For a white candidate? The incumbent he/she is running against would have to really be a bad, bad candidate.

 

Worse than Trump, which was maybe the most flawed as far as mainstream Politics has ever had? Given Hillary was the most flawed career politician ever to run in the modern era of getting info as it happens. Thats what the senator I heard yesterday was saying. Only way to get the urban vote is to run a black person. If not they better be figuring out how to get the white rural vote. That was his words. He essentially said no white candidate is going to ever get the urban vote out and unless they figure out how to get the flyover vote then it was going to be a hard win for president anymore for the D's.

 

I have a good friend that lives in Minnesota. He says they are slowly moving to a red state and suspects by the next election they will join Wisconsin.

Worse than Trump, which was maybe the most flawed as far as mainstream Politics has ever had? Given Hillary was the most flawed career politician ever to run in the modern era of getting info as it happens. Thats what the senator I heard yesterday was saying. Only way to get the urban vote is to run a black person. If not they better be figuring out how to get the white rural vote. That was his words. He essentially said no white candidate is going to ever get the urban vote out and unless they figure out how to get the flyover vote then it was going to be a hard win for president anymore for the D's.

 

I have a good friend that lives in Minnesota. He says they are slowly moving to a red state and suspects by the next election they will join Wisconsin.

 

Obviously we're speculating.

 

IMO candidate Biden would have gotten more of the urban vote out. HRC was so unlikeable and so unappealing to black voters that it hurt her. I don't think that would have been the case with Biden. Joe wouldn't need to bring hot sauce to a black radio station. That is demeaning and so transparent that it hurt her.

 

To tie to it to what I've been saying about MI WI and PA IMO Joe Biden would have won those voters that defected.

 

So my earlier post about a white candidate may have been too general. The right white candidate can get the black vote out in greater numbers than we saw in 2016.

I guarantee you the next D candidate will not make the mistake that HRC did by not campaigning ONCE in Wisconsin.

Do you think the urban turnout will ever reach the levels that it had when Obama was a candidate?

 

Yes, that's why Republican party has to get serious about reaching out to those communities and quit letting democrats drive the narrative there.

I think they can get it back IF they learn from the mistakes they made this election. They have to engage the Midwest a whole hell of a lot better than they did and they will have to work a lot harder at working to establish their trust.

 

 

I would love to see the Libertarian Party become stronger locally and in state elections so that one day they can truly be a viable third party and true option to win a national election.

 

Possible, but I think it will become like the black vote for the democrats...right now Democrats feel like they have the black vote wrapped up... the only thing is getting them out to vote (See Obama)...Trump for better or worse got the "rural" person out to vote...

While I am not totally on board with the Libertarian platform, I totally agree with you on the fact we need a solid 3rd choice to break up the status quo.

2016 will exceed 2012 in total votes cast but not by much. However, as a % of eligible voters it was about the same as 2012 and below 2008.

 

The states that saw more turnout as compared to 2012 went R.

 

Essentially, PA WI and MI won the election for Donald Trump. Specifically, the western part of each of those won the election as they switched from supporting Obama in 2008 and 2012 to supporting Trump in 2016.

 

As you point out the urban areas of those states did not turn out like they did in 08 and 12.

 

Trump won those 3 states by a total of about 115K votes.

 

2016 right now is around 62,000,000 vs 61,000,000 around 123,000,000 votes for the top 2 candidates

2012 was 65,400,000 to 60,590,000 close to 126,000,000 votes for the top 2 candidates

2008 was 69,300,000 to 59,600,000 around 130,000,000 total

 

So it looks like while Trump will barely outpace both Romney and McCain, Clinton falls far short of Obama.

You are speaking in generalities about rural counties not going D.

 

I'm telling you that many D counties from the past went red in WI MI and PA. That's not a guess nor a generality.

 

It was one of THE key reasons , along with lower urban turnout, that won the election.

 

Looking at PA for example President Obama lost 6 counties in 2012 that he won in 2008, this shift isn't entirely on Clinton, it started 4 years ago...at least in PA it did.

 

2016 right now is around 62,000,000 vs 61,000,000 around 123,000,000 votes for the top 2 candidates

2012 was 65,400,000 to 60,590,000 close to 126,000,000 votes for the top 2 candidates

2008 was 69,300,000 to 59,600,000 around 130,000,000 total

 

So it looks like while Trump will barely outpace both Romney and McCain, Clinton falls far short of Obama.

 

Voting count is up to about 130M+ thus far counting all votes.

Looking at PA for example President Obama lost 6 counties in 2012 that he won in 2008, this shift isn't entirely on Clinton, it started 4 years ago...at least in PA it did.

 

 

Of course.

 

However, there were still several counties that flipped PLUS several counties that Trump increased the margin by 15 to 20 points. Those D votes flipped. That's my point. It's not just lower urban turnout.

Dino said it first.

I did not dismiss the thread, just pointed out the futility of Democrats trying to grow their base to include hard working rural voters who are tired of pulling a wagon full of current Democrat core voters.

I did not dismiss the thread, just pointed out the futility of Democrats trying to grow their base to include hard working rural voters who are tired of pulling a wagon full of current Democrat core voters.

 

Who is the core D voter?

Who is the core D voter?

Those who are content to ride in the wagon without offering to pull it.

Those who are content to ride in the wagon without offering to pull it.

 

I figured you were going with the tired cliched profile.

 

It's like saying the core R voter is only out for the rich and doesn't like people of color.

 

Lazy.

Looks like I was wrong on the turnout. I haven't looked at updated numbers in a while.

 

A key piece of evidence would be what the turnout percentage (to control for population changes) looked like in rural counties in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If turnout percentage surged there and that's why blue went red then I'd re-evaluate my opinion.

Voting count is up to about 130M+ thus far counting all votes.

 

Yes, I was just looking at the turnout for the top 2 candidates...several 3rd party votes this year.