35 minutes ago, Mojocat said:

It’s an interesting question.  I tend to think of the 16 regions in two groups, you might call them the haves and have nots.  Really, it’s tied to proximity to  the metro areas, Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati.  So my presumption is the 6th, 7th, 9th and 11th are the strongest.  Beyond that, I’m not sure why there’d be much difference between the rest.  

I think of them in the same way, except 3 or maybe 4 tiers instead of 2.

3 hours ago, Randy Parker said:

I think of them in the same way, except 3 or maybe 4 tiers instead of 2.

So how do you rank them?  I’ve not seen enough of the various regions to make an educated guess…..

55 minutes ago, Mojocat said:

So how do you rank them?  I’ve not seen enough of the various regions to make an educated guess…..

Similar to what you said with 6, 7, 9, & 11 in a tier.  Or I might just make it 7, 9, & 11.  Then maybe 6 & 4.  Then 2, 5, & 10.  1, 3, 12, then maybe 8 would be in that group. And as much as I love the mountain schools, they're in the bottom group.

I just know when the Sweet 16 draw happens every year, I look for the 10th first because that's my Region.  Then I look for 7, 9, 11, 6, & 4.  Probably in that order.

While I think what you say is correct, the 3 Oldham County schools are as close to Metro Louisville as many of the 6th and 7th region teams.

Those 3 schools (North Oldham, South Oldham, and Oldham County) have direct feeders that take their basketball very seriously.

Look for North to be back again next year, and with the success of their middle school program, they should be contenders for years to come.

On 3/18/2022 at 12:45 PM, Statsdontlie said:

I thought Tramane Alcorn did an outstanding job defending Dallas Roberts. He was the leading scorer for them and only had 4 points. 

Bingo.

THE key to the entire game.

20 minutes ago, Falcon Pride said:

While I think what you say is correct, the 3 Oldham County schools are as close to Metro Louisville as many of the 6th and 7th region teams.

Those 3 schools (North Oldham, South Oldham, and Oldham County) have direct feeders that take their basketball very seriously.

Look for North to be back again next year, and with the success of their middle school program, they should be contenders for years to come.

The fact that all five starters return - and the top two subs - makes North the likely favorite next year in the 8th Region, preseason.

On 3/18/2022 at 12:41 PM, Randy Parker said:

From the prediction thread:

Told you @Runcible Owl.

Absolutely spot on, Randy.   

?

Four big keys to the win for Lincoln:

1) (the biggest key of all) was Alcorn's defense on Roberts.  Dallas stayed in control and ran the floor game for North, but his four points was the fewest points Dallas has ever scored in a post-season tournament game in the four years he has started on the varsity.    His previous low was 11, and he was averaging 20 ppg in 12 previous post-season games.

2) The outside shooting differential.   North hit just 2 three pointers; Lincoln (kudos to Randy here) shot 50% from beyond the arc and hit nine.  Great ball reversal by the Patriots, and North struggled to contain it.

3)  Lincoln outrebounded a much taller, and very good rebounding team from North.   Only by three boards, but they were more fundamentally sound blocking out, and that was big.

4)  Finally, the game was largely decided by one run, the Patriots' run in the second period that turned a 12-11 deficit after one quarter into a 33-18 Patriot lead at one point late in the second.    North would ultimately cut it to 8 with about 2 minutes to play, but could get no closer.

Kudos to Lincoln County on a great win and a great run.

Congrats also to the Mustangs, who earned the school's first-ever state tourney berth, and made it to round 2.  A young team that returns all 5 starters - and their top 7 overall - North has an excellent shot at returning next year and a chance to do even better.

CM

2 hours ago, Randy Parker said:

Similar to what you said with 6, 7, 9, & 11 in a tier.  Or I might just make it 7, 9, & 11.  Then maybe 6 & 4.  Then 2, 5, & 10.  1, 3, 12, then maybe 8 would be in that group. And as much as I love the mountain schools, they're in the bottom group.

