The improvement in the US economy has happened in spite of Obama's efforts. The Dow has improved in part that interest rates are so low that investors have gone to stocks for investments. While there has been some improvement in jobs creation, a good part of the unemployment rate going down is due to people who have given up looking for work. A lot of jobs have been created in the oil and gas industries despite of Obama's dislike for these industries. Most of the new jobs have been created in states like Texas,the Dakotas, Ohio and others using programs that Obama also dislikes.

 

The GDP is down because the people demanded something be done. The sequester helped, the winding down of some of Obama's programs and partly because of the very slow improvement of the economy. To be honest I cannot believe that consumer is 78%. While the economy is better, it just does not seem to be that good, unless many are willing to pull out the credit cards. Maybe things just seem better compared to the past few years and people want to be optimistic.

 

So basically nothing that can be looked at as positive during the Obama Administration can be credited to him? Got it. :lol2:

 

As for the bolded, how does that improve the unemployment rate? Looking or not, the people still wouldn't have jobs...

So basically nothing that can be looked at as positive during the Obama Administration can be credited to him? Got it. :lol2:

 

As for the bolded, how does that improve the unemployment rate? Looking or not, the people still wouldn't have jobs...

 

People who move out the category of "looking for work" into the group of "not looking for a job" aren't counted in unemployment numbers.

People who move out the category of "looking for work" into the group of "not looking for a job" aren't counted in unemployment numbers.

 

Gotcha. Didn't know that. Seems silly.

Gotcha. Didn't know that. Seems silly.

 

Anything to keep that number low.

 

Fudging the data is a time-honored tradition among statisticians.

I'm not sure what it tells us. I just know that it is being touted as an "Obama is doing a good job" look at the numbers and while I am admittedly pro-Obama I'm sure there is another side of the story concerning those numbers. I came here for that side of the story.

 

Ok. Obviously there are some numbers that are much better than January 2009, no way to dispute that or discredit it. We all should be glad for that. I am.

People who move out the category of "looking for work" into the group of "not looking for a job" aren't counted in unemployment numbers.

 

Been a fair number of people who have gone onto the disability rolls as their unemployment expired. Can't remember the numbers but it's increased pretty significantly compared to historical levels.

I am not sure where the GDP of 4.1% came from but the annual GDP rate (not just one quarter) has been around 2%.

 

A one quarter spike of a 4% GDP is not really notable progress. Annual GDP used to be around 4% consistently for the entire year - not just one quarter.

 

For historical context:

 

US GDP Growth At +2.4% In Second Estimate For Q1 2013 - Floating Path

 

So GDP has barely crept to be the lower range of what used to be normal. It did not 'rebound' with a higher than average bounce after most recessions.

 

Here is a comparison of this recovery with other post-war recessions recoveries:

 

Quarterly Update: The U.S. Economic Recovery in Historical Context - Council on Foreign Relations

 

 

Disclaimer - I believe Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for economic stats.

Been a fair number of people who have gone onto the disability rolls as their unemployment expired. Can't remember the numbers but it's increased pretty significantly compared to historical levels.

 

Believe that!!!!! I've never seen the mad rush for disability like I am witnessing now.

Anything to keep that number low.

 

Fudging the data is a time-honored tradition among statisticians.

 

They are basically doing the equivalent of 'writing off' people as 'discouraged'. At over 700K a month - that's a lot of 'discouraged' workers.

 

Workforce Participation at 36-Year Low as Jobs Climb - Bloomberg

 

There were 783,000 of these so-called discouraged workers in April, compared with 835,000 a year earlier.

The stock market rise is obviously real.

 

It is profit driven though, not revenue driven.

 

In the tech area HP announced that they missed expectations. They reported 1% lower revenue from a year ago. And they announced they would increase their plans for layoffs in 2014 from 34K to around 50K. Their current employment base is 314K. So here in 2014 they plan to lay off around 15% of their workforce or 1 in 7 workers.

 

Cisco beat expectations this quarter. And that sounds great and the street usually praises that with higher stock price. But what were the expectations - YTY revenue that was 1 to 3% LESS than in 2013. Cisco came in 'only' 0.5% down in revenue. So a high tech company is celebrated for negative revenue 'growth' (i.e. lessening revenue) YTY. They reported EPS of .51. The EPS outlook was .48. So they beat that outlook. But what was EPS YTY - .51 in 2013 and .51 in 2014 same quarter. So flat. So the street praises a high profile, high tech company that: a) is losing revenue and b) not growing its profit at all.

