Bump.

...

Maybe a better way to take the discussion at this point: we know that there are a lot of teams who haven't been mentioned that are capable of beating Kentucky if they play at the top of their game and Kentucky doesn't play well. With that said, what type of team do you think gives Kentucky the most trouble?

 

 

Here are the the games which have been most in doubt, inversely ranked against the overall talent of the team faced:

 

#1. Columbia by 10 (UK did not have Ulis or Booker... 9-10 pt. game from 6:00-4:00 mark in 2H)

 

#2. Georgia by 11 (sans leading scorer Marcus Thornton... 6-7 pt. game from 4:00-2:30 mark in 2H... UK ends on 6-0 run)

 

#3. Texas A&M by 6 in 2 OT's (sans leading scorer Jalen Jones... A&M misses winner to end OT1)

 

#4. Providence by 20 (only broke open late... 6 pt. game with 10:00 left in 2H, 13 pt. game with 5:00 left in 2H)

 

#5. Vanderbilt by 8 (4 pt. game w/ 2:30 left... 6 pt. game w/ :40 left)

 

#6. Ole Miss by 3 in OT (would be higher but I think their shooting was an outlier... Ole Miss misses winner to end 2H)

 

#7. Texas by 12 (sans PG Isaiah Taylor, one of team's top scorers & leaders.. 5-9 point game from 9:00-:30 mark in 2H)

 

#8. North Carolina by 14 (9-12 pt. game from 10:00 to 8:00 mark in 2H... 12-14 pt. game from 8:00-5:00 mark in 2H)

 

#9. Louisville by 8 (UK had ~8 pt. lead most of the last 1/2 of 2H)

 

 

I think that of those, Ole Miss is the biggest outlier. They are a team who relies on putting up a lot of threes, and they shot the ball as well as they possibly could. I honestly don't see them shooting that well again for the rest of the season. Looking at the numbers:

 

UK game: 52.9% on 17 3 point attempts... 49.2% FG% on 59 shots... 12 baskets assisted... all against a team as good as UK is defensively...

 

Ole Miss Total Team Averages: 34.8% on 18 3 pt. attempts per game... 43.2% FG% on 58 shots per game... 13 assists per game...

 

Key Factors: Ole Miss' Non-Conference Schedule Ranks #225 in KenPom & Overall schedule currently #42 in RPI.

 

 

So, it's safe to say that if a team who relies on taking a lot of threes hits 50% of those, then they'll have a chance to beat UK. Alright, that's fair, but it's also much easier said than done. Of the teams I've watched this season, only Notre Dame really has a chance to even come close to sniffing that, and there's the problem that they have to match-up with Kentucky on the other end. Still, as I've said in the past (even in this thread) Notre Dame is a team that scares me because if both of us play our best OFFENSIVELY, then they have a fair chance.

 

 

What I find more interesting, however, is that one trait that most of the teams, especially those at the top of the list above, share is that they were both physical, yet still smart enough to limit mistakes. There's probably a strong correlation between their latter and their ability to slow the game down.

 

I would say that Columbia, Georgia, Providence, Texas, and Louisville were all teams that played physically against UK. One sign of how physical you are is usually your work on the boards. In those games listed above, the rebounding margin in those games was:

 

Georgia 36, UK 24

UK 33, Vandy 30

UK 53, Texas A&M 52

Ole Miss 34, UK 32

UK 46, Louisville 33 (but Louisville turned UK over 19 times & had 10 steals)

North Carolina 31, UK 24

UK 41, Columbia 28

Texas 42, UK 31

UK 33, Providence 29

 

IMO, just as much as you need to shoot well against UK, staying within reach or exceeding their work on the glass is just as important as any other factor.

 

Accordingly, I'm going to adjust my position and give Virginia a better chance of beating UK than I'd thought they'd have originally. If rebounding margin is the key, then you would have to think that the numbers would at least need some adjustment for pace of play, as well as some adjustments for the rebounding prowess of their opponents to get a more accurate picture, but I thought it was something worth bringing up.

