DragonFire

Tournament will be played March 11th - March 14th at Rupp Arena. Draw is under way Region 2 vs. Region 11

I don't know about these "Wheel of Names" thing. I'm sure upgrading to that technology won't cause people to distrust the process.....

No offense, these guys need to stop the blathering and draw. It's 25 minutes into the show and I'm watching three old guys talk about who knows what.

Began towards the end of the 1990s in terms of refugee influx. It's always been there some, but that was when a surge of Bosnians were moving in. The western side of town is older, and one of the few places that some more modest housing has been built. Lots of apartments as well. Some really great communities have popped up with refugee populations, and many/most are within Warren Central's district. ESL population was definitely on the rise throughout the 2000-2010 timeline, but what changed the balance of the school was South Warren opening, and how the county chose to district that. They removed a portion of Rockfield Elementary's district from Warren Central's feeder area, which was by and large where their more middle class population came from, and heavily white. 83% of the students removed were AP students, to help understand the impact of that. Mind you, the entire reason South Warren was opened (or at least the primary goal expressed publicly) was to lower the enrollment of Greenwood. If the argument was ever that Rockfield was so close to South Warren that of course some of their students would go there, I'd counter (and have) that there are several places out near Greenwood where I can see the school and be standing in South Warren's district. The board member who represents the majority of Warren Central's district (and still does) lived in the area that was redistricted to South Warren, as well as his son (a linebacker) along with multiple anchor pieces of the original South Warren Spartan football program. Including a future Kentucky Wildcat as well as the school's initial quarterback. Draw your own conclusion on that, I sure have. If it isn't boys' basketball or boys' soccer, you can see exactly what that did to the school. The football team won 10, 11, 11, and 6 games in the first four years that South Warren was open (I.e. the first class to graduate that were freshmen when South opened). They've won 21 cumulatively in the 12 seasons since, and six of those came in the first year of that timeframe. The girls' basketball team made their last region tournament in that fourth year after South opened - they haven't won a district semifinal since and last year found tactful ways of canceling their entire last month of games and forfeited their district tournament game. The baseball team won the region the last year before South Warren opened - they have not advanced to a region tournament since, scored a total of seven runs in going winless last year, they've got five total wins post-COVID, and their head coaching job is basically the Harry Potter Defense Against the Dark Arts position because they've had five different coaches in the last six years. And so on. I've been over the topic before, particularly in football, that Warren Central is not blameless in how bad some things have gotten, but they were basically put in a position where they had to be flawless to even maintain these programs, and they were anything but. No room for error. I will say there are some nuanced reasons as to why Tim Riley left that I won't go into, but what was happening with how things were done with that districting, definitely part of it. The feeder system was decimated and the only reason the basketball team is doing what they're doing is because they made the absolute perfect hire in Will Unseld, and that has helped attract players and keep the ones they do have from the feeder system. Whenever he moves on, they'll be in the same boat if they don't make the right hire. I'll leave you with a data dump. Warren Central is 67% minority as of 2025 - it was 27.6% in 2010, the last year before South opened. They are considered 79.9% economically disadvantaged (that's actually down from 90.6% in 21-22). It's not a 1:1 exact comparison because the KDE report cards don't go back there so I had to go elsewhere for data, but they had 59% who were free and reduced lunch eligible in 2010. 22.9% are English learners. They didn't list data for English as a Second Language, which would encompass a greater number.

I was impressed that Lyon County won on that short of rest. And they also trailed 14-3 after the first quarter. That combination, I really thought they'd have lost it, but they surged ahead, managed to come back again after Caverna pulled back in front early in the fourth, and held on.

Game went to overtime, an exceedingly bad time to have one of those for whoever came out of the game. The finals against Caverna are also today, and those legs are probably going to be shot. Hard not to see Caverna as the favorite. Probably were anyway.

