DragonFire

Shot in the air with 12 seconds left is too early. 7-8, sure. That’s still enough time to corral a rebound, or foul if need be. As soon as the shot went in I thought “too soon”. Now, as I said later in the thread, Kentucky defended well on the next possession, it was just that LSU made the play in the scramble. But 3-4 seconds less on the clock and maybe they don’t even have that opportunity.

Obviously it was a good shot and he hit it. They got the look they wanted. But it’s textbook sequence - you don’t go that early so that if you do hit it, it isn’t wasted.

Give credit to LSU for making the play at the end. And on a play that Kentucky defended well. They got the block, LSU just got the loose ball and made a great play in the scramble. But that’s why you don’t give them 12 seconds.

You teach your team not to go that early for a reason.

Well of course, Dewalts are basically once in a generation (or two). I've watched basketball in this area for 24 years and Dewalt is a 1 of 1. There have been better basketball players but I've literally yet to lay eyes on an athlete in this region who was his equal. Players of Maresca's talent is a bit more frequent, but not usually as tall. Ritter is definitely the best big. Jamison Glass out of Todd County Central is plenty big as well, just not as thick. There may not be many true bigs, but there's some solid size in the 6'3"-6'5" range in the region. Warren Central just won a state title backed by such players. Both Russellville and Franklin-Simpson fit with what I said about 2016-2017 years being the start of the decline. Russellville benefited a very, very long time from Logan County struggling to find their footing. I don't know for certain that there's a direct correlation, but when Logan County figured out football, that is immediately when Russellville fell off a cliff. The Panthers made the region final in 2017. Logan County's turnaround in football was the fall of 2017. Russellville hasn't had a winning record in basketball since and in many years has been atrocious. I've seen more than one player go from Russellville to Logan County (or elsewhere) and that flow was far more frequently the reverse for the 20 years prior. And of course, there have been years lately where both were bad. That, is what I feel is indicative of the changing patterns in where people live, demographics, etc. Franklin is a bit different to me. They're pretty much what they've been for years. They're frequently talented. They almost always underachieve. They've won one region tournament game since they made the 2009 region final, and they'd lost six games in a row at region before the 2009 tournament. They've had some sterling records in that time, they just don't get it done when it comes to crunch time. I mean, they've had some very good teams in that time. But they haven't won anything of real consequence since leaving the 14th District, and losing 17 in a row to Bowling Green is a big reason why. I know those were just two examples you were throwing out, but I think there are similar stories for a lot of the teams around. Essentially I agree, many of them have had the talent dry up, which I think is because people simply are not choosing to live in those cities. The city of Russellville is smaller now than it was in 1980. Logan County (the county) has only grown by 3,000 people in the same timeframe. Simpson County has grown by 5,000 people since 1980. Allen County has grown by about 7,000 people since 1980. Warren County has grown by 68,000, very nearly doubling. Warren County just dwarfs the other counties in size. And the talent in the county (and surrounding ones) moves around - a lot. And often consolidates at two schools. Which then helps attract more talent moving into the area. Which makes it harder for the other schools to build back up. Which leads to their talent leaving. And so on.

It’s one of their main logos, usually found in the seal: They have this particular logo on their road jerseys this year. Honestly, I vastly prefer it to their lazy, lazy block W logo that they licensed from WKU. I do hate both on the jerseys in general though.

