DragonFire

First the Media poll: 1. Great Crossing (16 FPV - Up 6 from last week) 2. Lexington Catholic [Up 1] 3. Trinity [Up 1] 4. Lyon County [Down 2] 5. Newport [Up 1] 6. Covington Catholic [Down 2] 7. St. Xavier 8. Harlan County 9. Bowling Green 10. Manual [Up 1] T-11. Evangel Christian [Down 1] T-11. George Rogers Clark [Up 1] 13. North Oldham [Up 1] 14. Bryan Station [Down 1] 15. Woodford County Others receiving votes: DeSales 15, Frederick Douglass 12, Cooper 6, Boyd County 1, Henry Clay 1, Male 1. *Great Crossing became a unanimous selection at #1 for the first time following Lyon County's losses. Lexington Catholic may have had a legitimate shot at #1 if they'd been able to hold on in their head to head with Great Crossing. *Same 15 teams in the top 15 as there were a week ago. Bryan Station probably held on due to their solid win over Frederick Douglass.

My two least favorite teams won tonight - Florida, and the team that was playing Kentucky. It’s always a dark day when Florida wins a game. FOUL. It’s all you had to do! ONE. JOB.

11 days ago this team was so fun.

Ballgame.

I’m dying inside. Man I hate Florida. Don’t do this you dummies.

You foul in that spot. You ALWAYS foul in that spot. I cannot believe they messed that up.

Talk to your kids about fouling when up three.

The Colonels get the win on senior night to end a five game losing streak. Bateman led all scorers with 30, more than half of Christian County's points. Kade Unseld did not play for Warren Central, as they had three in double figures - Starks (17), Bratton (13), and Hammer (12). Warren Central led most of the game, taking a lead midway through the second quarter after an 8-0 run, which they would not relinquish until midway through the fourth quarter. Missed layups were the bane of the Dragons, as they missed numerous opportunities to put more distance between them and Christian County. The Colonels used an 8-2 run to take their largest lead at 57-52 with just under two minutes left, but would not score again. A pair of Dragon baskets trimmed the lead to 57-56, and Central forced a turnover with 15 seconds left to have the ball and a chance to win. They would not get a shot on that possession, turning it over with just under 4 seconds left and fouling to send the Colonels to the line. But both free throws were missed - the second actually stayed on the back of the rim to force a jump ball, giving possession to the Dragons with no time running. They found Starks at midcourt on the ensuing inbound, and he drove to the three point line to attempt a game-winning shot, but was fouled. Apparently, it was not ruled on the attempt, because only two foul shots were granted (despite the foul not being called until he was going up). 0.5 remained. Starks' first attempt was off the front iron. With a loud crowd making noise, his second shot hit the back iron, came back down on the front iron, rolling to the edge, and off. The Colonels rebounded, and time expired. While I'm confident Central would have won had Unseld played, it was nonetheless a bad loss IMO. I felt it was easily their worst loss since the return of most of the team January 1, so grading on that curve, I'd call it their worst loss of the year. It comes as they begin a tougher stretch on the schedule, with games against Elizabethtown, Butler County, Bowling Green, and Adair County in the next week and a half.

The overall enrollment numbers for 2023-24 are out, but they haven't published the male only enrollments yet. But Central grew in enrollment by around 70 students. Considering they were already in-line for 5A the last alignment, I imagine it cinches that they'll be 5A starting in 2025. South Warren will at least be up in 6A, so that'll help.

I'm fairly certain he'll apply. And I also hope he gets it.

Nothing has been announced that I've seen. Before COVID, the drawing typically took place around the conclusion of the All A, but recently, they've usually held the drawing towards the end of the second week of February. So we're probably still a couple of weeks away.