I just know when the Sweet 16 draw happens every year, I look for the 10th first because that's my Region.  Then I look for 7, 9, 11, 6, & 4.  Probably in that order.

So you see it like this, if I follow:
Tier 1:  7, 9, 11

Tier 2:  6, 4

Tier 3:  2,  5, 10

Tier 4:  1, 3, 12, 8

Tier 5:  13, 14, 15, 16

i can’t quibble too much.  The 5th is where I grew up, and honestly I don’t think of it as being much better than the 8th.  Our team was pretty mediocre this year, and played the 2nd or 3rd best team in the 6th to the wire, as far as that goes. My bias and selective thinking is no doubt at play - when I think of the 8th Region, I’m thinking of the Oldham schools, Collins, Woodford, and obviously if you’re assessing a region you need to include all 18 schools.

2 hours ago, Mojocat said:

So you see it like this, if I follow:
Tier 1:  7, 9, 11

Tier 2:  6, 4

Tier 3:  2,  5, 10

Tier 4:  1, 3, 12, 8

Tier 5:  13, 14, 15, 16

i can’t quibble too much.  The 5th is where I grew up, and honestly I don’t think of it as being much better than the 8th.  Our team was pretty mediocre this year, and played the 2nd or 3rd best team in the 6th to the wire, as far as that goes. My bias and selective thinking is no doubt at play - when I think of the 8th Region, I’m thinking of the Oldham schools, Collins, Woodford, and obviously if you’re assessing a region you need to include all 18 schools.

That's pretty close probably.  I've never sat down to really put it on paper.  I might do some number crunching and see how the Regions would rank.  With the 5th I think of the Hardins, Bardstown, and E'Town.  That group seems a bit stronger than the Oldhams, Collins, and Woodford. 

Your very last sentence is an important one.  That list might look a little bit different if you're looking at the Regions from top to bottom.  I was pretty much looking at it from a Sweet 16 perspective. 

It's an interesting discussion.  I would like to put some hard numbers together to see how it all shakes out.

2 hours ago, Randy Parker said:

That's pretty close probably.  I've never sat down to really put it on paper.  I might do some number crunching and see how the Regions would rank.  With the 5th I think of the Hardins, Bardstown, and E'Town.  That group seems a bit stronger than the Oldhams, Collins, and Woodford. 

Your very last sentence is an important one.  That list might look a little bit different if you're looking at the Regions from top to bottom.  I was pretty much looking at it from a Sweet 16 perspective. 

It's an interesting discussion.  I would like to put some hard numbers together to see how it all shakes out.

I'm a little biased, but the 8th Region's better teams face the 5th Region's better teams most years, and the 8th is pretty darn successful.    Since the 2016 Sweet 16, the 8th Region is 6-6 in state tournament games....the 5th is 4-6 (and 3 of those wins came during Etown's run to last year's final game).   

For that matter, I'm not sure but what the top six Region 8 teams - I chose Oldham County, South Oldham, Simon Kenton, Woodford County, and Collins - over the last 6 years haven't been better than Louisville's 6th Region as well....hmmm.

You got me thinking....I've always felt the 8th was largely overlooked....but is that right?   You mentioned the Fifth .....so I looked up six of the Region 8 teams:  Oldham County, Collins, Woodford County, South Oldham, Simon Kenton, and Spencer County....  my logic was that if I'm really trying to compare strength vs. strength - after all, the regions send their best to be measured against other regions' best - I should compare some of the top teams over the period I'm looking at.   Six teams is approximately the top third of the region....

Over the last 6 seasons, those Eighth Region teams are a combined 48-12 against Region 5 competition.     As the 8th often plays the 6th Region - and I think, fare well against the well-respected 6th Region, which appears in your second tier....I note that those 8th Region teams are 57-31 against Region 6 competition during that time.

