Handicapping the Worst Case and Best Case Outcome for Select Season Finale's

 

Lexington Christian Academy vs. Paintsville

 

Worst Case: This will not be an easy game. Period. The Tigers may be small in numbers but are big on grit and have played a brutal schedule and been consistently stout on Defense. Ask Beechwood what Paintsville can do when they make it a low scoring affair. The worst case is LCA not only takes a RPI hit with a loss that hurts them down the road, but they lose a key playmaker.

 

Best Case: For all the teams Paintsville have faced, LCA will bring the most unique look from an athleticism and skill standpoint. LCA capitalizes on big plays early and builds a nice lead and the Tiger staff gears down and both teams escape without injury. In the process, LCA gets another win to help bolster their RPI case and Mayfield takes a loss locking in the #1 overall seed.

 

 

Somerset vs. 4A Corbin

 

Worst Case: Simply put, the Briarjumpers need to remember the long game. Whether you are a 2-seed or not, the RPI seeds do not care. A loss here coupled with several big wins around them and Somerset may have to take their talents on the road after Round 1. They also need to protect their RB stable from injury.

 

Best Case: They catch a Redhound team still smarting from their shocking loss and get not only a big win, but a class jump bonus that might give them all they need to take the top seed if LCA falters against Paintsville. Then it is simply a case of beating LCA in Round 2 and the playoff path opens up for Somerset favorably.

 

 

Mayfield vs. Madisonville-North Hopkins

 

Worst Case: After all the positive momentum and progress on Defense, Jeriah Hightower does what he has done so well and goes off and exploits weaknesses in the Cardinals' armor and subsequently cost them any shot at the #1 overall seed.

 

Best Case: Win and Somerset will probably not have a chance to pass you for the top seed. Additionally, LCA is playing down as the Cards play up in Classification, so a victory means it will be possible to gain ground regardless if LCA wins or not. If Mayfield can secure the big momentum win, get some favorable breaks from their past opponents, and have a couple LCA failures from their wins... maybe just maybe War Memorial will host the first four rounds of the playoffs.

 

Beechwood vs. Newport Central Catholic

 

Worst Case: This is a game you simply cannot lose at this point if you are Beechwood. The Tigers have found a groove and found confidence and a loss here would totally submarine that progress. Additionally, a loss might cost them the top seed in the East.

 

Best Case: In terms of moving up in the RPI, there really is not much to gain here. The #1 and #2 seeds overall seem pretty locked in, this is a game about self development. Beechwood needs their Offense to continue to hum and this could be a nice springboard into November.

 

 

Breathitt County vs. Pike Central

 

Worst Case: This is the only non-District team Breathitt will play with a winning record potentially. If the Bobcats somehow drop this game it will be a catastrophic loss and a harbinger of things to come. This is a game they should win, and a game that all of the top teams would win in the Class.

 

Best Case: This is exactly the tune up Breathitt needs entering the playoffs and their starters actually get some additional reps and can put some window dressing on film. Pike Centrla should be a nice RPI boost and if Beechwood falters against NewCath, it might help them get the top seed in the East.

 

Murray vs. Fulton County

 

Worst Case: The worst possible scenario is a negative prognosis for Hunter Utley that costs him the rest of the season. In addition to that, between the hangover of back to back losses, the loss of their star QB, and possibly overlooking a vastly improved Fulton County team, the unthinkable happens and they get shocked.

 

Best Case: Murray desperately needs a redound and something to pick their spirits up. A win here and their entire perception changes heading into a Round 1 rematch with Caldwell County that they know they can go toe to toe with.

 

Lloyd Memorial vs. Elizabethtown

 

Worst Case: Lloyd has not exactly been sharp in the past few weeks and with a blowout loss to Beechwood still weighing on their mind, following that up with a lopsided loss to Elizabethtown might strain their confidence and expose them to a potential upset against a Newport team who played them closer than the scoreboard suggested.