Regarding the decision to go for it: -Badgley was merely 2/4 from that distance over past two seasons. -He was 7/15 from that range in his career (46-48 yards) -He had attempted zero kicks outside of a dome this season. -Lions were converting 4th and 3 or less at an 83% rate. -On the first one, the one that people seem to be focusing on, Josh Reynolds flat dropped the ball. Dan Campbell absolutely made the correct choice given those factors, particularly on the first attempt. They had a two score lead midway through the third quarter. Yes, pushing to a three score lead would have been big but the analytics support that the correct choice was made, and they did everything right there with the exception of Josh Reynolds executing - he just dropped the pass. What happened after - also on the players - was far worse. The dropped INT that went off his facemask that Aiyuk caught for a bomb, setting up a touchdown. Gibbs fumbling on the first play after to give the ball right back. And then after that led to a touchdown, Josh Reynolds with another egregious drop, this time on a third down conversion that he would have had easily, leading to another three and out. Now, I probably would have taken the risk and tried the field goal the second time, as at that point they were down three and it would have been an attempt to tie the game, but it is worth noting that the metrics about kick vs. go for it had not changed in that situation either. I think each of those choices were defensible, and if his players had executed properly on at least the first one, I think we have an entirely different conversation today.

I could not be more for the 49ers. It’s no offense to KC, but I just would rather see a team win that hasn’t in a while. I had to do a double take when I realized the Niners haven’t won it all since 1995.

