Carter was up 8 on Reagan in 1980.....in October....

 

Carter won a total of 5 states.

 

http://kbsmithwick.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/electoralcollege1980-large4.png

North Carolina is a heavy Romney lean.

 

He'll most likely carry the state, but it's still a state that's in play.

Fivethirtyeight has an interesting story talking about some polls not including cell phones and some that do. In those that do the President has a bigger lead.

 

In other words, if you don't know EXACTLY what the parameters are for a poll you're spitballing.

 

Obama's Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones - NYTimes.com

That's not really the case. He wins Ohio, Fl, NC, and Virginia and one of the others and he wins the presidency.

 

Every toss-up state is a state that Obama won last time, and Indiana won't be very close for Romney. Electoral count will be much closer.

 

Of course it'll be difficult. It's not easy to take down an incumbent.

 

You just named 5 that he has to win. He's losing OH bad, no chance in PA, MI, NM. I guess we'll see but I predict the only difference between this year and 08 will be that Romney will take back NC.

North Carolina is a heavy Romney lean.

 

It will be hard for the Chapel Hill gang to carry the state this time.

You just named 5 that he has to win. He's losing OH bad, no chance in PA, MI, NM. I guess we'll see but I predict the only difference between this year and 08 will be that Romney will take back NC.

Not Indiana?

And right, I was unaware 5/9 were "almost all."

If he only had to carry 4/9, would it be almost none?

I like fivethirtyeight.com .

 

They recently had Pres Obama's chance of winning at 80% but over the last week or so it has dropped.

 

Currently projecting about 300 electoral votes for the President.

 

A few key states can flip that.

 

Earlier in the summer, I made my prediction of 297-241 in favor of President Obama. I'm sticking by that until I see debates.

You just named 5 that he has to win. He's losing OH bad, no chance in PA, MI, NM. I guess we'll see but I predict the only difference between this year and 08 will be that Romney will take back NC.

 

Obama did not go to Ohio 5 times in one month because he was ahead.

 

PA is lost to Romney - the Philly gang will carry it for Obama. Notice that neither candidate is going there much.

 

MI is in play but the Repubs will likely push just enough to divert Dem resources to it. Wisconsin now must now be defended though by the Dems. It is at least 50/50.

Obama did not go to Ohio 5 times in one month because he was ahead.

 

PA is lost to Romney - the Philly gang will carry it for Obama. Notice that neither candidate is going there much.

 

MI is in play but the Repubs will likely push just enough to divert Dem resources to it. Wisconsin now must now be defended though by the Dems. It is at least 50/50.

 

Ohio, Florida, Virginia...those are the big 3 IMO. Couldn't agree with you more on Pennsylvania & Michigan. Although I think Wisconsin stays blue.

I was wrong with saying they were the most accurate in 2004 also, but it was pretty close.

 

They had one bad year in 2010, but other than that, they've been pretty dead on.

 

I don't understand the notion that Obama has this locked up. Piers Morgan was saying this last night and others in the media are perpetuating it.

 

It seems his "47%" comments won't kill him either. Gallup had a poll saying that 36% are less likely to vote for Romney because of the comments, while 20% are more likely due to the comments. It's likely that these two groups would have leaned their respectable ways regardless.

 

Gotta admit, those numbers surprise me. I was very angry about his comments, and I thought others would be also.

 

More often than not it's wishful thinking or bravado. However, if you look at the electoral map and the percentages of undecideds among likely voters in the swing states Romney has a very difficult road.

More often than not it's wishful thinking or bravado. However, if you look at the electoral map and the percentages of undecideds among likely voters in the swing states Romney has a very difficult road.

Absolutely agree. I expect Obama to win. However, it wouldn't shock me if Romney did.

Not Indiana?

And right, I was unaware 5/9 were "almost all."

If he only had to carry 4/9, would it be almost none?

 

Indiana is not a swing state boss. They are:

 

Ohio Obama +4.8

Virginia Obama +4.7

Florida Obama +2

New Hampshire Obama +2.3

Iowa Obama +.2

Colorado Obama +1.3

Wisconsin Obama +6.4

Michigan Obama +6.5

Pennsylvania Obama +8.3

Missouri Romney +7.3

Nevada Obama +3.3

North Carolina Romney 4.8

 

The final count will be 332 to 206.

Interesting video of election simulations ran back in February.

 

 

Looks accurate at end.

 

It give VA and Ohio to Romney and even WI.

 

But it shows NC and Florida to Obama.

 

At the end of the day its probably those 2 states that make the difference.

Indiana is not a swing state boss. They are:

 

Ohio Obama +4.8

Virginia Obama +4.7

Florida Obama +2

New Hampshire Obama +2.3

Iowa Obama +.2

Colorado Obama +1.3

Wisconsin Obama +6.4

Michigan Obama +6.5

Pennsylvania Obama +8.3

Missouri Romney +7.3

Nevada Obama +3.3

North Carolina Romney 4.8,

 

The final count will be 306 to 206.

Obama won Indiana. Boss.

And this could absolutely be the case. But almost every single one of those states are within statistical error.

Indiana is not a swing state boss. They are:

 

Ohio Obama +4.8

Virginia Obama +4.7

Florida Obama +2

New Hampshire Obama +2.3

Iowa Obama +.2

Colorado Obama +1.3

Wisconsin Obama +6.4

Michigan Obama +6.5

Pennsylvania Obama +8.3

Missouri Romney +7.3

Nevada Obama +3.3

North Carolina Romney 4.8

 

The final count will be 332 to 206.

 

You put way too much faith in the RealClearPolitics electoral map. Odds are some of those toss up states will flip since many of them are within a statistical tie. Not that it matters but I think Randy is pretty close.