1) Warren Central (15-2) - No Games Previous Rank: 1 This Week: 2/3 vs. #3 South Warren, 2/6 vs. #5 Greenwood 2) Clinton County (18-3) - No Games Previous Rank: 2 This Week: 2/3 at Clay County, 2/5 vs. Somerset Christian, 2/7 vs. Somerset 3) South Warren (13-5) - No Games Previous Rank: 3 This Week: 2/3 at #1 Warren Central, 2/6 vs. #6 Bowling Green 4) Glasgow (11-9) - 1/31 59-74 L at Apollo Previous Rank: 4 This Week: 2/3 at Caverna, 2/6 at #10 Allen County-Scottsville 5) Greenwood (16-4) - No Games Previous Rank: 5 This Week: 2/2 vs. #6 Bowling Green, 2/3 at Owensboro Catholic, 2/6 at #1 Warren Central, 2/7 vs. Hopkins County Central (at Lyon County) 6) Bowling Green (11-9) - No Games Previous Rank: 6 This Week: 2/2 at #5 Greenwood, 2/3 at Owensboro, 2/6 at #3 South Warren, 2/7 at Caldwell County 7) Russell County (11-8) - No Games Previous Rank: 7 This Week: 2/3 vs. #15 Metcalfe County, 2/6 vs. #11 Monroe County, 2/7 vs. Corbin (at Berea) 8. Barren County (11-9) - 1/31 86-48 W at #18 Warren East Previous Rank: 8 This Week: 2/2 vs. #14 Cumberland County, 2/3 at #13 Franklin-Simpson, 2/6 vs. Ohio County, 2/7 at #10 Allen County-Scottsville 9) Logan County (12-9) - 1/30 50-47 W at #12 Russellville Previous Rank: 9 This Week: 2/3 vs. #18 Warren East, 2/6 at #16 Todd County Central 10) Allen County-Scottsville (7-10) - No Games Previous Rank: 10 This Week: 2/2 vs. Macon County (TN), 2/3 vs. Butler County, 2/6 vs. #4 Glasgow, 2/7 vs. #8 Barren County 11) Monroe County (10-8) - No Games Previous Rank: 11 This Week: 2/2 vs. Taylor County, 2/6 at #7 Russell County, 2/7 at Nelson County 12) Russellville (13-8) - 1/30 47-50 L #9 Logan County Previous Rank: 12 This Week: 2/2 at Hancock County, 2/6 at #13 Franklin-Simpson 13) Franklin-Simpson (6-10) - No Games Previous Rank: 13 This Week: 2/3 vs. #8 Barren County, 2/6 vs. #12 Russellville 14) Cumberland County (7-11) - No Games Previous Rank: 14 This Week: 2/2 at #8 Barren County, 2/6 at #15 Metcalfe County 15) Metcalfe County (9-10) - No Games Previous Rank: 15 This Week: 2/3 at #7 Russell County, 2/6 vs. #14 Cumberland County, 2/7 at Campbellsville 16) Todd County Central (5-15) - No Games Previous Rank: 16 This Week: 2/6 vs. #9 Logan County, 2/7 at #18 Warren East 17) Foundation Christian Academy (13-6) - 1/31 51-72 L at Christian Fellowship Previous Rank: 17 This Week: 2/3 vs. Hopkinsville Heritage, 2/7 vs. Whitesville Trinity 18) Warren East (1-20) - 1/31 48-86 L #8 Barren County Previous Rank: 18 This Week: 2/3 at #9 Logan County, 2/7 vs. #16 Todd County Central Notes: -Let's check in on the action last week: -There were only four games in total played by region teams last week, few of any real consequence. Barren County finished off Warren East's district slate with the Raiders going winless, but the district tournament matchups were already locked in for the 15th. Foundation Christian took one on the chin against Christian Fellowship, and Glasgow did the same in falling to Apollo. That left only Logan County at Russellville as a game of consequence. Amazingly, those two found a way to get in a game crosstown while somehow the Bowling Green schools could not do the same.... As described last week, Logan County is very much in the front runner position for the district, entering the game on Friday at 3-0 in district play with all others stuck at a single win. But it was Russellville that came out swinging, leading 14-9 at the quarter pole and extending it to 27-18 halfway. They still led by eight going into the final quarter, but that's when Logan County finally made their move. The Cougars scored more in the fourth than they did in the entire first half, and took their first lead on a Maliq Ford basket with 1:19 left, and a pair of free throws and missed shot at the buzzer secured a 50-47 win for Logan County. The win means Logan County needs just a single win in their final two district games to claim the #1 seed. They'll get first crack at that this week when they visit Todd County Central. Realistically, they've already got that top spot as Franklin-Simpson or Todd County Central would have to win out to catch them, and Logan County would have to lose both of those games. -With all the cancellations, Warren Central is down to five games left on their schedule. If that's all they end up playing, it will be their fewest game in a regular season since the 1970s, exempting the COVID year. It'll be interesting to see their response since they've been sitting at home for almost two weeks stewing on the Bowling Green loss. -A below the radar game that I'm keeping an eye on - Warren East will host Todd County Central on Saturday. I give East no realistic chance in any of their other games - they have managed to stay within single digits in a loss in only one game this year, and they're honestly lucky they got that win over Fort Campbell in December. East's worst record in program history was a 2-25 showing in 2009/2010, and they lost their final 16 games of that one (they ultimately lost 19 straight when paired with the start of the next season, the longest losing streak ever for the program). They've lost 14 in a row currently, and if they don't beat Todd County Central, I think it's all but certain that they will end up with both their longest losing streak ever and worst season ever. -The 14th District is still pretty wide open, but we should know a lot more in just over 48 hours time, and we'll know it all in less than a week. Bowling Green visits Greenwood for their remake tomorrow night (Monday), while Warren Central hosts South Warren on Tuesday. Then Warren Central hosts Greenwood on Friday and Bowling Green visits South Warren the same day. All big games, and at the moment, hard to say with any real certainty what happens. -The 16th District remains where it was a week ago, with Clinton County at the top, Metcalfe County all but locked into the bottom, and then several games to determine which way things go. Russell County meets Metcalfe County and Monroe County at home this week, and a win in each would lock them into the 2/3 seed. Cumberland County can just about do the same if they knock off Metcalfe County on the 6th. Russell County and Cumberland County were supposed to play last week, and at the moment, they don't have a rematch scheduled. It is possible that they won't have to play that game to determine anything. Technically, Russell County could win out (including a game over Clinton County) which would necessitate that game to decide whether there's a tie for #1. But if the more plausible scenario plays out - that Russell County beats Metcalfe and Monroe, falls to Clinton County, and Cumberland County beats Metcalfe County, then there'd be no need for the game at all. Clinton County would be 7-1, Russell County 4-3, Cumberland County 4-3, Monroe County 3-5, and Metcalfe County 1-7 - the matchups would all be set and the only thing that game would determine is who is #2 and who is #3.