1) Bowling Green (18-4) - 1/23 52-47 W at #2 Warren Central, 1/26 64-38 W at #6 South Warren Previous Rank: 1 This Week: 1/30 vs. Ohio County, 2/2 at #9 Greenwood 2) Warren Central (7-6) - 1/23 47-52 L #1 Bowling Green, 1/26 76-45 W #8 Greenwood Previous Rank: 2 This Week: 1/29 at Christian County, 2/2 vs. #6 South Warren, 2/3 vs. Elizabethtown 3) Russell County (9-9) - 1/22 63-61 W at #9 Cumberland County, 1/23 58-63 L Green County, 1/26 51-54 L at Mercer County Previous Rank: 3 This Week: 1/30 vs. #14 Metcalfe County, 2/2 vs. #12 Monroe County 4) Warren East (12-6) - 1/23 64-62 W at #12 Glasgow, 1/25 64-63 W Ohio County, 1/26 71-52 W at #17 Allen County-Scottsville Previous Rank: 5 This Week: 1/30 at #16 Russellville, 2/2 vs. #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/3 at Caverna 5) Clinton County (11-9) - 1/25 61-39 W Raceland (at Corbin Arena), 1/26 32-50 L Murray (at Corbin Arena) Previous Rank: 7 This Week: 1/30 at #12 Monroe County, 2/1 at #11 Glasgow, 2/3 vs. Hopkins County Central 6) South Warren (8-8) - 1/22 71-62 OT W at #8 Greenwood, 1/26 38-64 L #1 Bowling Green Previous Rank: 6 This Week: 1/30 vs. #13 Logan County, 2/2 at #2 Warren Central 7) Barren County (13-6) - 1/22 88-60 W Bluegrass Blazers, 1/23 64-56 W #15 Russellville, 1/26 43-58 L at #12 Glasgow, 1/27 58-59 2OT L at #10 Monroe County Previous Rank: 4 This Week: 1/30 vs. #9 Greenwood, 2/3 vs. Butler County (at Owensboro Sports Center) 8. Franklin-Simpson (10-7) - 1/22 77-53 W at #15 Russellville, 1/23 71-38 W at #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 1/26 66-32 W #14 Todd County Central Previous Rank: 11 This Week: 1/29 vs. #13 Logan County, 1/30 at Butler County, 2/2 vs. #16 Russellville 9) Greenwood (10-11) - 1/22 62-71 OT L #6 South Warren, 1/23 64-60 W at #13 Logan County, 1/26 45-76 L at #2 Warren Central Previous Rank: 8 This Week: 1/30 at #7 Barren County, 2/2 vs. #1 Bowling Green 10) Cumberland County (10-9) - 1/22 61-63 L #3 Russell County Previous Rank: 9 This Week: 1/30 at #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/2 at #14 Metcalfe County, 2/3 vs. Jackson County (TN) 11) Glasgow (6-10) - 1/23 62-64 L #5 Warren East, 1/26 58-43 W #4 Barren County Previous Rank: 12 This Week: 1/30 at Caverna, 2/1 vs. #5 Clinton County 12) Monroe County (12-8) - 1/22 68-72 L Hart County, 1/25 68-70 2OT L at #16 Metcalfe County, 1/27 59-58 2OT W #4 Barren County Previous Rank: 10 This Week: 1/30 vs. #5 Clinton County, 2/2 at #3 Russell County 13) Logan County (10-8) - 1/23 60-64 L #8 Greenwood, 1/26 58-55 W at #15 Russellville Previous Rank: 13 This Week: 1/29 at #8 Franklin-Simpson, 1/30 at #6 South Warren, 2/2 at #15 Todd County Central, 2/3 vs. #17 Allen County-Scottsville 14) Metcalfe County (7-11) - 1/25 70-68 2OT W #10 Monroe County, 1/27 72-50 W at #15 Russellville Previous Rank: 16 This Week: 1/30 at #3 Russell County, 2/2 vs. #10 Cumberland County, 2/3 at Campbellsville 15) Todd County Central (8-10) - 1/26 32-66 L at #11 Franklin-Simpson Previous Rank: 14 This Week: 1/30 vs. East Robertson (TN), 2/2 vs. #13 Logan County, 2/3 vs. McCracken County (at Graves County) 16) Russellville (3-18) - 1/22 53-77 L #11 Franklin-Simpson, 1/23 56-64 L at #4 Barren County, 1/26 55-58 L #13 Logan County, 1/27 50-72 L #16 Metcalfe County Previous Rank: 15 This Week: 1/30 vs. #4 Warren East, 2/2 at #8 Franklin-Simpson 17) Allen County-Scottsville (2-17) - 1/23 38-71 L #11 Franklin-Simpson, 1/26 52-71 L #5 Warren East, 1/27 32-61 L at Apollo Previous Rank: 17 This Week: 1/30 vs. #10 Cumberland County, 2/2 at #4 Warren East, 2/3 at #13 Logan County 18) Foundation Christian Academy (8-8) - 1/26 27-67 L Somerset Christian, 1/27 51-71 L Christian Fellowship, 61-57 W Portland Christian Previous Rank: 18 This Week: 1/29 at Metro Nashville (TN), 1/30 vs. Hendersonville Christian Academy (TN), 2/1 vs. Dayspring Academy (TN) Notes -The biggest game of the week was obviously #1 Bowling Green visiting #2 Warren Central. For full details on that one, visit the postgame thread: But the TL/DR of it is that Warren Central proved this new edition could compete with the Purples, while the Purples showed that even in the face of most circumstances going against them, they are still the best team and they still won. The result makes it very, very likely that Bowling Green will have the #1 seed in the district, as even if Warren Central splits with them, the secondary tiebreaker is RPI, where Bowling Green may already have an insurmountable lead. Really, the only impact of that would be that Warren Central will likely have to be the one to play host South Warren in the district tournament. -Russell County visited Cumberland County in their first district matchup of the year. The two teams entered unbeaten in district play, and it was a back and forth affair. Ultimately, Russell County overcame a six point deficit entering the fourth quarter to take home a 63-61 win, and seize command of the district. Crucially, only one of their four remaining district contests is on the road. The Lakers have only played three games at home to date, going 2-1 in those, including 2-0 against region opponents. They also remain