 

Best Case: Lloyd can pass Breathitt County most likely if they win this game in terms of RPI seeding. They still have to dodge the elephant in the room Beechwood, but how many wonders would it do to have this huge upset under their belts heading into November knowing that a win against the Tigers in Round 2 gives them a favorable Round 3 game at home?

 

West Carter vs. Russell

 

Worst Case: West Carter has the distinction of being the one eyed man in the land of the blind right now. A loss here would really dampen a lot of the good things they have done, it also could open the door for Walton-Verona to leapfrog them and make them the 4-seed. There is a chance Beechwood may get shocked and not be there come Round 3. Slim... but a chance. There is no chance Breathitt County isn't standing. Being a 3-seed at least gives an opportunity to have a fairly evenly matched foe.

 

Best Case: This one is all psychological. Beating a very heavily touted 3A team would do wonders for their confidence and let them know they can play with anyone they see in Round 3. There is no way Walton-Verona can jump them if they win and then if some chaos plays out, who knows!

 

 

Walton-Verona vs. Louisville Holy Cross

 

Worst Case: The Bearcat Offense, no longer in weak District play, relapses and suddenly they find themselves struggling to move the ball like times early in the season. They get locked into the 4-seed in the East and see a steep hill ahead.

 

Best Case: Basically see everything written about West Carter's best case above. This would be their best win of the year and proof that they are trending up into November. A confident team is a scary team.

 

 

Revenge of the 0'Fers

Ballard Memorial was the heavy favorite to close out the playoff field for District 1, but Fort Campbell had other ideas. The Falcons secured their first win of the season in impressive fashion by grounding the Bombers 28-0.

 

We mentioned last week about the wild and crazy District 3 drama and it was not done yet. All Metcalfe County needed to do to reach the playoffs was beat winless Green County. The Dragons had other ideas though and took down Metcalfe 14-6 in overtime led by RB Noah Grey who scored both TD's and added an impressive night leading their Defense.

 

Speaking of District 3, the field is now set after the rare two way tie. Though Edmonson County lost to the one team who missed the playoffs entirely, the Wildcats secured the top seed by way of defeating Monroe County head to head for the Falcons' only loss in District play. Clinton County will settle into the third seed.

 

The Hartz Edge= Unbelievable Statistics

Owensboro Catholic has kind of flown under the radar this year. the Aces' kind of softened their schedule a bit and with some headliner acts taking the spotlight, it is easy to miss the Aces sitting at 8-1 entering their finale with 6A Apollo.

 

As it stands, if you have not been following Owensboro Catholic, you have been missing out on an aerial display that makes even the Blue Angels stare in awe.

 

QB Drew Hartz and WR Hagan Edge are putting up downright astounding numbers. Edge is averaging 120.7 receiving yards per game and has posted a remarkable 19 receiving scores. He has a bonus as well! He has also supplemented the running game for an additional 210 yards and 3 more scores, and also threw in a Pick 6 for the cherry on top.

 

It is the gunslinger Hartz who really has stole the show though. The Senior has thrown for 3140 yards already including an eye popping 44 passing TD's. What can make that number sizzle any more? Well how about the 22:1 TD to Interception ratio?

 

Hartz worst performance was the Aces' lone loss to Owensboro. In that game he threw both of his INT's. If you remove that game he would average a sterling 372 yards per game and 5 TD's per outing without a single pick.

 

Expect the numbers to only grow. Apollo is an improved team from Week 1, but Defense is not their strong suit. The Eagles are allowing nearly 45 points per game and were lit up for 81 points by McCracken County earlier this year. In fact, the Eagles have not allowed less than 20 points all season and only had three games where they held their opponents under 40.

As long as Mayfield, LCA and Somerset end up 1, 2, 3 in any order, Mayfield and Somerset/LCA winner couldn't meet until the finals, right?