A couple of them, I believe it is a matter of them having no idea what they’re getting into. May have viewed it as a stepping stone as well. It’s a challenging job that will take above normal effort to “fix”. A depleted talent pool often depletes further before kids even make it to the school. Part of a proper job is to make connections with families in the feeder system before middle school to try to get them to buy in before their eye wanders. That’s tough - there are two state title caliber programs in their own county borders, and another team (Greenwood) who has achieved remarkable consistency in winning, if not playoff success. Even Warren East gets shine that attracts players. Central cannot afford to have kids leave before middle school, during middle school, before the head coach really gets time with them in the building. Central needs a coach that understands that. (Not a direct shot at anyone in particular btw, but suffice it to say they’ve had multiple who did not understand that assignment and could not make inroads.) I don’t know that I would say the admin is part of a problem other than perhaps having made the wrong hires in some of these cycles. That goes back to Feggins, who was the wrong hire at a time they could not afford to do so. But I don’t think I’ve ever heard someone say they’re not getting proper support from admins. I do think they all absolutely stink at getting a proper schedule for the program, which is the fault of several people who have been in the building, but that’s as far as I’d go. There are legitimate options they have had that will stay and build the program. They are not always the most “qualified”. I believe greater weight needs to be given to that as a qualification. There’s a fantasy football saying that the best ability is availability. It doesn’t matter if Curt Cignetti himself took the job if he doesn’t stay longer than two years.

It’s the same thing, but I think of this game as less must win as I do must not lose. Kentucky cannot afford to drop games against teams they should beat. That loss to Mizzou still haunts.

