Track the US Senate - fivethirtyeight

[mcpapa]

Sixteen days out. Dems hold about a 2-1 probability of regaining the senate, according to fivethirtyeight.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

[Hellcats]

Finally something about Trump I find refreshing. :lol2:

[capt278]

Won't happen. Maybe in the mid-terms but not this year.

[Voice of Reason]

The Senate, and perhaps even the general election, is going to be all about turnout. Which side's base voter gets out and votes. If R's are turned off and don't vote, trouble for the Senate. If D's, especially young Bernie D's, are turned off and don;t vote, the R's should keep the Senate.

[mcpapa]

Still about the same.

 

Ds retake - 66.3%

Rs retain - 33.7%

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

[mcpapa]

It's all about how many seats are up for re-election and who currently hold those seats. From the article linked above:

 

More than twice as many Republican seats are up for election this year as Democratic seats, giving Democrats more opportunities to build a majority. To win control of the chamber, they'll need to net four additional seats — if they win the presidency. Without the White House, they'll need five.

[Bluegrasscard]

Looking at their analysis the need is for 4 or 5 seat. Two seemed definitely primed for flipping if their polling is accurate (and that is obviously suspect) - Wisconsin and Illinois.

 

Of course 'control' of the Senate is not just having over 50%. More like needing 57-58 to get close to the magic 60. That assumes there 2 or 3 Repubs who can be pulled on the key votes.

 

A little surprised KY (Paul v Gray) is not closer. But it is a wide bar that shows Gray has a chance. I think Gray will have a lot of support in Bluegrass area as a relatively popular mayor. Not sure statewide.

[Getslow]

Looking at their analysis the need is for 4 or 5 seat. Two seemed definitely primed for flipping if their polling is accurate (and that is obviously suspect) - Wisconsin and Illinois.

 

Of course 'control' of the Senate is not just having over 50%. More like needing 57-58 to get close to the magic 60. That assumes there 2 or 3 Repubs who can be pulled on the key votes.

 

A little surprised KY (Paul v Gray) is not closer. But it is a wide bar that shows Gray has a chance. I think Gray will have a lot of support in Bluegrass area as a relatively popular mayor. Not sure statewide.

 

I'm just not sure how active Gray's campaign has been. I see signs around my neighborhood, but it just doesn't seem like he's got a ton of visibility. Then again, I wouldn't campaign in Louisville either. He's going to take Jefferson County by a wide margin, I'd imagine, and needs to focus elsewhere.

[capt278]

Gray has no chance.

[mcpapa]

^ Correct.

[Science Friction]

^ Correct.

 

And that's too bad.

[Science Friction]

Gray has no chance.

 

Silver says 1 in 4 chance.

[capt278]

And that's too bad.

 

No, it's not. You really don't want Gray. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.

 

He has placed the employees of Lexington-Fayette Urban Co. Government in tough situations. Much of his balancing of budgets has come on the backs of the employees. He has attacked the Police and Fire Pension. While Lexington doesn't control the pension, he has done what he can to burden those receiving the benefits. He was finally able to do away with the COLA's.

 

Another thing he has done is cheated the firefighters of Lexington to money they are duly owed. For years the city didn't calculate the OT rate correctly. In 2005 a lawsuit was filed by members of the LFD to force the city to pay them their back pay they were owed. The city has fought this every step of the way. Since Gray has been mayor it has been extremely hard fought. Every other city in KY has settled and paid their back pay, except Lexington. Finally the Court of Appeals told Lexington earlier this year that they lost yet again in their appeal and it would be a good idea to settle.

 

Gray is anti-union.

 

In a word, he sucks.

[mcpapa]

66.9 to 33.1. Not much movement in the last five days.

[Mitch Rapp]

66.9 to 33.1. Not much movement in the last five days.

Moving from a 3:1 to a 2:1 underdog in only 5 days seems like a pretty sizable jump to me. I think Trump's lack of a strong ground game and early voting will be hard to overcome, but if he continues to stay on message, Hillary's lead should continue to evaporate. If he can avoid any more 3 AM tweeting binges, he still has a shot at winning, slim as it may be.