This is as bad as it has been in recent memory, at least to me. It has felt like a steady decline since 2020, which itself was a steady decline since 2016 & 2017. I haven't felt genuine doubt about the region winner coming from someone other than Bowling Green or Warren Central since 2016, with the exception of a couple of years where Greenwood pushed them some (obviously 2022 would be the big one there). I thought maybe Franklin-Simpson could push Bowling Green in 2017, though Bowling Green was still a big favorite. It's no coincidence that BG/WC have met in the region final five out of those six seasons since 2017, and the one they didn't was BG/GW. 2016, at the moment, is shaping up as the last truly great region tournament for the 4th. That year you had no less than five teams you could see cutting down the nets - Bowling Green, Franklin-Simpson, Barren County, Russell County, Warren Central. And Russellville and Clinton County both pushed their respective first round opponents. Glasgow was the only team in the region tournament that was DOA. What has happened? I'm sure it is a wide combination of factors. People moving to this place or that as cities and towns and demographics continue to change. AAU culture with players moving from program to program and never sticking it out to build is part of it too. Talent just continues to consolidate in the big programs, which already had the advantage of being in big towns. Bowling Green and Warren Central have had their boots on the throat of the region for so long that no one in those other schools can really even remember a time it wasn't that way. We are rapidly approaching a time where no one attending a region high school will have even been born the last time someone other than the two of them won region, and that was ONE title back in 2008.

They’ve posted enrollment figures on KHSAA site, but they don’t include the male enrollments, only total. If not for that, we’d be able to tell right now who was going where.