 

The majority of positive headlines on public companies is a 'profit story' not a 'revenue (i.e. GROWTH) story'. Companies will play up or play down either depending on the situation but one of this better be 'good news' to satisfy the Wall Street wolves. To make the profit number in a stagnant revenue environment means cutting cost. The easiest cost to cut is humans. So people have been bearing the brunt of this stock market run up.

 

Wall Street (investors/bankers and especially TBTF banks) wants 'good news' so that its politically acceptable to end QE. They want to raise interest rates in the up coming bond sales (how the US Treasury funds debt). So everyone in politics and in the investment world is hyping the profit numbers as good news. And this is how you have a 'jobless' recovery.

 

Disclaimer: Presidents get too much credit and too much blame.

 

But here - the administration is probably being pressured to play up the market since the Fed and TBTF banks want them to.

Believe that!!!!! I've never seen the mad rush for disability like I am witnessing now.

 

I just saw a headline somewhere that the disability fund will have serious issues as soon as 2016. Don't know the details as I didn't read the article.

^ I mention all of that not to be a poop head to my man PP92. I'm just presenting another side of the story.

 

I didn't vote for Obama & believe he pretty much sucks as a President. I did vote for Bush (twice) & believe he pretty much sucked as President too.

The only poop head is Obama

I am not sure where the GDP of 4.1% came from but the annual GDP rate (not just one quarter) has been around 2%.

 

A one quarter spike of a 4% GDP is not really notable progress. Annual GDP used to be around 4% consistently for the entire year - not just one quarter.

 

For historical context:

 

US GDP Growth At +2.4% In Second Estimate For Q1 2013 - Floating Path

 

So GDP has barely crept to be the lower range of what used to be normal. It did not 'rebound' with a higher than average bounce after most recessions.

 

Here is a comparison of this recovery with other post-war recessions recoveries:

 

Quarterly Update: The U.S. Economic Recovery in Historical Context - Council on Foreign Relations

 

 

Disclaimer - I believe Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for economic stats.

 

Update on GDP.

 

Revised number (the more accurate number) is now down 1% for 1Q2014.

 

U.S. GDP Dropped 1% In The First Quarter 2014, Down From First Estimate - Forbes

 

"New data shows the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, keeping pace with shifting expectations but down sharply from the prior — already disappointing — estimate.

 

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of real gross domestic product showed output produced in the U.S. declined at an annual rate of 1% in the first quarter of 2014. This is relative to fourth quarter 2013, when real GDP increased 2.6%.

 

The estimate is down significantly from BEA’s 0.1% advance estimate released last month and makes Q1 the U.S. economy’s worst quarter in three years. "

 

The article then goes on to blame the 'polar vortex' and notes that stocks did not take hit so investors had already factored it in. Here is some more interesting spin:

 

”Moreover,” Berger added, “the downward revision to Q1 inventories is a plus for Q2 GDP growth (i.e., forecasts for Q2 will likely get revised up).”

 

From WSJ:

 

U.S. GDP Contracted at 1% Pace in First Quarter - WSJ.com

 

Some more interesting spin in the WSJ opening sentence...

 

'...a serious - but likely brief - stumble...'

Good or bad, a capitalist system is prone to peaks and valleys. External influences such as a bank/insurance driven credit crisis can make the valleys deeper. Also, I include media and the herd effect. It proves the theory of "Rational Expectations". If everyone thinks the economy will get better (and stocks), it/they will get better...and visa versa. If the media prior to an election, as they did in both 1992 and 2008 bombard us with how bad things are, then they get bad. That is why I am only partly upset that the media does not expose our current inept administration and cabinet, because if they did, we will have another recession.

 

Governement spending is another factor that can cover up some of the factors:

 

1) Increased government spending has bolstered some areas such as road construction. Investment in infrastructure, if worthwhile and not boondogles is a good thing.

 

2) The DOW is up because interest rates are so low. People and funds have money they need invest, and equities are the reasonable option right now. Watch how fast it drops if risk-free interest rates (then the rest) go up. Although some would say silver.

 

3) The low interest rates have helped avoid a total housing collapse, but the favorable rates have been offset with more stringent qualification requirements. People who don't need loans can get them, those that do are having problems.

 

4) Food prices are soaring as a result of fuel and operating costs as well as environmental impacts.

 

I don't think this "recovery" has been a recovery for the lower middle to middle class at all due to high unemployment and higher fuel costs and higher food costs. The working class is worse off. The rich are poised to be richer still off the carcasses of those who haven't made it as they purchased and hold distressed foreclosed properties to be sold later.

 

Without a monumental screw-up, the economy would have recovered. The problem is, it would have recovered more with better economic leadership.