Sounds like X going to move back to #1.

If you told me before the week that Kentucky was going to get a split, I'd have taken it. Even moreso if you told me it would be the Arkansas game they'd win. Of course, I don't know that I'd have wanted it quite so much if you told me Kentucky was going to get absolutely blasted by Vandy, but this was a strong bounceback. And good on them to maintain through all those technicals.

Well it missed your last part but Chandler comes up big!

Palpitations going....

I honestly didn't think that was a good technical on Arkansas either, but turnabout is fair play.

I'm a pessimist, but it's hard to see this going Kentucky's way now. I honestly don't even know for sure on Garrison's technical either. But the others for Kentucky, that's just awful. Even the Oweh one in the first half, I found that iffy.

I'm not one to talk about the officials, because it's such a cliche, but Kentucky is getting worked here.

Kentucky getting a horrendous whistle and now, they're at big risk of falling behind.

I didn't realize it was Shows. Well no wonder then.

Whistle happy now.

Ball don't lie....

He needs to be stronger in all facets. He has the effort there, and I know a lot of it is just being a freshman, but he badly needs to go up stronger with his opportunities.

Very pleasantly surprised early on.

I wonder if they double counted in their rating the loss for Warren Central to Bowling Green. Because they're 15-2, not 15-3, and it shows the loss twice on their Maxpreps schedule.