Class 2A

 

Mayfield has found their defensive stride and the rest of Class 2A should serve notice. The Cardinals shut down Murray and will get one last tune up when they take on Mr. Hightower and his Madisonville squad. Beechwood is also peaking at the right time as they posted their second straight dominating win against solid competition. They will look to keep the mojo going against Newport Central Catholic. Lexington Christian Academy and Somerset both know what looms in Round 2, but before then they each have stout season finales. Eyes will also be on Breathitt County as the Bobcats get to face essentially the only non-district foe with a winning record.

 

1. Lexington Christian Academy at 1A #2 Paintsville

2. Somerset at 4A #6 Corbin

3. Mayfield at 4A #7 Madisonville-North Hopkins

4. Beechwood vs. 1A #3 Newport Central Catholic

5. Owensboro Catholic vs. 6A Apollo

6. Caldwell County at 3A Trigg County

7. Breathitt County vs. 3A Pike Central

8. Murray at 1A Fulton County

9. Lloyd Memorial vs. 3A #6 Elizabethtown

10. Newport -- OPEN

As long as Mayfield, LCA and Somerset end up 1, 2, 3 in any order, Mayfield and Somerset/LCA winner couldn't meet until the finals, right?

 

Correct-a-mundo

I asked this on another thread and no one confirmed, but assuming Mayfield finishes in the top three of the RPI (regardless of fridays outcome), doesn't that mean they will host all games until finals (assuming they make it that far)?? Either somerset or LCA will be gone after round 2....

I asked this on another thread and no one confirmed, but assuming Mayfield finishes in the top three of the RPI (regardless of fridays outcome), doesn't that mean they will host all games until finals (assuming they make it that far)?? Either somerset or LCA will be gone after round 2....

 

Yes, as along as those are the top 3 Mayfield would have home field til the finals.

That is correct considering either 1 or 2 will eliminate themselves in district.

ATLcat is right on the money about OCath's Hartz and Edge. I caught a glimpse when they won the small school division 7v7 tournament at McCracken back in July and thought they've got something special that could be fun to watch. Drew Hartz is the real deal, but the lack of big wins in the playoffs keeps him off most people's radar. Call it bias or blinders, its a shame this kid and Edge aren't getting D1 looks.

ATLcat is right on the money about OCath's Hartz and Edge. I caught a glimpse when they won the small school division 7v7 tournament at McCracken back in July and thought they've got something special that could be fun to watch. Drew Hartz is the real deal, but the lack of big wins in the playoffs keeps him off most people's radar. Call it bias or blinders, its a shame this kid and Edge aren't getting D1 looks.

 

I have never been a college recruiter, but I'm sure one of the first things looked at is who are these kids dominating against. Not saying they are not good, simply pointing out that they haven't exactly been challenged. What were their stat lines against Owensboro?

How does 24-35 376yds and 4tds sound? That was when Hartz and Ocath beat Owensboro last year. So there's that. OHS defense is lights out this year and nobody is really scoring on them, but throwing out the weak schedule thing has been the go-to against OC all year...and to a degree I agree. Gotta beat somebody to be somebody...

How does 24-35 376yds and 4tds sound? That was when Hartz and Ocath beat Owensboro last year. So there's that. OHS defense is lights out this year and nobody is really scoring on them, but throwing out the weak schedule thing has been the go-to against OC all year...and to a degree I agree. Gotta beat somebody to be somebody...

 

I think he was asking about this year when he went 12-24 for 162 yds with 1 TD and 2 int's.

I believe he was pointing out whether Hartz or Edge could play in college based on their level of high school competition.

We mentioned last week about the wild and crazy District 3 drama and it was not done yet. All Metcalfe County needed to do to reach the playoffs was beat winless Green County. The Dragons had other ideas though and took down Metcalfe 14-6 in overtime led by RB Noah Grey who scored both TD's and added an impressive night leading their Defense.

 

Speaking of District 3, the field is now set after the rare two way tie. Though Edmonson County lost to the one team who missed the playoffs entirely, the Wildcats secured the top seed by way of defeating Monroe County head to head for the Falcons' only loss in District play. Clinton County will settle into the third seed.

 

District 3 was insane all season. No surprise that it came down to chaos in the final week.