Oldham County

   13-2 vs. Region 5:   5-0 vs. North Hardin, 3-0 vs. Central Hardin, 1-0 vs. LaRue County, 2-0 vs. Taylor County, 1-1 vs. John Hardin, 1-1 vs. Bardstown

   13-5 vs. Region 6:  4-1 vs. DeSales, 3-0 vs. North Bullitt, 2-0 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. PRP, 1-0 vs. Bullitt Central, 1-0 vs. Jeffersontown, 1-0 vs. Moore, 0-1 vs. Valley, 0-2 vs. Doss

Collins

   3-3 vs. Region 5:   2-0 vs. Marion County, 1-0 vs Adair County, 0-2 vs. Bardstown, and 0-1 vs. John Hardin

  9-7 vs. Region 6:  4-0 vs. North Bullitt, 2-3 vs. Bullitt East, 2-3 vs. DeSales, 1-0 vs. Valley, 0-1 vs. Doss

South Oldham

   6-3 vs. Region 5:  1-0 vs. Marion County, 3-3 vs. Central Hardin, 2-0 vs. LaRue County, 1-0 vs. Bardstown

   16-8 vs. Region 6:  5-2 vs. North Bullitt, 5-1 vs. Iroquois, 1-2 vs. DeSales, 3-1 vs. Bullitt East, 1-0 vs. Valley, 1-0 vs. Southern, 0-1 vs. Butler, 0-1 vs. Jeffersontown

Simon Kenton - long way for a northern KY team like SK to travel to the Fifth and Sixth regions....not many meetings over six seasons.

   1-0 vs. Region 5:   1-0 vs. Bardstown

   1-3 vs. Region 6:  1-0 vs. Evangel, 0-1 vs. PRP, 0-1 vs. DeSales, 0-1 vs. Bullitt East

Woodford County

   3-0 vs. Region 5:  1-0 vs. Central Hardin, 1-0 vs Bardstown, and 1-0 vs. TayIor County

   1-1 vs. Region 6:  1-0 vs. PRP; 0-1 vs. Evangel

Spencer County - tucked into the farthest southern reaches of Region 8, Spencer plays a lot of games against Region 5 and Region 6 competition.    And they have been very successful against both.

   22-4 vs. Region 5:   5-0 vs. Nelson Co., 1-0 vs. LaRue County, 5-0 vs. Bethlehem, 1-1 vs Taylor County, 1-0 vs. Elizabethtown, 2-1 vs. Bardstown, 4-0 vs.Thomas Nelson, and 1-1 vs. North Hardin, 0-1 vs. Campbellsville, 2-0 vs. Washington County

   17-7 vs. Region 6:   1-0 vs. DeSales, 3-0 vs. Jeffersontown, 2-0 vs. Iroquois, 5-1 vs. Bullitt Central, 1-1 vs. PRP, 2-4 vs. Bullitt East, 3-0 vs. North Bullitt, 0-1 vs. Western

*************

Region 8 vs. Region 5 - So....if the top third of the 8th did so well against all of the Fifth Region, how did the top third of the Fifth fare against all of the 8th?   I compared the Region 8 six to the following from Region 5: North Hardin, Central Hardin, Elizabethtown, John Hardin, Bardstown, and LaRue County.    I personally would have picked Adair over North Hardin, but Adair only played one game against the 8th over the last six years, losing to Collins, and North Hardin was suggested in the post, above...   Only JH has a winning record against 8th Region teams over the last six years.   All told, the six are a combined 18-34 against 8th Region competition over the last six seasons.

North Hardin

    1-8 vs. Region 8:  0-5 vs. Oldham County, 0-2 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs. Spencer County

Central Hardin

   6-10 vs. Region 8:  1-0 vs. Gallatin County, 1-1 vs Shelby County, 3-3 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Carroll County, 0-2 vs. Anderson County, 0-3 vs. Oldham County, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

Etown

   0-2 vs Region 8:   0-1 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs. North Oldham     (Last year, Elizabethtown was scheduled to play Oldham County....too bad COVID cancelled the game....both teams won their regions and Etown went all the way to the state finals....would have been a GREAT game)

Bardstown

   7-8 vs. Region 8:  2-2 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs. Oldham County, 2-0 vs. Collins, 1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-2 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Simon Kenton, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

LaRue County

   0-4 vs. Region 8:   0-2 vs South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Oldham County, 0-1 vs Spencer County

John Hardin

   4-2 vs Region 8:   1-1 vs Oldham County, 1-0 vs. Grant County, 1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-0 vs Collins, 0-1 vs. North Oldham

CONCLUSION:    Best vs. the Best, I have to conclude that, over the last six seasons, the 8th Region should be ranked a tier above the Fifth.     Even if you compare just the games played between the top 6 of both regions, the 8th has a significant 26-10 advantage.