-I have to assume Nations Elite may have left Warren Central out, initially, because that is a gnarly edit of their name in that image. -As suspected, there's a change at the top this time, as Madison Central ascends to #1 in the majority of the rankings, with four of the seven outlets ranking them at the top. The other three polls all had them second. Daviess County shows up at #1 in two polls, and St. X remained #1 in one outlet. -Ironically, Daviess County was not voted #1 by any voter in the Elite 16 rankings. Madison Central garnered eight first place votes, St. X five, and Covington Catholic took the other three votes. CovCath was rated as highly as #2 by one outlet, but on average, they were the fourth ranked team by most. Moderately surprised the media voters did not elevate them above fourth. -We were a hair away from a consensus top five, as four teams were in the top five of ever single ranking. Madison Central, Daviess County, St. X, and Covington Catholic were in all top fives, while George Rogers Clark was in the top five of 6 out of 7, moving up to #6 in the media rankings, but just outside the top five. Male was given the nod there. -In a bit of a surprise, those four teams were not only the only consensus top five, but they were the only consensus top ten, as the spread was much more broad this week. In all, sixteen teams appeared in at least one top ten rank. Male was the only one that appeared in all but one top ten, as Jeffersontown and Warren Central appeared in all but two. -The ranking of Frederick Douglass and perhaps Warren Central as well is a bit of an indictment of the media voters. I'm not saying you've most definitely got to drop if you lose, but both teams took a loss to a rival that is well, well down the food chain. Frederick Douglass fell to Henry Clay 65-63 while Warren Central dropped an overtime contest 65-59 to Bowling Green. Warren Central fell one spot, swapping places with George Rogers Clark, while a few other polls dropped them a bit more - they ranked as low as 12th a week after not being ranked below 7th in any poll. But Frederick Douglass? The media kept them firmly at 8, exactly where they were the week before. They're the only ranking that has them in the top ten, with all others ranking them 13th or lower, and they're as low as 18 in one. -Last week I touched on North Oldham being the only team ranked in every poll without appearing in a top ten. As expected, the win over St. X catapulted them up the rankings, where they now are no lower than 17th in any, and in the top ten in four of the seven outlets. -McCracken county is ranked in the top ten of four out of seven outlets as well. As always, Kentucky High School Sports Zone remains belligerent in their unbelief, ranking them merely 25th. It's the only ranking McCracken has below 14th. But at least they're ranked - KYHSZ had them totally out a week ago. Unsurprisingly, their 18 rank disparity - rated as highly as 7th but as low as 25th - is the highest among all teams ranked by each outlet. Bryan Station is the only other team even close, with 15 spots separating their somewhat ludicrously high ranking of 9th (by, well, whattya know, Kentucky High School Sports Zone) and their 22nd rating by both Nations Elite and Martin Media. -Playing the part of McCracken this week - highly rated by at least one but totally unranked by others - is Lexington Catholic. Now, Martin Media is an 11th Region-based "outlet", so I suppose that accounts for their extreme outlier rank of 8th. They did absolutely stamp North Hardin the last time they played a game, blowing them out 81-56. Of course, that was 8 days after going to double OT with 8-9 Tates Creek, that merely three days after falling to 11-9 Henry County. Martin had them 13th when he released his last ranking two weeks ago, so the win over North Hardin makes some sense in rising up the rankings, but it should also be noted that he doesn't rank North Hardin and in fact, no outlet has ranked North Hardin at any point. So it becomes harder to justify the raise. That said, the recruiting service rankers (Next Up Recruits and NextGen Prospects) both elected to have LexCath unranked at all. Next Up Recruits is consistent, they weren't ranked last week by that outlet either. But NextGen Prospects had them THIRTEENTH. From 13 to unranked following a 25 point win? Nah, that ain't it. -Speaking of wild swings from NextGen Prospects, I noted last week that they had J-Town ludicrously low at 25th given that they didn't raise them at all after beating North Oldham by 25. I guess they noticed that North Oldham beat X and was ranked 10 spots higher last week, because Jeffersontown has now skyrocketed all the way to 6th. Good to admit when you're wrong, I suppose, but man, what a ride. -Russell was the only team to return to the ranks this week, coming back after a week absence. Now, some of that was because Martin Media released a ranking again. They were the only team to rank Russell two weeks ago, and in the outlet's absence from a ranking last week, they fell out. But KSR joins Martin Media in ranking Russell this week, so it feels authentic. -Danville Christian's return to the ranks proved to be a one-week wonder, as they slide out following a loss to Taylor County. Evangel Christian also exits after falling to Clinton County in the All A Classic, as does Pikeville, who fell to Paintsville 70-62 on Friday. -We had seven unicorns this week (teams rated in only a single poll) - broken record, but most of them are from KYHSZ. Johnson Central (KYHSZ 19), Martin County (Martin Media 20), Newport (KYHSZ 20), Clinton County (KYHSZ 22), Covington Holy Cross (Media 23), Montgomery County (KYHSZ 23), and Woodford County (Martin Media 25). -Maybe Montgomery County will finally get a chance to justify their rank, with games against George Rogers Clark and Ashland this weekend (allegedly). If those get played, and they lose, man, I almost still want to see them ranked next week so I can keep railing against it. They did just get Sears eligible, so maybe they'll get a better chance now. -Only two reverse unicorns this week (rated in all but one poll), as Grayson County (unranked Media) and Ashland (Nations Elite) just missing consensus. Grayson County was as high as 14 in one poll, with Ashland climbing as high as 15. It's a bit surprising to see either on the outside anywhere. -17 teams were consensus ranked this week: Madison Central Daviess County St. X Covington Catholic George Rogers Clark Male Jeffersontown Warren Central North Laurel North Oldham Ballard McCracken County Boyd County Butler Frederick Douglass Bell County Bryan Station -Checking in on the Massey Ratings, they've got Covington Catholic ranked #1, and pretty impressively have them #1 in rating, power, offense, and defense. Yeah, that'll hunt. -The Massey is notably lower on Daviess County (6th vs. consensus outlet ranking of 2nd). Otherwise, it's pretty close to the outlets. Among the top ten teams in the Massey (CovCath, St. X, Madison Central, GRC, Warren Central, Daviess County, Male, North Oldham, Ballard, and Jeffersontown), only Ballard is outside the average top ten from the outlet rankings, where they are on average 11th. The outlets like North Laurel more, where they are narrowly averaging 10th, while the Massey has them 13th. -Lloyd Memorial remains the Massey outlier, coming in at 20th in their ranks. They are not now, nor have they been at any point, rated in the top 25 by an outlet ranking. Trinity is in the same boat, rated 23rd by Massey but never being ranked anywhere else. Trinity's schedule has obviously been brutal, but it is odd to see a 6-8 team rated that highly by Massey.