 

I watched a full Virginia game again a second time when they played UNC, I thought they looked better offensively and that they could do some things to hurt UK on the glass. They block out well as a team, and while they don't send a lot of bodies to the offensive glass if it means letting someone have an opportunity to run out on them, they still pull down 10.76 Off Rebs. per game (ranks 172nd) compared to UK's 13.18 (ranks 30th). UVA averages 26.7 Def. Rebs. per game (ranks 25th), which tops UK's 25.36 (ranks 76th).

 

What's important to keep in mind with these numbers though is the pace of play. Virginia plays much slower, yet still pulls down nearly as many boards as UK. Virginia is currently 5th in the nation in rebounding margin, averaging 37.4 rebounds per game while holding opponents to 28, out-rebounding teams by an average margin of around 9.5 boards per game. Kentucky is currently 20th, averaging 38.5 rebounds per game while holding opponents to 31.8 rebounds per, out-rebounding teams by a 6.8 rebounds per game margin.

 

 

 

Other notable teams ranked by rebounding margin:

 

#2 Texas (10.70)

#3 Baylor (10)

#4 UNC (9.5)

#6 Michigan State (8.9)

#14 Gonzaga (8.1)

#17 Arizona (7.5)

#18 Duke (6.9)

#24 Wisconsin (6.1)

#26 Utah (6)

#30 Wichita St. (5.8)

#34 Kansas (5.5)

#62 Louisville (3.1)

#108 Villanova (2.8)

#110 Notre Dame (2.6)

#128 Iowa St. (2.1)

UK's woes on the offense end is what people need to worry about. You are going to play games when teams just make shots - bank shots, crazy put backs, one kid going off - it happens and is going to happen against UK more often than not.

Kentucky is not a perfect team. They will lose a game or two so just be ready for it. They are also continually working on fixing problems so just hope they are playing their best basketball in a few weeks.

 

 

So, it's safe to say that if a team who relies on taking a lot of threes hits 50% of those, then they'll have a chance to beat UK. Alright, that's fair, but it's also much easier said than done. Of the teams I've watched this season, only Notre Dame really has a chance to even come close to sniffing that, and there's the problem that they have to match-up with Kentucky on the other end. Still, as I've said in the past (even in this thread) Notre Dame is a team that scares me because if both of us play our best OFFENSIVELY, then they have a fair chance.

 

 

 

I agree that a 3 point shooting team is the one that has the best chance to beat UK. I say look out for Villanova. Here are top tier programs with where they rank in 3 pont shooting and their 3 point percentage:

 

4 Indiana ..... 41.1

9 Gonzaga ..... 40.3

13 Utah ..... 40.0

14 Boise St. ..... 40.0

17 Kansas ..... 39.7

22 Notre Dame ..... 39.4

23 Michigan St. ..... 39.3

33 Villanova ..... 38.9

37 Duke ..... 38.7

39 BYU ..... 38.7

40 Ohio St. ..... 38.6

41 Baylor ..... 38.5

47 Vanderbilt ..... 38.3

48 Minnesota ..... 38.3

I agree that a 3 point shooting team is the one that has the best chance to beat UK. I say look out for Villanova. Here are top tier programs with where they rank in 3 pont shooting and their 3 point percentage:

 

4 Indiana ..... 41.1

9 Gonzaga ..... 40.3

13 Utah ..... 40.0

14 Boise St. ..... 40.0

17 Kansas ..... 39.7

22 Notre Dame ..... 39.4

23 Michigan St. ..... 39.3

33 Villanova ..... 38.9

37 Duke ..... 38.7

39 BYU ..... 38.7

40 Ohio St. ..... 38.6

41 Baylor ..... 38.5

47 Vanderbilt ..... 38.3

48 Minnesota ..... 38.3

 

Notre Dame is a notch below those, but at the clip they take them, shooting just a few percentage points below is pretty impressive.

 

Maybe I've caught Nova on some bad nights (I think some of the few times I've seen them haven't been their best, and one was one of their worst performances of the year), but I wasn't really impressed.

Will be very happy to be wrong about my prediction here Post Number 28. A few of the teams I had up there who are still left: 1. Notre Dame, 2. Louisville, Wisconsin.