********

What about the Sixth?   The conventional wisdom would rank the Sixth Region ahead of the 8th in any overall comparison.   The Sixth is, indeed, a talented region and full of competitive basketball.    But, what would a similar comparison show?   I chose the following teams to compare from the Sixth:   Fern Creek, PRP, Bullitt East, Jeffersontown, DeSales, and Doss.   Left out some teams that have had some pretty good seasons in the last six years, such as Butler and Western.   (but then again, I left out North Oldham, Walton-Verona, and Gallatin County out of the Region 8 mix, so....)

The Sixth Region compares favorably against the 8th....five of the six teams reviewed have winning records against the 8th, and overall, the six teams are 35-26 against 8th Region foes.

Bullitt East

   9-7 vs. 8th Region:   3-2 vs. Collins, 4-2 vs. Spencer County, 1-3 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Simon Kenton

PRP

   4-3 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 1-0 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs Oldham County, 1-1 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

Fern Creek

   3-0 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 1-0 vs. North Oldham

Jeffersontown - the one team among the six 6th Region teams reviewed with a losing record

   3-5 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-1 vs. North Oldham, 1-0 vs. South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Oldham County, 0-3 vs. Spencer County

DeSales - a "frequent flyer" vs. 8th Region schools

   12-11 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 3-2 vs Collins, 3-0 vs. Shelby County, 2-1 vs. South Oldham, 2-3 vs North Oldham, 1-4 vs Oldham County, 0-1 vs Spencer County

Doss

   4-0 vs 8th Region:  2-0 vs Oldham County, 1-0 vs Walton-Verona, and 1-0 vs Collins

Conclusion:   Comparing the best vs the best is somewhat of a wash when comparing the top third of the 8th Region over the last 6 years vs the top third of the 6th Region over the last 6 years.   Both groups of six have been successful against the other region.     (The Region 8 teams were a combined 57-31 against the entirety of the Sixth.....the Region 6 teams were a combined 35-26 against the entirety of the 8th Region...)  Comparing the records of the top six of each region against ONLY the top six of the other region over the last six years results in a near dead-heat; the Sixth Region holds a slight 26-23 advantage there.

Final Thoughts:   Based on the last six years, I would have the 8th Region in a tier above the Fifth Region, and in the same tier as the 6th Region

(that was actually very fun - and interesting....)

CM

Goodness, that’s a thorough review!  Thanks Mike, interesting stuff.

Also, it occurs to me, taking your analysis at face value, we’re left with what is often the case in many different aspects of life:  often, you can’t trust your eyes and instincts!  Would be really interesting to see that kind of in depth review of all the regions….

15 hours ago, ColonelMike said:

I'm a little biased, but the 8th Region's better teams face the 5th Region's better teams most years, and the 8th is pretty darn successful.    Since the 2016 Sweet 16, the 8th Region is 6-6 in state tournament games....the 5th is 4-6 (and 3 of those wins came during Etown's run to last year's final game).   

For that matter, I'm not sure but what the top six Region 8 teams - I chose Oldham County, South Oldham, Simon Kenton, Woodford County, and Collins - over the last 6 years haven't been better than Louisville's 6th Region as well....hmmm.

