam, Chase Varney, and Rhett Holbrook in that stretch. Against the run Johnson Central has been in the middle of the pack in 4A, allowing nearly 125 rushing yards per game. One area that is a major strength for both teams is that Ashland ranks #5 in sacks in 4A and Johnson Central #6, but that has to favor Johnson Central more since they have only thrown the ball 23 times going into the Greenup County game compared to Ashland having thrown 109 times. Johnson Central also leads 4A in fumbles forced along with John Hardin, having forced 10 on the season.

This game features two football programs that have differing styles of play. Ashland will run more of a spread offense while Johnson Central is known for running the wishbone. Last season the game was decided by three points and it's shaping up to be a great one this year! What are your thoughts on the game?

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  • Ashland 80 Central 54

  • Notable matchups in series history. Johnson Central leads the series 17-7. 1975: Ashland wins 47-14 in the first matchup between the two schools after Johnson Central, a consolidation of four

  • DevilMayCare
    DevilMayCare

    Ashland Tomcats (7-1, 4A #6) | Johnson Central Golden Eagles (7-2, 4A #7) ? Why The Rush? Tomcats Stiffen Their Back For JC Ground And Pound • Ashland has struggled mightily over the years t

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Ashland 80

Central 54

Well it is that time of year this is the final game for Johnson Central and the district championship game. Johnson Central is 7-2 coming off of the Greenup County win 67-42. Ashland is 7-1 with a loss to an Ohio team Ashland beat Greenup County 51-12 earlier in the season. I believe that Johnson Central will not be stopped on the ground but the defense will be the deciding factor.

I’ll take Ashland. I just enjoy watching Jennings play ball.

Here’s an intelligent statement; the team that punts the least will win this ball game. Johnson County’s old school offense is just more consistent. I don’t see them punting a lot. The Tomcats will have to depend on mistakes by the Eagles and I don’t think there will be enough of those. Long sustained drives will keep the potent Tomcat offense off the field with the Eagle defense resting on the sidelines. The Tomcats may be the more complete team but a power run game is their Kryptonite. The Eagles win by a score or two. 

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Ashland Tomcats (7-1, 4A #6) | Johnson Central Golden Eagles (7-2, 4A #7)

? Why The Rush? Tomcats Stiffen Their Back For JC Ground And Pound

• Ashland has struggled mightily over the years to slow the Golden Eagle rushing machine. They're hardly unique in that regard, but the Tomcats have been victimized by JC’s “bully ball” more than anyone over the last decade. In the last ten meetings, Ashland has only succeeded in disrupting JC’s forward momentum once, when they held them to 122 yards on 32 rushes all the way back in 2015. The other nine encounters have yielded the Golden Eagles an average output of 381 yards rushing on 8 per carry. McCoart is licking his chops.

• The Tomcats have a ✨️Golden✨️ opportunity with the game being at Putnam Stadium. The only two times they've beaten Johnson Central in the last eighteen meetings occurred in the comfort of home. The Golden Eagle faithful probably think Ashland is dreaming if they believe they'll win this week, but the Tomcats are scheming for a 'Nightmare on Elm Street'.

Series History ?: JC leads 17-7 all-time, including last year's 36-33 win in Paintsville 

*For those not in the know, Elm Street is a road that runs adjacent to Putnam Stadium. 

 

  • Author

Notable matchups in series history. Johnson Central leads the series 17-7.