unbeaten against region opponents. As for the game itself, the Lakers had tremendous balance, with four scorers in double digits, led by Owen Loy and Trace Stringer, both of whom had 16 points. Cerrato had 13, and Shearer added 10. They won the game at the line, where they went 17/21, helping them to overcome a Panther team that shot better from the field and outrebounded them 29-18. Cumberland County was led by Zachery Harwood's 19 points and Braden Perdue's 15. -The important postseason results on the week were positive for Barren County, but they had a very weird end to the week. After a stretch of 7 wins in 8 games with the lone loss coming at Warren Central, out of nowhere the Trojans dropped a 58-43 decision at Glasgow. Barren County had won 10 in a row in the series, including a 68-55 win earlier this year. Their 43 points in this game were their lowest of the year, and least since scoring only 38 in a game in December 2022. They shot only 30% from the floor and 22.7% from three in the game, and also critically, went 8/20 from the free throw line. That was bad enough, but they followed it with a double overtime loss to Monroe County the following night. Perhaps, they let a bad performance beat them twice, but those were two very, very unexpected results. -South Warren and Greenwood had an entertaining finish to their game on Monday night, in a game that had a bit of "who really wants to win this" vibe. There were a lot of lead changes during the game, but the Spartans appeared to have seized control, holding a six point lead with 2:45 left in the game following a 12-2 run. Greenwood answered with a run that seemed decisive, outscoring the Spartans 11-2 to take a 58-55 lead with only 9.4 left. After advancing to the frontcourt, South Warren had an inbounds from the sideline with just over 1 second remaining. The Gators decided not to try to foul, and the Spartans hit a crosscourt pass for a wide open three that was buried. The overtime was all South Warren, winning 71-62. -Turning to the district races overall, in the 13th, Franklin-Simpson hosts Logan County this week in a meeting of two 3-0 teams. The winner won't wrap anything up, but will be in strong position for the top seed. They have games against Russellville and Todd County Central (respectively) to end the week before what will be the deciding game in all likelihood on February 9th. Todd County Central is currently in line for the #3 seed at 1-3, with Russellville winless in district play at 0-4. As mentioned previously, Bowling Green took the lead in the 14th, checking in at 4-0 in district play with games at Greenwood (0-4) and hosting Warren Central (3-1) still to go. Only Bowling Green or Warren Central could grab the top seed, while South Warren (1-3) could climb as high as #2, with Greenwood's ceiling at #3. Warren Central can be no lower than #3, and Bowling Green no lower than #2. Realistically, the district is probably going to finish exactly as it is now (Bowling Green, Warren Central, South Warren, Greenwood, in that order). The 15th is all but locked in. Barren County (4-1) officially wrapped up the top seed this week despite the loss to Glasgow (2-3), as both Glasgow and AC/S (0-3) have three losses in district play (so can't catch their 4 win total) and Warren East (3-2) can do no better than 4-2, and lost both games to Barren County, meaning they'd lose the tiebreaker. Warren East cannot fall below the 3 seed due to Glasgow and AC/S still having a game against each other, so really the only thing left to determine is who their opponent would be in the 2/3 game. If AC/S were to win out (winning at Warren East on Friday, followed by a repeat win over Barren County the following Monday and finally winning at Glasgow on 2/9), they'd pass Glasgow for the #3 seed. If they don't win out, they can force it to a random draw by beating both Barren County and Glasgow. The two-way tiebreaker after head to head is record against the top seed in the district and then moving down in order, exempting top teams. That means AC/S would have to beat Glasgow (as any tying scenario requires that) and Barren County (as Glasgow already has a win over them - if AC/S doesn't beat Barren County it would mean a sweep, and therefore Glasgow would get the 3 seed. Honestly, it's very likely AC/S loses all three games, but for at least a week, there will be doubt about the final order. The 16th, as per usual, is chaos. Russell County (4-0) could still technically fall as far as 4th. Metcalfe County (1-5) cannot rise above 3rd, and it would require them to win out and have either Cumberland County (3-1) or Clinton County (3-2) lose out to make that scenario possible - they can't both lose out as they still have a game remaining against each other. In all likelihood, they'll be in the 4/5 "play-in" game. Monroe County (1-4) is currently in line for that as well. They can not rise higher than the 2 seed due to the combination of games that the other teams play. We should gain more clarity for this district after the coming week - Metcalfe County's final two district games are this week, and there are two other matchups this week as well.