You got me thinking....I've always felt the 8th was largely overlooked....but is that right?   You mentioned the Fifth .....so I looked up six of the Region 8 teams:  Oldham County, Collins, Woodford County, South Oldham, Simon Kenton, and Spencer County....  my logic was that if I'm really trying to compare strength vs. strength - after all, the regions send their best to be measured against other regions' best - I should compare some of the top teams over the period I'm looking at.   Six teams is approximately the top third of the region....

Over the last 6 seasons, those Eighth Region teams are a combined 48-12 against Region 5 competition.     As the 8th often plays the 6th Region - and I think, fare well against the well-respected 6th Region, which appears in your second tier....I note that those 8th Region teams are 57-31 against Region 6 competition during that time.

Oldham County

   13-2 vs. Region 5:   5-0 vs. North Hardin, 3-0 vs. Central Hardin, 1-0 vs. LaRue County, 2-0 vs. Taylor County, 1-1 vs. John Hardin, 1-1 vs. Bardstown

   13-5 vs. Region 6:  4-1 vs. DeSales, 3-0 vs. North Bullitt, 2-0 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. PRP, 1-0 vs. Bullitt Central, 1-0 vs. Jeffersontown, 1-0 vs. Moore, 0-1 vs. Valley, 0-2 vs. Doss

Collins

   3-3 vs. Region 5:   2-0 vs. Marion County, 1-0 vs Adair County, 0-2 vs. Bardstown, and 0-1 vs. John Hardin

  9-7 vs. Region 6:  4-0 vs. North Bullitt, 2-3 vs. Bullitt East, 2-3 vs. DeSales, 1-0 vs. Valley, 0-1 vs. Doss

South Oldham

   6-3 vs. Region 5:  1-0 vs. Marion County, 3-3 vs. Central Hardin, 2-0 vs. LaRue County, 1-0 vs. Bardstown

   16-8 vs. Region 6:  5-2 vs. North Bullitt, 5-1 vs. Iroquois, 1-2 vs. DeSales, 3-1 vs. Bullitt East, 1-0 vs. Valley, 1-0 vs. Southern, 0-1 vs. Butler, 0-1 vs. Jeffersontown

Simon Kenton - long way for a northern KY team like SK to travel to the Fifth and Sixth regions....not many meetings over six seasons.

   1-0 vs. Region 5:   1-0 vs. Bardstown

   1-3 vs. Region 6:  1-0 vs. Evangel, 0-1 vs. PRP, 0-1 vs. DeSales, 0-1 vs. Bullitt East

Woodford County

   3-0 vs. Region 5:  1-0 vs. Central Hardin, 1-0 vs Bardstown, and 1-0 vs. TayIor County

   1-1 vs. Region 6:  1-0 vs. PRP; 0-1 vs. Evangel

Spencer County - tucked into the farthest southern reaches of Region 8, Spencer plays a lot of games against Region 5 and Region 6 competition.    And they have been very successful against both.

   22-4 vs. Region 5:   5-0 vs. Nelson Co., 1-0 vs. LaRue County, 5-0 vs. Bethlehem, 1-1 vs Taylor County, 1-0 vs. Elizabethtown, 2-1 vs. Bardstown, 4-0 vs.Thomas Nelson, and 1-1 vs. North Hardin, 0-1 vs. Campbellsville, 2-0 vs. Washington County

   17-7 vs. Region 6:   1-0 vs. DeSales, 3-0 vs. Jeffersontown, 2-0 vs. Iroquois, 5-1 vs. Bullitt Central, 1-1 vs. PRP, 2-4 vs. Bullitt East, 3-0 vs. North Bullitt, 0-1 vs. Western

*************

Region 8 vs. Region 5 - So....if the top third of the 8th did so well against all of the Fifth Region, how did the top third of the Fifth fare against all of the 8th?   I compared the Region 8 six to the following from Region 5: North Hardin, Central Hardin, Elizabethtown, John Hardin, Bardstown, and LaRue County.    I personally would have picked Adair over North Hardin, but Adair only played one game against the 8th over the last six years, losing to Collins, and North Hardin was suggested in the post, above...   Only JH has a winning record against 8th Region teams over the last six years.   All told, the six are a combined 18-34 against 8th Region competition over the last six seasons.

