Ranking the Field

1. Warren Central
2. Bowling Green
3. Warren East
4. Franklin-Simpson
5. Barren County
6. Todd County Central
7. Metcalfe County
8. Monroe County

Game 1: Metcalfe County (13-18) vs. Barren County (20-12)
Series in 2022-23: Barren County leads 1-0 (58-50 W on 2/14/23)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Barren County leads 2-0 (last meeting in 2008)

Heading into the district tournament, there was not much reason to be confident in Metcalfe County.  The Hornets had lost five in a row since winning in overtime over district rival Cumberland County, and were heading into the meat grinder of the most wide open district tournament in the region.  But two key factors were in their favor - they had the #1 seed and thus the luxury of being fresh while Cumberland County played on two consecutive days, and the tournament on their home court.  Those factors helped pull them through as they turned in their best efforts in months, winning the district title with a not as close as it appears 71-66 result over Monroe County, four days after ensuring a return to the region tournament with a 12 point win over Cumberland County.  There wasn't really a "good" draw that Metcalfe could have gotten, but they did end up with the lowest ranked of the three district runners-up they could play, albeit one that is a 20 game winner.  The Hornets will be seeking their first win in the region tournament since 2006.  They'll look to their big two of Jax Allen and Wyatt Blythe to help lift them.  Blythe had 17 in the victory over Cumberland County, with Allen dropping in 13 as well.  The two combine for an average of 37 PPG, more than half of Metcalfe's 62.2 PPG scoring average.  They'll take on a Barren County team that is in the midst of a poor stretch, having lost four of seven games.  Three of those losses came to teams above them in the field rankings - a 9 point home loss to BG, 4 point home loss to Franklin-Simpson, and their one point loss to Warren East on the road in the district finals.  The Trojans have failed to score over 58 points in all but one game since the start of February, though their defense has performed well, allowing over 60 points only once in their last 12 games.  Barren County was one of the big winners of the draw, staying on the opposite side of Warren Central and drawing the lowest ranked of the district champions.  If not for the presence of Bowling Green, they'd be a solid favorite to advance to the region finals.  Despite the loss to Warren East, the Trojans got a very strong performance from sophomore Tate Spillman, who dropped in 21 points in the game.  That's the type of unexpected effort that they will need to advance beyond this game.  With these teams having met such a short time ago, we have a solid read on how this one might go.  Barren County won that matchup 58-50 at home, led by Carson Beckham's 18 points, with Spillman and Aiden Miller contributing 11.  Leading scorer Eli Brooks did not play in that matchup, which gives every reason to be confident that Barren County would advance, as the result of that game and the records of these teams would imply.  Barren County should advance to the 4th Region semifinals for the third straight year.

Game 2: Todd County Central (19-11) vs. Bowling Green (24-8)
Series in 2022-23: Bowling Green leads 1-0 (54-48 W on 12/2/22)
Series Overall: Bowling Green leads 40-15 (12 straight wins, last loss in 2002)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Bowling Green leads 5-1 (5 straight wins, last meeting in 2018)