Honestly if what had been put out there was true, they had to do that. There's no doubt it hurts Mason County's talent, but tolerating that conduct exposes the program to risk they simply could not absorb. That's how you lose coaches, players, supporters, etc. No 1-2 players are above the team.

A mere week ago this was one of the most fun Kentucky teams ever to watch. Their offense straight up vanished in the week since.

Less depth to the post this week, as two of the five outlets did not release rankings, and there was very little change in the polls, reflecting the few games that were played. *I did find it interesting that Evangel Christian bumped back up two spots in the media poll while Manual and George Rogers Clark each dropped one. The pollsters must have liked what they saw in their imaginations, because none of those teams played a single game. *Also in the media poll, Lyon County had lost a first place vote to Great Crossing for each of the last two weeks, and suddenly picks one back up after not playing while Great Crossing blew the doors off of Western Hills and then beat Male. I guess the margin over Male (2) was considered sufficient enough to ding them. Kinda just felt like this would have been a week to leave the ranks alone!

First the media poll: 1. Great Crossing (10 FPV - down 1 from last week) 2. Lyon County (6 FPV - up 1 from last week) 3. Lexington Catholic T-4. Trinity T-4. Covington Catholic [Up 1] 6. Newport 7. St. X 8. Harlan County 9. Bowling Green 10. Evangel Christian [Up 2] 11. Manual [Down 1] 12. George Rogers Clark [Down 1] 13. Bryan Station 14. North Oldham 15. Woodford County [Down 1] Others receiving votes: Male 23, Frederick Douglass 20, DeSales 18, Henry Clay 11, Boyd County 5, Breathitt County 4, Corbin 2, Ashland Blazer 1, Fleming County 1, Hazard 1.

In talking about Sherrill's 400th win, it's really staggering how good he has been at Bowling Green. -Winningest head coach in the school's history -.777 win percentage is also best in the school's history - his two separate tenures have a better win percentage than any other coach had -Most region titles in the school's history (7 - Doug Smith is second with 3) -Only three times in his tenure have the Purples not made at least the region title game, and two of those were his first two years at the school when they were rebuilding -Not coincidentally, those three years are the only times his teams haven't hit 20 wins, and the current edition is soon to join the others (probably in winning 20 and making the region final+) -The only 30 win seasons for the program have come under Sherrill - three times in his tenure -And of course, also led them for the only state title for the team An incredible run, and who knows how much higher the ceiling goes? I don't see any signs of slowing.

It would have just been in the fourth quarter for those fouls with the new rules - I don't remember the final quarter being as iffy in the calls or no-calls. I think the issue for Central was that they still played a bit of that final stretch in a defensive set that was to prevent good shots, and not aggressively going for the ball. When Bowling Green got the lead and the ball, I knew the air was coming out of it. The Purples have always done a fantastic job of protecting leads with the ball when it is time to go to the line. Central should have been very aggressively going for steals from the jump at that point, using the lack of fouls to their advantage. If you create contact and get the steal and they don't blow the whistle, great. If you do the same and they do, well, you needed to commit fouls anyway. Bowling Green not going to the line until 20 seconds were left was pretty much worst case scenario. There's no 1-and-1 to make that work anymore.

Man, I really thought Banks had to have had at least 20. Still, he was the one who really pulled them through offensively. Very impressive game.

I would be surprised if the game at Bowling Green isn't a double digit win. It is difficult to win at Bowling Green under any circumstance, and I expect the Purples will want to relieve themselves of some frustration. Of the remaining two expected after that, I would expect the district final to be a higher potential to be lopsided. Those have typically not gone Central's way - the last two years excepted - and both teams tend to just let the talent figure it out in a district final, since there are no real advantages to gain. I would be surprised to see the region final be double digits. Only one of the three region finals between the teams that the Purples won was decided by double digits. Only two of the ones Central has won between the two was decided by that amount. Those games tend to be competitive even if there is a talent gap. Also, during the game I told a few people that I was surprised DG didn't push it far enough to get a technical. I thought it was as unfavorable a whistle as I recall the Purples getting. I was very surprised. Now, were the fouls on Ritter and Wardlow fouls? I don't remember looking at them and thinking that any were particularly egregious. It's just that they don't all usually get called and it did not feel like things were evening out in how it was called on both sides.

