Class 3A

1. Belfry -- OPEN

2. Corbin vs. 5A Whitley County

3. Lexington Catholic vs. 6A Boone County

4. Boyle County vs. 6A North Hardin at Mercer County (8/20)

5. Caldwell County at 5A Christian County (8/20)

6. Central vs. 6A Manual

7. Waggener vs. 5A Iroquois

8. Garrard County vs. 4A Shelby County

9. Paducah Tilghman vs. 6A McCracken County (8/20)

10. Russell -- OPEN

 

 

Should the KHSAA go ahead and send the trophy to Belfry? Can Lexington Catholic and Corbin play underdog? Could we see another Belfry/Central Championship Game?

 

Does the Bluegrasspreps' staff have it right? Who will move after game one? Will anyone challenge Belfry for number one this season? Who is just outside the Top 10?

If there were odds of Belfry or the field, it would be roughly the same as a really fast race horse (Corbin, Lex Cath, Boyle, Caldwell, Central, etc) and a Formula 1 car on a straight stretch. The only real chance they have of winning is a crash and burn scenario for Belfry.

 

 

The sad thing is, that 2-6 range could easily have a state champion in plenty of other years. But they're going up against a giant.

 

 

I think that 7-10 range could end up being whomever has had a hot streak, or the top team out of that 2nd district (Adair, Edmonson, Etown, Hart, LaRue).

I wouldn't say it is such a foregone conclusion. Belfry is definitely the favorite, but there are so many things that can go wrong in this game that you just never know. Injuries, mental lapse, turnovers, who knows.

 

Case in point, last season the Pirates played a two game stretch that was about as bad as you could imagine. They fumbled nearly 20 times in those two games and lost the bulk of them. Cabell Midland made them pay dearly with a loss of 49-7 and Lawrence County nearly pulled the upset the following week, allowing the Pirates a late score for the 27-23 victory.

 

If that were to happen during the playoff run, the Pirate ship would be sunk.

I wouldn't say it is such a foregone conclusion. Belfry is definitely the favorite, but there are so many things that can go wrong in this game that you just never know. Injuries, mental lapse, turnovers, who knows.

 

Case in point, last season the Pirates played a two game stretch that was about as bad as you could imagine. They fumbled nearly 20 times in those two games and lost the bulk of them. Cabell Midland made them pay dearly with a loss of 49-7 and Lawrence County nearly pulled the upset the following week, allowing the Pirates a late score for the 27-23 victory.

 

If that were to happen during the playoff run, the Pirate ship would be sunk.

 

But, how likely is it that those lapses happen in November? My assumption is that those weeks in November and December are quite a different mentality for Belfry than it is for just about every other school in this state.

 

I met Haywood once, and he really seemed like the type of guy I was happy when he won. Their fans are a different case. I haven't met a ton, but those I have been around made me want Belfry to be embarrassed in the 1st round.

 

Belfry is good. Really good. Really really good. The next 5 or 6 teams are good. Really good. But they stop there. But, could a good game from anybody beat an off game from Belfry? Yeah, of course. I think it's just that as the games get more meaningful, the focus of Belfry increases and their mistake chances go way way down.

I think #s 3 though 7 and add #8 will make 3A West one of the most entertaining in the state. But unless Belfry has significant injuries (Monroe-County like), I just don't see them losing. Yes anything can happen, but when you have as big and talented of guys as they do, they just shut down what the other team wants to do (ask Lexington Catholic in the State Title game).

If someone wants a silver lining... Belfry got outscored 3-1 by Richlands in their scrimmage Friday

 

Now granted that was without OG Scott, OT Dotson, C Preece, DE Hall, LB/FB Wellman, and CB/SE Woolum... and two of those scores were against mostly 2's at the other Defensive Positions...and Richlands is the Pre-Season #2 team in Virginia 2A.... but a silver lining nonetheless

If someone wants a silver lining... Belfry got outscored 3-1 by Richlands in their scrimmage Friday

 

Now granted that was without OG Scott, OT Dotson, C Preece, DE Hall, LB/FB Wellman, and CB/SE Woolum... and two of those scores were against mostly 2's at the other Defensive Positions...and Richlands is the Pre-Season #2 team in Virginia 2A.... but a silver lining nonetheless

 

So you're telling me there's a chance?

Seriously though it comes down to injuries, matchups, and execution

 

Injuries: Belfry has a couple guys that I think are the best at their position in the entire State and even thought their backups are capable, to borrow a baseball statistic the W.A.R. of the Starters is just too high to ignore.

 

Ray Horton is irreplaceable. Not only does he dominate, he dominates despite being double teamed... Autsin Woolum as a K/SE/CB is irreplaceable.. you lose him and you lose 3 key starters. Cole Bentley is irreplaceable. Cole is a space eater on Defense and does his role as a TE sealing the edge unlike anyone else can do. Austin Dotson is irreplaceable. In Belfry's Offense his ability to pull and get to the second level where he usually has a mismatch springs big plays. Simply put what makes Belfry so good is they function like a machine and if one of these guys is gone the efficiency of the machine changes... and if heaven forbid 2 or more are gone it doubles or triples the impact.