After not appearing in a region tournament for a 15 year span from 2003-2018, the Rebels are now in back to back tourneys and three in six years, plus a district title in tow.  Todd Central has won four in a row entering the region tournament, and six of seven.  They are seeking two things that are pretty rare for the program - a win in the region tournament, and a second consecutive 20+ win season.  They have only one win in the region tournament in the past 20 years - that coming in 2018.  And they've had back to back 20+ win seasons only once since joining the region in the early 1980s - in 2001 & 2002, the latter year they went to the region finals.  Their district final win over Franklin-Simpson wasn't necessarily the most shocking for the team - after all they lost to the Wildcats on the road by 1 point earlier in the year, though they did lose by 12 at home in late January.  But the dominance they displayed was surprising.  The Rebels had full control of the game throughout, leading by 8 at the half, and after briefly letting Franklin get within 6 during the 4th, they had a huge finishing kick and kept their composure as Franklin melted down, taking home a 61-43 victory.  The Rebels have three players averaging over double figures, led by Jamison Glass's 19 PPG, with Trayvon Foster (13.2 PPG) and Preston Rager (11.6 PPG) joining him.  Glass will be key for the Rebels, as he is a pure post player, where he will be expected to match up with Mason Ritter, arguably the best big man in the region.  Glass is lacking in heft, so this will be a difficult assignment.  If he, and the Rebels, can force Bowling Green to shoot more from mid-range and three, then perhaps they can make this game a question mark.  Drawing Bowling Green was the worst that Todd Central could have gotten.  On the flip side, the draw was so-so for Bowling Green, but they'll scarcely be worried.  The Purples have made the region finals of every single region tournament they've made from 2008 on.  Only 2013's district semifinal loss to Warren Central breaks their region final streak.  That's nine straight region finals, 14 of 15 years.  In other words, despite the fact Bowling Green lacks a senior on the team, they have more than enough experience in the program and culture to expect to continue to move on.  The Purples have lost 3 of 4 and 4 of 7 coming into the game, but all of those losses were to teams ranked in BGP's top 15, including two against #1 Warren Central.  Of Bowling Green's eight losses overall, only a 63-59 loss to Owensboro Catholic in December is to a team not ranked in the BGP Top 15.  They're battle tested.  One extremely positive development for the Purples during the district tournament was the play of big man Mason Ritter.  Ritter, who averages 12.5 PPG, dropped in 26 points in a win over South Warren and added 15 in the loss to Warren Central.  Ritter will have the height advantage on everyone they play, the best post in the region.  When he's on, Bowling Green becomes extremely tough to defend.  Guards MJ Wardlow (16.8 PPG) and Deuce Bailey (11.0 PPG) should find more room to operate if that continues, as teams will have to commit more bodies to dealing with Ritter.  Both teams average over 60 PPG, so a higher scoring game should be expected.  Any game with pace that isn't against Warren Central should benefit the Purples.  Look for them to settle in for a double digit victory and advance. 

Game 3: Warren Central (29-1) vs. Franklin-Simpson (17-10)
Series in 2022-23: Warren Central leads 1-0 (71-43 W on 12/13/22)
Series Overall: Franklin-Simpson leads 50-47 (WC 5 straight wins, last loss in 2017)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Warren Central leads 5-1 (5 straight wins, last meeting in 2016)

Warren Central has pretty high standards for themselves, the type of thing that gets established when you are on a 20 game win streak and have won 46 of your last 48 games.  So when they have games where they merely win by 8-9 points, or are pushed into the 4th Quarter, it feels like a bit of a lull.  But the last five games, it is clear that the lights are on.  The Dragons' lowest score of the last five games is 76. Their highest allowed is 63, and three of the five games they've held opponents under 50 points. The team looks hungry, and they are nearing their ultimate goals for the team.  They've already clinched the best season win percentage in team history, breaking a record set just last year.  If they win the region tournament - naturally one of their goals - they'll set a team record for wins in a season.  And as the #1 team in the state for almost the entire season, the goal of a state title is coming more into focus.  All five Dragon starters were named to the all-district team, as they were each named to one of the all-region teams (1st, 2nd, and 3rd).  Each averages 9.4 PPG or more, led by POY Chappelle Whitney's 16.6 PPG.  The Dragons look every bit the favorite, they score, they pass well, they defend well.  Their margin of victory leads the state.  If there's any weakness they have, it's that they go really only seven deep. Fouls and/or injuries could leave them vulnerable.  Their opponent comes in on a downbeat.  Franklin-Simpson had one of their worst games of the year in their loss to Todd County Central, managing only 43 points in a 61-43 loss, their second lowest score of the year.  That snapped a 13 game win streak over Todd Central, and worse, the Wildcats came unraveled, being assessed with three technical fouls during the loss.  That is a black mark on an otherwise solid finish to the year for the Wildcats, who had entered that game winners of nine of 12.  Franklin has one of the most consolidated scoring groups of any team in the region, with three players combining for 42.2 PPG out of a team average of 54.7.  Jalen Briscoe (17.0 PPG) leads the way, with DeMarcus Hogan (14.8 PPG) and Gabe Jones (10.4 PPG) joining him in that group.  Briscoe is almost exclusively a paint to mid-range scorer, with Gabe Jones more of a primary threat from the outside, and Hogan more of a score from all areas player.  Briscoe did not participate in the first matchup between the two teams, which contributed to the mere 43 points the Wildcats scored.  Gabe Jones led the Wildcats in that game with 14 points, hitting four of the nine made Franklin threes.  They'll likely need that type of outside performance again, while also getting the boost from Briscoe.  They'll have to find a way to hold Warren Central well below their usual scoring - the Dragons have won 40 consecutive games when they top 60 points.  The Wildcats are 1-9 in the region tournament under head coach Dee Spencer, and they're 2-20 all-time when matching up with a team from the 14th District - losing 14 in a row.  They've got an uphill battle ahead of him.  Look for Warren Central to roll.

