Assuming Alabama and Ohio State win their conferences, they are in. The winner of Clemson/Notre Dame is in. If Clemson wins, unless it’s a blowout win, Notre Dame will likely stay in. If ND wins, Clemson is out. Unless you’re a Clemson fan, this is the scenario we should all be rooting for because the 4th spot is going to be really interesting. 
 

Contenders: 

- Texas A&M 

- Cincinnati 

- Winner of Iowa State/ Oklahoma 

- USC 

I’m not sure there’s a right choice in that scenario. Who would you put in? 

A&M.

Personally, I think you have to put Cincinnati or USC in. We’ve already seen A&M get blown out by Bama so that disqualifies them in my opinion. With 2 losses, I couldn’t put Iowa State or Oklahoma in. That really leaves Cincinnati or USC. I’ll be really curious where the committee puts USC this week after their comeback win over UCLA tonight. If they aren’t in the top 10 still, then it’s going to be Cincy. This is the first time I feel like UC has a real shot at the playoffs. 

Just now, John Anthony said:

A&M.

I fear that would happen, but we’ve already seen them get blown out by Bama. Bama’s going to blow out whoever their matched up with in the first round anyways, so I would hope the committee would at least consider UC. 

1 hour ago, GrantNKY said:

I fear that would happen, but we’ve already seen them get blown out by Bama. Bama’s going to blow out whoever their matched up with in the first round anyways, so I would hope the committee would at least consider UC. 

UC or USC would be a mismatch, A&M only get tagged again.

28 minutes ago, John Anthony said:

UC or USC would be a mismatch, A&M only get tagged again.

How much better do you think A&M is than UC? 

How bad would ND have to get beat by to miss out completely?

If they were to get ran by 21 points or so, I think they get left out. With today's offense heavy teams at the top, 21 points could happen to anyone.

I think if UC gets some style points, and ND beats Clemson, they've got a chance. 

What a debacle if Texas A&M gets in.  They have one good win, against Florida, and that win just got less-good after last night.   

USC has had some close calls/comebacks against very average or poor teams, one of which (Arizona) just lost by 9 touchdowns to their in-state rival.

Big 12 champion...I think Oklahoma will beat Iowa St. in the rematch, but I don't see them jumping up that high with 2 losses. 

UC has to win by 40+ to even get a look at one of the final 4 spots. Even then, I think they’re still left out.

8 hours ago, GrantNKY said:

How much better do you think A&M is than UC? 

You know that’s an excellent debate itself, I had to look back at the schedules.  10-13 points better than UC? 

4 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

How bad would ND have to get beat by to miss out completely?

If they were to get ran by 21 points or so, I think they get left out. With today's offense heavy teams at the top, 21 points could happen to anyone.

28 points.

4 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

How bad would ND have to get beat by to miss out completely?

If they were to get ran by 21 points or so, I think they get left out. With today's offense heavy teams at the top, 21 points could happen to anyone.

I just don’t see it happening to ND getting blown out that much. I’m not sure they’ll win the rematch, but I’d be shocked if it’s a blowout. 

16 minutes ago, John Anthony said:

You know that’s an excellent debate itself, I had to look back at the schedules.  10-13 points better than UC? 

That feels high to me. I think it’s closer to 4-5 points better. 

2 minutes ago, GrantNKY said:

That feels high to me. I think it’s closer to 4-5 points better. 

I think Vegas would make A&M -7.5.

7 minutes ago, John Anthony said:

I think Vegas would make A&M -7.5.

I think I’d lay money on UC to cover that line. A lot of that has to do with the QB though. I’d take Ridder over Mond every day of the week.