  • 1975: Ashland wins 47-14 in the first matchup between the two schools after Johnson Central, a consolidation of four schools, opened up in 1968. Ashland, behind their "Jaws" defense, would win the 1975 at-large state championship.
  • 1986: Johnson Central would defeat Ashland 18-14. This was against a young Ashland team that finished 1-9 but had many players that would be a key part of their state semifinal team two seasons later that would play a classic against Covington Catholic in a 6-0 loss in overtime.
  • 1998: Ashland would win 26-20 in a tight matchup at Putnam Stadium. I know little of this matchup but it's in a year that the two teams weren't in the same district. Ashland would go 7-4 with a 36-32 loss to Greenup County determining the district champion.
  • 2005: The first year Johnson Central and Ashland played in the same district. In a muddy game at Putnam Stadium, Ashland would build a 13-3 lead holding 2,000+ yard rusher Ron Blume in the negatives UNTIL the fourth quarter when Coach Matney adjusted his formations. Ron Blume would run for a long touchdown to cut the lead to 13-10 and after Ashland unsuccessfully tried to run the clock out JC would get the ball back, with Blume breaking another one loose and Drew McDavid shoving him out of bounds at the 10 yard line. After a couple more plays JC would go for a field goal that they thought was good but it was ruled missed - which secured the district championship for Ashland and ignited the rivalry. Both teams were expected to meet again in the regional final, but Madison Southern upset Johnson Central in the first round and Rockcastle would defeat Ashland in the second.
  • 2006: Johnson Central would get their revenge 35-7 in the regular season, but after a rule change the KHSAA re-aligned the playoffs to where teams would play through their districts. In the second round Johnson Central would win this battle 28-21 on a reverse pass in the final seconds of the game. Interestingly, Ashland almost completely shut down the Johnson Central running game led by superstar back Shawn Grimm. Three of Johnson Central's touchdowns game through the air and the first was on a recovered fumble in Ashland's end zone. Johnson Central had a big goal line stand early and Ashland also turned the ball over up 21-14 in Johnson Central territory. 
  • 2007: Johnson Central would win 67-33 in the highest scoring game in the series, a game in which the score was 20-14 halfway through the first quarter.
  • 2009: First off, before I go into this one note that Ashland did not use a kicker this season and went for two point conversions, so Johnson Central played along. Johnson Central came in as huge underdogs to an Ashland team that was undefeated but also injury-plagued. After going up 8-0, Johnson Central would recover an onside kick to score again and go up 16-0. The lead would be 22-6 at half before Ashland would go on a 22-0 run to take the lead at 28-22. Most of Johnson Central's scoring came on big plays - EXCEPT on their last drive which was consistent. With a 4th and goal from around the 15 yard line, backup QB Ross Sanor came in and threw a fade to starting QB J.K. Hall, who caught it barely hanging one foot in bounds. It was a great catch that I happened to have a great view of, like if Hall caught that two inches away he would have been out of bounds. Instead of going for two, Johnson Central would attempt the extra point to go ahead 29-28. Ashland had the ball with two minutes left, although they were out of timeouts and would be stopped on downs.
  • 2011: Ashland defeats JC for the first time since 2005 to win the district 22-6. Star back J.J. Jude who finished with over 3,000 rushing yards on the season, was held to 83 yards.
  • 2012: A great back and forth battle for the district championship. Missing Quinton Baker really hurt Ashland. Johnson Central did a great job controlling the clock and the game would go to overtime. Ashland would score first and get an extra point to take a 21-14 lead. Johnson Central would score on 4th and goal from around the 20 yard line on a pass and would win on a run for 2.
  • 2015: Mentioned in the prior post, the score was 0-0 at half. To start the second Quinton Baker carried the ball out of the backfield for Ashland. A couple of Johnson Central defenders tackled him, yet he would somehow land on his feet and run it the distance to put Ashland ahead 7-0. Johnson Central responded strongly and rifled a pass downfield to Geordan Blanton, who got the ball to the 1 and JC would score. JC would go for 2 and convert to go up 8-7. The teams would trade possessions the rest of the way with Ashland moving the ball and sometimes threatening, but they would miss a last chance to win the game with the ball on the Johnson Central 35.
  • 2016: Johnson Central would win 51-0 in the regional finals - the first of three straight games they would shut out their opponents by a combined score of 150-0 on the way to Jim Matney's first state championship.
  • 2017: Ashland wins 21-18 at home to win the district title. Johnson Central had nearly 500 yards of offense compared to around 300 for Ashland but turned the ball over multiple times and a missed extra point early threw them off. Ashland had the ball late in the game around midfield and on 4th and 3, ran a play action fake and threw deep to Aroq Coburn who scored as he would have nearly 150 yards receiving for the game. That put Ashland up 21-18 and Johnson Central would drive to the Ashland 20 but run out of time. During the game Johnson Central would keep trying to run a toss play but fumbled the pitch almost every time they tried it. The two teams would meet again in the regional final and this time Johnson Central would not repeat their mistakes on the pitch, utilizing that to defeat Ashland 54-27 (In a game much closer than the final score showed) in the second of three consecutive regional final meetings.
  • 2023: After a 5 year hiatus of the series (although the teams scrimmaged in 2021) the two teams didn't disappoint in their first match since 2018 where Johnson Central would control the clock and run the ball 70 times in the game and win 36-33. Ashland scored with several big plays. Starting the second half Ashland would receive the ball trailing 20-19 in a game they never led in. An onside kick was called by Johnson Central that they would recover which caught Ashland off guard. in the fourth quarter Logan Music, who was expected to return from injury, played and picked up 63 yards on 9 carries, including a touchdown run late against the worn out Ashland defense to seal the district championship victory.
11 hours ago, TCR said:
  • 2015: Mentioned in the prior post, the score was 0-0 at half. To start the second Quinton Baker carried the ball out of the backfield for Ashland. A couple of Johnson Central defenders tackled him, yet he would somehow land on his feet and run it the distance to put Ashland ahead 7-0. Johnson Central responded strongly and rifled a pass downfield to Geordan Blanton, who got the ball to the 1 and JC would score. JC would go for 2 and convert to go up 8-7. The teams would trade possessions the rest of the way with Ashland moving the ball and sometimes threatening, but they would miss a last chance to win the game with the ball on the Johnson Central 35.