Game 4: Warren East (20-9) vs. Monroe County (18-14)
Series in 2022-23: Monroe County leads 1-0 (84-72 W on 2/16/23)
Series Overall: Monroe County leads 17-10 (East last win in 2012)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Warren East leads 1-0 (1988)

Welcome back to the show Warren East! When the Raiders last were in the region tournament in 1997, the price of gas was about $1.20 and Wannabe by the Spice Girls had recently unseated Toni Braxton's Un-Break My Heart at #1 on the Billboard chart.  It's been a minute.  And as if that wasn't enough, their win over Barren County in the district finals on Friday, giving the Raiders their 12th district title in program history, was their first since 1989 (Debbie Gibson's Lost In Your Eyes topped the charts - ask your parents kids).  The Raiders reached the 20 win plateau for the first time in ten years, and they have the look of a team that is playing their best ball of the year.  The Raiders are 14-3 since the calendar turned to 2023, and their loss to Monroe County can be somewhat waved away due to missing two players out of their rotation in Kaleb Prince and Roger Duncan.  They have definitely still been tested - they won their games in the 15th District tournament by a total of three points.  They were up by much more against Glasgow but had to survive a late push - the game was always nip and tuck against Barren County, and in doubt until star Isaiah Andrews got a block on a Barren County potential game winner as time was expiring.  No team is as reliant on a single player as Warren East is on Andrews.  He averaged 23.7 PPG - he is the only Raider averaging more than 8 points per game.  It's almost unfathomable that Andrews could be totally stopped, but if he was, the Raiders likely have zero chance at winning.  One of the most striking things from their loss to Monroe County was that they allowed 84 points, which equaled their worst defensive output of the year.  Regardless of who was on the floor, that is alarming.  That should help them lock in during this game, as if they didn't have enough incentive already after 26 years away from the tournament.  Monroe County also ended a region tournament appearance drought, although a far more modest 5 years.  Like the Raiders, the Falcons were helped this year by a shift in districts.  While East moved into the 15th from the 14th, Monroe shifted from the 15th to the 16th, their home for the first 20 years of competition for the school.  When the Falcons made that move, they'd appeared in six straight region tournaments.  They only made the region tournament six times total in the 17 seasons they competed in the 15th District.  They started the season on fire, winning their first five district games, but faltered down the stretch, falling to the #2 seed, and ultimately falling on the road to Metcalfe County in the 16th District final.  But despite going 5-8 in their last 13 games - with one of those wins coming over a home school group - the Falcons have reached Diddle Arena and their shot at a region title.  Monroe is just one win shy of equaling their total for the last three seasons combined.  he Falcons have five players who average 8.1 PPG or more, led by John Harlin at 14.5 PPG and Austen Arnett with 11.7 PPG.  In their win over Warren East, the Falcons shot 57.7% from the field and did almost all their damage from inside the arc and at the foul line.  They went just 1/6 from three in that game, representative of how the team typically approaches their shooting.  They were 23/34 from the line.  Their best path to a win here is to slow Andrews but to keep anyone else from rising up to join him in scoring.  Other than that, follow the blueprint from their last win - get inside, get to the line, don't risk the three point shots that they don't hit that well anyway.  With neither team possessing any experience, it is tough to predict with any certainty the winner here, and the recent result is certainly a wild card, but the expectation should be a Raider win between 6-12 points.

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Bowling Green over Barren County by 7
Semifinal 2: Warren Central over Warren East by 23
Finals: Warren Central over Bowling Green by 12

It almost has to be Bowling Green and Warren Central in the finals again, doesn't it? Bowling Green just flat out doesn't lose to teams outside the 14th District - it's been 19 years since they did, and they've won thirty straight games in the region quarterfinal and semifinal rounds.  And this Warren Central team is the proverbial 800 pound gorilla, a force of nature.  Central didn't get the friendliest draw they could have, but they have a history of dominating Franklin-Simpson in the tournament, a history of dominating Warren East anywhere, and Monroe County doesn't feel remotely on the level.  If it is Bowling Green and Warren Central, it will be the fifth time those teams will meet in a region final in the last six years, and tenth in 14 years.  Bowling Green is the most likely team out of any Warren Central would potentially see before the state semifinals to knock them out, and I would expect if the Purples can pull it off that they'd likewise be in the state semifinals, and see what happens.  This might also be the last mammoth final between the teams for a while, as the Dragons graduate a huge portion of their team and Bowling Green has an extremely young and talented core that should keep them up top for years to come.  If it is those teams, I highly recommend tuning in to watch.  And if it is one of them cutting down the nets, it will be the 22nd consecutive region title for a team from the 14th District.