Coming into the game, I suspected this would be the first of four meetings between the two teams, and now I feel fairly certain that is going to be the case unless a major, major upset occurs. The Purples came out firing, streaking out to a 10-1 lead as their full court pressure really caused the Dragons problems (all game really, but especially early), and they capitalized with a pair of threes off of turnovers. The Dragons battled back to within 10-6 before the Purples pushed the lead out to ten. But by the end of the first the Dragons had drawn within 20-17, and we appeared on our way to a high scoring affair. Unfortunately, after that point, it became a very ugly, defensive slugfest, with little in the way of shotmaking. The type of game that you'd expect between two teams that had not played in 10 days. The second quarter is where a very unfriendly whistle for the Purples began to take hold, as several players for the Purples became saddled with two fouls, including stars Ritter and MJ Wardlow, both of whom spent the majority of the quarter on the bench. That resulted in Bowling Green only managing five points in the quarter. Central didn't do much more, putting up only nine, but that was enough for them to grab the 26-25 advantage at the half. Early in the third Wardlow picked up his third foul, and then Ritter followed shortly after, again, landing them on the bench for the majority of the quarter. If the game was to be won for Central, that's probably when they had their best opportunity, but they never led by more than five in the frame. It was 42-39 late when the Purples picked up an offensive rebound off of a blocked attempt and they found Banks for a three that tied it at 42 at the buzzer. Banks was the standout player for the Purples tonight. I don't have an exact count for him, but I know he had more than 20 points, possibly had at least half of their points. The fourth quarter was another slog, with Warren Central pulling ahead 44-42, then 45-44, before Bowling Green went ahead 46-45, followed by a Starks free throw to get it to 46 all. From there, the Purples got a basket to go up 48-46 and once they gained possession with around 1:20 left, we were in a spot that they are very comfortable. They managed to bleed a minute off the clock as the Dragons were forced to foul four times to get Bowling Green to the line. The Purples closed it out from there, hitting a pair of free throws and then getting a basket by Jace Wardlow to reach their final score of 52 with just under 10 seconds left. IMO both teams have reason to feel confident. From the Bowling Green side, they just had a game where Ritter and Wardlow were frequently forced to the bench. To use Ritter as an example, when he left the game with his second foul a few minutes into the second, he had not left the floor at all. They likely will not have him leave the floor much against the Dragons under normal circumstances. It's clear those two out of the game will not be the norm. They didn't score much at all, nor did Deuce Bailey. The team didn't shoot the ball particularly well. What they did do well was grab offensive boards and most definitely they forced the Dragons into turnovers with their fullcourt pressure, which I expect to be a major key in all of their meetings. Foul trouble, an overall unfriendly whistle, and not much production and poor shooting from their best players? You'd have to think that's a cocktail Bowling Green won't see often. And they still won. From the Warren Central side, they are still able to play Kade Unseld for around half the game due to minutes restrictions, and it was clear he could not find a rhythm offensively as a result, coming in and out of the game frequently. This was the first game back for Elijah Howard, one of their defensive specialists. Elijah Starks is still ramping up. The team needs time and games to find their rhythm, and still a month and a half to ramp up production. And despite those limitations, they found a way to put themselves into position to win against one of the top teams in the state. And it's not as if they shot particularly well either. Both of these teams have a lot of room to improve on what they showed int his game, and I guarantee each team is going to feel theirs is the one with more room to improve. But one way or the other, what I do think this proves is that there are scenarios where Warren Central can win this region. I still feel it is clear that it is Bowling Green's to lose, but the gap is not so wide that they cannot fall to Warren Central. The next month and a half will be the two just feeling each other out. The matchup that I anticipate they'll have on March 12th, that's the only one that's going to matter.