 

Matchups: I re-watched the LexCath game and one thing kept standing out.

"LexCath didn't deserve to get beat that bad"

Corbin matched up very well with Belfry's Defense and played Belfry closer, but I honestly think LexCath would have beat Corbin as bad as Belfry did. LexCath was simply overmatched. Everyone has weaknesses and strengths. In this case LexCath's weakenesses were horribly matched to Belfry's strengths, and LexCath's strengths were neutral matched up with Belfry's weaknesses

 

Execution:

Belfry can have brain dead moments. The Cabell Midland and Lawrence County regular season games were UGLY. Part of that was Cabell Midland out Belfry'ed Belfry and the Pirates played poorly, but Lawrence County showed the difference between a lethargic and poor executing Belfry team and what they were when they were humming. People may forget but Belfry needed a late comeback to beat Lawrence the first meeting, the second meeting was a running clock.

 

Belfry's option offense has two glaring issues. 1. If they are behind it is hard to come back and they need the big play to do so. 2. It requires a LOT of ball handling and play fakes and a lot more carries, which leads to higher number of fumbles.

I met Haywood once, and he really seemed like the type of guy I was happy when he won. Their fans are a different case. I haven't met a ton, but those I have been around made me want Belfry to be embarrassed in the 1st round.

 

Coach Haywood is an ambassador, really easy to like.

 

Fans? We certainly have our share of boisterous types. Now you've made me curious who you have been exposed to lol. For the most part we are a decent group. Like UK basketball fans or Bama football fans, though, it is the loud ones who tend to leave an impression.

Class 3A

1. Belfry -- OPEN

2. Corbin vs. 5A Whitley County

3. Lexington Catholic vs. 6A Boone County

4. Boyle County vs. 6A North Hardin at Mercer County (8/20)

5. Caldwell County at 5A Christian County (8/20)

6. Central vs. 6A Manual

7. Waggener vs. 5A Iroquois

8. Garrard County vs. 4A Shelby County

9. Paducah Tilghman vs. 6A McCracken County (8/20)

10. Russell -- OPEN

 

 

 

Some really tough openers for Boyle, Caldwell, Central, Garrard, and Paducah Tilghman. Top 10 may look much different after Week 0 is over.

Some really tough openers for Boyle, Caldwell, Central, Garrard, and Paducah Tilghman. Top 10 may look much different after Week 0 is over.

 

True. I could see an 0-5. As for next week's rankings, it will be a combination of how these teams played (even if they lose) and how the next rung (11-15) perform and against what type of competition. Below Belfry, I think there could be fairly regular up-and-down movement in Class 3A this season.

...

 

Matchups: I re-watched the LexCath game and one thing kept standing out.

"LexCath didn't deserve to get beat that bad"

Corbin matched up very well with Belfry's Defense and played Belfry closer, but I honestly think LexCath would have beat Corbin as bad as Belfry did. LexCath was simply overmatched. Everyone has weaknesses and strengths. In this case LexCath's weakenesses were horribly matched to Belfry's strengths, and LexCath's strengths were neutral matched up with Belfry's weaknesses.

 

...

 

Weaknesses?

 

Maybe lack of passing game (I think they threw 3 passes or less). But when you can get 5 yards at will solely on line surge it was not a factor.

 

One thing I remember was that the Belfry secondary stayed with the Knight receivers very well and their reactions to the slip screens and other quick outs were smoothering. Belfy's team speed on the defensive side was impressive for a team known for size and power.

Weaknesses?

 

Maybe lack of passing game (I think they threw 3 passes or less). But when you can get 5 yards at will solely on line surge it was not a factor.

 

One thing I remember was that the Belfry secondary stayed with the Knight receivers very well and their reactions to the slip screens and other quick outs were smoothering. Belfy's team speed on the defensive side was impressive for a team known for size and power.

 

I would say Belfry's biggest weakness last year was they weren't an incredibly deep team at some positions. Belfry has had some teams where they were nearly platooning two units, but last year you had 4 or 5 guys having to play both ways. Had Sanger or Wellman went down at LB, or Woolum/Varney at CB the Pirates were going to have issues.

 

That still exists to some extent this year, but now they at least have young talent behind those guys.

 

The other thing I thought Belfry struggled with last year was facing themselves in a mirror. What made that Belfry defense click was that Bentley and Horton often would occupy a minimum of 3 linemen and often would eat up four guys by themselves. This gave open lanes for the LB's to fill or made it easy for the ends to play aggressive. When a team was able to bring Power at Belfry and could limit the effectiveness of Bentley and Horton by blocking them straight up long enough for the play to get past their danger, they had success. Cabell Midland, and their massive Oline, is the example. The other thing CM did was on Defense they managed to win the battle of their DE's and LB's vs. Belfry's T's, Pulling Guards, and FB's. Once again they "Out-Belfry'd Belfry".

 

The only issue is Cabell Midland is a school with nearly 2000 students and a 90+ man roster. Little easier to find the Jim's and Joe's to accom;lish this when you have triple the enrollment of the average 3A school that has to beat Belfry with their 60 man rosters.