I appreciate all the hard work and thoughtfulness that went into this. It should be getting more than just one reaction. Thank you. Nice job.

6 hours ago, Basketball Jones said:

I appreciate all the hard work and thoughtfulness that went into this. It should be getting more than just one reaction. Thank you. Nice job.

I’m with you Jones, wonderful write up and great analysis of each team and what to expect from each. Great work DragonFire

Great work here!!

This is a great preview! I wish you had more 4th Region followers than it seems there are. You deserve a lot more attention than you get.

Happened to tune into the Metcalfe/Barren game just a few minutes ago thanks to the livestream, and it looks like Metcalfe County is trying to pull off the upset! Blythe from MC is the real deal.

While the first two games went as predicted (wins by Barren County and Bowling Green), it is worth noting that this is the first time since 2009 that the district runners-up won each of the first two games of the tournament.  That year is notable as Warren Central entered it as a strong favorite, only to take a first round upset.  Could it be an omen?
 

No, likely not.  I don't know that we'll truly know confirmation until we see who comes out for warmups/intro tomorrow, but I have heard that Franklin-Simpson will be without two players due to events that transpired during and after their district final against Todd County Central, including second leading scorer DeMarcus Hogan.  As I noted in the preview, Franklin-Simpson has one of the narrowest scoring trees in the region, and now Hogan's 14.8 PPG are unavailable to them.  They were already an extreme underdog - this now becomes an extreme David and Goliath situation.

On 2/25/2023 at 6:35 PM, DragonFire said:

Welcome back to the show Warren East! When the Raiders last were in the region tournament in 1997, the price of gas was about $1.20 and Wannabe by the Spice Girls had recently unseated Toni Braxton's Un-Break My Heart at #1 on the Billboard chart.  It's been a minute.

Unbreak My Heart was such a good song. Loved some Toni Braxton!

Oh, and good preview as well!

Bowling Green/Warren Central feels inevitable as usual. The stats @DragonFire is able to dig up is truly remarkable and his previews are always top-notch work.  Todd County took an early 5-2 lead but the Purples managed to get up 9 at the end of the first quarter.  They would use a 10-0 run to stretch the lead to 26-9 in the second and never looked back.  They would push the margin to 27 points in the fourth quarter before eventually running out to a 66-41 win.  Four Purples got into double figures in scoring and shot 56% from the field which was a welcome sign.  They will need balance of scoring to try and match Centrals prolific starting 5 in the final. If the rumors of Franklin being without a few players are true, tonight's game could get out of hand in a hurry. 

The best preview on the board!  Thank you DragonFire!

Some notes for tonight:

-No 14th District team has lost a region tournament game to anyone outside the 14th District since 2017 - that is 24 consecutive wins.  
-14th District representatives have won 9 in a row and 26 of 27 games against teams representing the 15th District.  Both matchups tonight pit 14th District teams against 15th District teams.  Barren County's 58-53 win over Warren Central in 2016 is the lone exception.
-If both Bowling Green and Warren Central win, it will be the sixth consecutive region final to pit two teams from the 14th District against each other, with five of those being Bowling Green vs. Warren Central. There have been 14 all-14th District region finals in the last 20 season.
-If both Barren County and Warren East win, it will be the second all-15th District region final since the Bowling Green area teams aligned into the 4th Region in 1966, and first since Allen County-Scottsville defeated Barren County 53-51 in the 1996 region finals.
 