North Hardin

    1-8 vs. Region 8:  0-5 vs. Oldham County, 0-2 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs. Spencer County

Central Hardin

   6-10 vs. Region 8:  1-0 vs. Gallatin County, 1-1 vs Shelby County, 3-3 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Carroll County, 0-2 vs. Anderson County, 0-3 vs. Oldham County, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

Etown

   0-2 vs Region 8:   0-1 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs. North Oldham     (Last year, Elizabethtown was scheduled to play Oldham County....too bad COVID cancelled the game....both teams won their regions and Etown went all the way to the state finals....would have been a GREAT game)

Bardstown

   7-8 vs. Region 8:  2-2 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs. Oldham County, 2-0 vs. Collins, 1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-2 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Simon Kenton, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

LaRue County

   0-4 vs. Region 8:   0-2 vs South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Oldham County, 0-1 vs Spencer County

John Hardin

   4-2 vs Region 8:   1-1 vs Oldham County, 1-0 vs. Grant County, 1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-0 vs Collins, 0-1 vs. North Oldham

CONCLUSION:    Best vs. the Best, I have to conclude that, over the last six seasons, the 8th Region should be ranked a tier above the Fifth.     Even if you compare just the games played between the top 6 of both regions, the 8th has a significant 26-10 advantage.

********

What about the Sixth?   The conventional wisdom would rank the Sixth Region ahead of the 8th in any overall comparison.   The Sixth is, indeed, a talented region and full of competitive basketball.    But, what would a similar comparison show?   I chose the following teams to compare from the Sixth:   Fern Creek, PRP, Bullitt East, Jeffersontown, DeSales, and Doss.   Left out some teams that have had some pretty good seasons in the last six years, such as Butler and Western.   (but then again, I left out North Oldham, Walton-Verona, and Gallatin County out of the Region 8 mix, so....)

The Sixth Region compares favorably against the 8th....five of the six teams reviewed have winning records against the 8th, and overall, the six teams are 35-26 against 8th Region foes.

Bullitt East

   9-7 vs. 8th Region:   3-2 vs. Collins, 4-2 vs. Spencer County, 1-3 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Simon Kenton

PRP

   4-3 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 1-0 vs. North Oldham, 1-1 vs Oldham County, 1-1 vs. Spencer County, 0-1 vs. Woodford County

Fern Creek

   3-0 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. South Oldham, 1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 1-0 vs. North Oldham

Jeffersontown - the one team among the six 6th Region teams reviewed with a losing record

   3-5 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Shelby County, 1-1 vs. North Oldham, 1-0 vs. South Oldham, 0-1 vs. Oldham County, 0-3 vs. Spencer County

DeSales - a "frequent flyer" vs. 8th Region schools

   12-11 vs. 8th Region:  1-0 vs. Simon Kenton, 3-2 vs Collins, 3-0 vs. Shelby County, 2-1 vs. South Oldham, 2-3 vs North Oldham, 1-4 vs Oldham County, 0-1 vs Spencer County

Doss

   4-0 vs 8th Region:  2-0 vs Oldham County, 1-0 vs Walton-Verona, and 1-0 vs Collins

Conclusion:   Comparing the best vs the best is somewhat of a wash when comparing the top third of the 8th Region over the last 6 years vs the top third of the 6th Region over the last 6 years.   Both groups of six have been successful against the other region.     (The Region 8 teams were a combined 57-31 against the entirety of the Sixth.....the Region 6 teams were a combined 35-26 against the entirety of the 8th Region...)  Comparing the records of the top six of each region against ONLY the top six of the other region over the last six years results in a near dead-heat; the Sixth Region holds a slight 26-23 advantage there.

Final Thoughts:   Based on the last six years, I would have the 8th Region in a tier above the Fifth Region, and in the same tier as the 6th Region

(that was actually very fun - and interesting....)

CM

Now that is my kind of stuff. I love it when people take the deep dive and put facts to a theory/story. Well done CM!