1) Bowling Green (24-5) - 2/12 73-40 W #6 Barren County, 2/15 73-68 W Evangel Christian Previous Rank: 1 This Week: 2/23 at Muhlenberg County 2) Warren Central (13-9) - 2/13 65-59 W Adair County, 2/15 71-61 W North Hardin, 2/16 88-58 W #16 Russellville Previous Rank: 2 This Week: 2/23 at Lexington Catholic 3) Warren East (18-8) - 2/12 69-66 W at #5 South Warren, 2/13 59-54 W #9 Franklin-Simpson, 2/15 70-61 W #12 Monroe County, 2/16 47-61 L at #14 Todd County Central Previous Rank: 3 This Week: 2/19 vs. Green County, 2/20 at Owensboro Catholic, 2/22 vs. #10 Greenwood 4) Clinton County (18-10) - 2/11 56-54 W at #10 Cumberland County, 2/14 83-48 W #7 Russell County, 2/16 68-86 L at #6 Barren County Previous Rank: 4 This Week: 2/20 vs. McCreary Central 5) South Warren (12-10) - 2/12 66-69 L #3 Warren East, 2/16 87-72 W at #11 Metcalfe County Previous Rank: 5 This Week: 2/20 vs. #14 Todd County Central, 2/22 at #8 Franklin-Simpson 6) Barren County (18-10) - 2/12 40-73 L at #1 Bowling Green, 2/13 56-49 W at #11 Metcalfe County, 2/16 86-68 W #4 Clinton County Previous Rank: 6 This Week: 2/20 vs. Taylor County, 2/22 vs. #7 Russell County 7) Russell County (12-13) - 2/13 53-44 W at Danville, 2/14 48-83 L at #4 Clinton County, 2/16 67-77 L Adair County Previous Rank: 7 This Week: 2/20 vs. Pulaski County, 2/22 at #6 Barren County 8. Franklin-Simpson (14-11) - 2/13 54-59 L at #3 Warren East, 2/16 58-56 W #13 Glasgow Previous Rank: 9 This Week: 2/22 vs. #5 South Warren 9) Cumberland County (15-11) - 2/11 54-56 L #4 Clinton County, 2/15 79-73 W Somerset Christian Previous Rank: 10 This Week: 2/20 at #13 Glasgow, 2/22 at Green County 10) Greenwood (12-16) - 2/13 54-61 L at #12 Monroe County, 2/16 62-70 L Grayson County Previous Rank: 8 This Week: 2/20 vs. #12 Metcalfe County, 2/22 at #3 Warren East 11) Monroe County (14-13) - 2/13 61-54 W #8 Greenwood, 2/15 61-70 L at #3 Warren East Previous Rank: 12 This Week: 2/22 at Somerset Christian 12) Metcalfe County (9-18) - 2/13 49-56 L #6 Barren County, 2/15 55-66 L Hart County, 2/16 72-87 L #5 South Warren Previous Rank: 11 This Week: 2/19 vs. #13 Glasgow, 2/20 at #10 Greenwood, 2/22 vs. Caverna 13) Glasgow (7-15) - 2/13 70-82 L Taylor County, 2/16 56-58 L at Franklin-Simpson Previous Rank: 13 This Week: 2/19 at #12 Metcalfe County, 2/20 vs. #9 Cumberland County 14) Todd County Central (12-13) - 2/12 64-52 W at Ballard Memorial, 2/16 61-47 W #3 Warren East Previous Rank: 14 This Week: 2/20 at #5 South Warren, 2/22 vs. #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/23 at Trigg County 15) Logan County (13-14) - 2/13 79-67 W Dawson Springs, 2/15 68-34 W at #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/17 49-91 L Daviess County Previous Rank: 15 This Week: 2/19 at Apollo, 2/20 vs. Muhlenberg County 16) Russellville (5-23) - 2/12 62-64 L Christian County, 2/13 65-26 W #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/16 58-88 L at #2 Warren Central Previous Rank: 16 This Week: 2/20 at Edmonson County, 2/23 vs. Ohio County 17) Allen County-Scottsville (3-23) - 2/13 26-65 L at #16 Russellville, 2/15 34-68 L #15 Logan County Previous Rank: 17 This Week: 2/22 at #14 Todd County Central 18) Foundation Christian Academy (13-11) - 2/13 38-43 L at Cloverport, 2/16 82-37 W Cannelton (IN) Previous Rank: 18 This Week: No Games Notes -There's times I'm genuinely tempted to do these rankings as 1 Bowling Green 2 Warren Central 3-15 Draw from a hat 16 Russellville 17 Allen County-Scottsville 18 Foundation Christian Academy. It's another week with baffling results. -Warren East entered Saturday winners of four in a row and nine of their last ten. They'd also won eight in a row against region opponents, were 14-2 against region opponents, with the only losses coming to Barren County. Enter a Todd County Central team that had lost its most recent region game to Russellville by 18 points..... When I saw the result of this game - a 61-47 win by Todd County Central - the above was pretty much my reaction. Those 47 points are a season low against Kentucky competition for the Raiders, and it doesn't appear they were without any players. It all went wrong for them in the third quarter. After holding a two point halftime lead, East was outscored 23-6 in the third period. Jamison Glass was a man in the game for the Rebels, scoring right at his 26.6 PPG average with 26 points, and he combined with Hayden Strader to score 21 in the decisive third quarter. Now, this WAS East's fourth game of the week and they were playing a back to back while Todd Central had been off for four days. So perhaps that is the explanation for a strange result. But it definitely was a strange result. East continues a late push to get as many games as they can, as they have three games this week. If nothing causes anything to get canceled, they'll play seven games in an 11 day span. -Clinton County was on both sides of some surprising results this week. Not so much the wins and losses as it was the margins. After opening the week on Super Bowl Sunday with a crucial district win over Cumberland County, the Bulldogs set up to host Russell County and try to achieve a tie at the top of the district, requiring a coin toss. Russell County has been slumping in the back half of the season, but had turned in a solid 76-68 win over Clinton County in December. This one, however was over virtually right away. Clinton County never trailed, and was only tied once, at 2-2. They opened the game ultimately on a 24-6 