-Bowling Green is seeking an appearance in the region title game for the tenth consecutive season, and it would be their 15th appearance in the last 16 years.
-Bowling Green has won 16 consecutive region semifinal games.  They lost lost in the semifinal round in 2001 - to eventual champion Russellville.
-Their average margin of victory in those 16 straight wins is 12.125 points, but the last six they won by 19.33 PPG.  
-Bowling Green has never lost a postseason game to Barren County.  They are 9-0 against the Trojans, though they have not met since 2017.  They did lose to Park city in the 1963 Region QF, one of the schools that consolidated to form Barren County.
-Bowling Green has not lost a region tournament game against a team from the 15th District since 1985 (66-53 to Glasgow).  They have won 12 in a row against representatives from that district.
-Bowling Green is 46-9 all-time against the Trojans, including winning the last five matchups.  They played exactly one month ago at Barren County, a 72-63 Bowling Green win.
-Bowling Green center Mason Ritter is averaging 18 PPG and 11.6 RPG in the postseason. He is 24/33 (72.73%) from the floor in those three games.  Ritter is their best matchup advantage, and he is playing like it.
-Bowling Green is shooting 12/32 (37.5%) from three in the posteason, but coming off a region quarterfinal where they shot 6/12.  

-Barren County is 2-21 all-time in the region tournament against teams from the 14th District, winning the aforementioned 2016 game against Warren Central and in 1996 in a 69-66 OT win over then-#1 Greenwood.
-Barren County is seeking their fifth region final appearance, and first since 2016.  They are 4-12 in region semifinal games and lost in the semifinal round each of the past two seasons - by a combined 57 points.
-Barren County has won four of their last six games, losing to Clinton County and Warren East by a combined 6 points and winning three of those four games by a combined 15 points.
-The Trojans have not scored less than 55 in the postseason nor more than 58.  They average 58.85 PPG for the season.
-Both Aiden Miller and Eli Brooks have scored 43 postseason points, an average of just over 14 PPG.  
-The Trojans are 16/44 (36.4%) from three in the postseason.

-Warren Central is seeking their second straight appearance in the region title game, and fifth in six years. They won all four of their previous region final appearances in that span.
-Warren Central has not lost a game at the region tournament since falling to Barren County in the 2016 region semifinals, winning their last 13 region tournament games.  They missed the region tournament in 2017 & 2021.  
-Warren Central is 23-3 all-time in the region semifinal round.
-Warren Central has not met Warren East in a region tournament since the 1989 region finals, which Warren East won 68-66 (at Barren County).  They are 0-2 all-time against Warren East in the region tournament, additionally losing the 1986 4th Region Finals.
-The two last met in the postseason in 2022, when they were still in the same district - Warren Central won that meeting 71-49.  Central has won the last 12 postseason games between the two teams.  The 1989 Region Finals was Warren East's last postseason win in the series.
-Warren Central and Warren East have not met at Diddle Arena since the 1993 District Finals, a 47-45 OT win by the Dragons. Warren East is 9-3 all-time against Warren Central at Diddle Arena.
-Warren Central has won 21 games in a row and enters the game ranked #1 in the state.
-Central has not scored fewer than 72 points in their last six games, and has not allowed greater than 63 points in that span.  Their scoring margin of 24.45 PPG leads the state.
-Chappelle Whitney leads the Dragons in postseason scoring with 59 points, just under 20 PPG.  Walkup (14 PPG) and Unseld (11 PPG) are also averagin in double figures during the postseason.
-Warren Central is 23/65 (35.4%) from three during the postseason.  Their primary seven man rotation is 21/50 (42%).

-Warren East is in their first region tournament since 1997, and seeking their first region final since that same year, when they won.
-The Raiders have not lost a region tournament game since 1993, winning their last seven games played at region.  Wednesday's win over Monroe County was their first region tournament win at Diddle Arena since 1993.
-Warren East is 10-5 all-time in the region semifinal round, winning six of their last seven second round games.
-Warren East competed in all previous region tournament appearances as a member of the 14th District, and are appearing as a member of the 15th District for the first time.  They have won all six of their previous region tournament matchups with 14th District teams, all region finals.
-The 22 point victory over Monroe County was the largest margin for the Raiders since beating Foundation Christian Academy by 30 on January 17th. Their previous four wins were by a combined 18 points, and the last three by a combined six points.  
-The Raiders have allowed over 55 points only once in the last six games, an 84-72 loss to Monroe County on February 16th when they were missing two starters.  They average only 56.33 PPG against this season.
-Isaiah Andrews is averaging over 23 PPG in the postseason, including scoring 25 of his team's 56 points in the district final win over Barren County.
-The Raiders are shooting 16/50 (32%) from three during the postseason.