I went to this game. One of the hardest hitting games I've seen in years. It was an absolute war all night long.

  • Author
2 hours ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I went to this game. One of the hardest hitting games I've seen in years. It was an absolute war all night long.

It was a wild atmosphere and maybe the highest attended game since Putnam Stadium re-opened in 2014. That place was packed end to end, there was hardly any breathing room for the crowd.

Johnson Central had a great line as usual. Ashland had, on their end, one of the best lines they had in years and arguably a more talented overall team than even the 2020 state championship team. @DevilMayCare pulled out the statistic of Ashland holding Johnson Central to 122 rushing yards that night. In that game Ashland's linebackers came out in a completely different alignment from what they normally did. Division I prospect Drew O'Bryan shot through on the first play and hit the Johnson Central running back right when he touched the ball, forcing a fumble that Ashland recovered which set the tone for the game. Ashland would drive to the goal line but the Johnson Central defense held. Ashland actually ran for 300 yards on the night and the Johnson Central defense bent but didn't break. Like you mentioned, there were a lot of jarring hits on both sides that night.

It's going to fun atmosphere Friday night and a hard fought game. Can't wait to see it!

44 minutes ago, TCR said:

It was a wild atmosphere and maybe the highest attended game since Putnam Stadium re-opened in 2014. That place was packed end to end, there was hardly any breathing room for the crowd.

Johnson Central had a great line as usual. Ashland had, on their end, one of the best lines they had in years and arguably a more talented overall team than even the 2020 state championship team. @DevilMayCare pulled out the statistic of Ashland holding Johnson Central to 122 rushing yards that night. In that game Ashland's linebackers came out in a completely different alignment from what they normally did. Division I prospect Drew O'Bryan shot through on the first play and hit the Johnson Central running back right when he touched the ball, forcing a fumble that Ashland recovered which set the tone for the game. Ashland would drive to the goal line but the Johnson Central defense held. Ashland actually ran for 300 yards on the night and the Johnson Central defense bent but didn't break. Like you mentioned, there were a lot of jarring hits on both sides that night.

It's going to fun atmosphere Friday night and a hard fought game. Can't wait to see it!

That was a very good Ashland team, whose season came unraveled down the stretch.

They had the size and physicality to negate the advantage JC usually holds over them. That's rarely the case. They'll be undersized again this year at the point of attack, but almost certainly the quicker team. Most of the time, I'll side with quickness over size, but JC can be explosive off the snap and the bone comes at you fast. It's just a bad matchup for the Tomcats, historically. 

If Ashland wins this week, I think it has to be a track meet, which they're definitely built for.

  • Author

Watch live and for free! Pregame tailgate show then the game.

 

 

Just now, MorrowManiac said:

JC 42

Ashland 28

*prediction*

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