run, and just kept pouring it on from there. (Pun wasn't fully intended, but junior Nick Poore led all scorers with 18 on 6/9 shooting from the floor - he definitely had a game.) The final margin was the largest lead in the game, a 35 point drubbing by an 83-48 score. Steele Burchett (17), Cohen Davis (15), and Cannon Young (14) joined Poore in double figures for the Bulldogs, who shot 50.9% from the floor. It was the highest score posted by either team in the series since Russell County joined the region - you have to go back to Clinton County's 89-73 win over Russell County in December of 2002 to find a higher score (the Lakers were in the 12th Region at the time). Max Davis led the Lakers in the losing effort with 11 - they shot 27.4% from the floor as a team, including 3/25 from three. The Lakers have now lost 8 of their last 12 games. The silver lining for the Lakers? The game ended up not mattering - they won the coin toss and the #1 seed that comes with it, relegating Clinton County to meet Cumberland County in the district semis for a berth in the region tournament. How did Clinton county follow up this dominant performance? By getting dumptrucked by a Barren County team that had struggled to put away Metcalfe County just three days before. Now, again, maybe Clinton County's focus wasn't extremely high after the big win over Russell County, but an 18 point loss to Barren County and especially allowing 86 points were surprising results. Excepting their win over the home school team, Barren County hadn't scored above 76 points all year. Clinton County had only once allowed above 70 points this year, and the 86 points were their highest since giving up 91 to Madison Southern in January 2023. The Trojans were 9/18 from three in the game, and shot 61.9% from the floor - 26/42. They also attempted a whopping 32 free throws, hitting 25 of them. Tate Spillman led the Trojans with 25 points, one of five Barren County players in double figures. Brey Bewley (21), Jackson Reece (14), Mason Bunch (11), and Graham Hall (11) were the others. -Greenwood is another team that has become increasingly difficult to rank, and honestly, I probably should have gone ahead and dropped them to 11th this week, but my gut had them staying at 10. The Gators have won only three of their last 15 games. Their ability to stay close to the likes of South Warren (losing in overtime and then by 7) and Barren County (lost by three in double overtime) in addition to solid wins over Daviess County and Franklin-Simpson are why they hang on in my mind, because Monroe County hasn't exactly done much more to light the world on fire. But they definitely made it tough this week, as Monroe County pulled a surprising 61-54 win over the Gators on Tuesday. It was Greenwood's first loss to the Falcons since 2014, and gave Monroe their third win in the last 10 games (they'd go on to lose to Warren East two days later, making them 3-8 in their last 11). The Falcons rode Austen Arnett and Brison Nuckols to the victory, with the pair combining for 43 of their 61 points. The team shot 44% from the field, but those two were 15/30. Nuckols in particular was impressing, knocking down 5/7 from three. Greenwood had three in double figures - Zeek Noyce (18), Garrett Hatcher (14), and Asher Pettus (10). -Bowling Green kept rolling right along, picking up two wins to make them 17-1 in their last 18 contests. The one loss was the double overtime loss by a single point at Lyon County. This week they added another feather in their cap with a 73-68 home win over Evangel Christian, a team ranked in the top 15 of most rankings. They overcame 28 points by Christian Doerr to win on senior night. Senior Mason Ritter led the Purples with 18 points, joined by Deuce Bailey with 17 (12 in the final quarter). Senior MJ Wardlow also had 17. The Purples have marquee wins over Evangel Christian, Henderson County, Fairdale, Harlan County, and Trinity. They look every bit the favorite they are. -Special shoutout to Foundation Christian Academy, who brought their season to a close with an 82-37 win over Cannelton (IN). They finish 13-11 on the year, their most wins by 7 in the short history of the program, and their first winning record. The team has no seniors, so it will be interesting to see if they can hold onto everyone and continue to progress. They are still a long way away from competing for real in the KHSAA (or advancing from their dedicated 18th ranking in these ranks), but it is nice to see their progression. -The final week of the regular season is mostly dotted with out of region contests, but there are some in-region games to watch. Warren East hosts former district mate Greenwood on Thursday, South Warren visits Franklin-Simpson on Thursday as well, and given the recent play of the two teams, I am keeping an eye on Thursday's Russell County at Barren County matchup. The biggest out of region game is probably Warren Central's visit to Lexington Catholic on Friday. I'd be beyond shocked if Central was really a threat to win that game, but it is an important barometer entering the postseason for just how much of a threat they might be to Bowling Green.

Agreed on the best win. The UNC game might be best team they've beaten, but winning AT Auburn is so huge. Never trailed, led for almost the final 38 minutes.

Ball don't lie.

That sure looked like a bad call there. Dillingham just fell.

I despise these reviews.

Big dunk by Thiero to stop the run. Just make Auburn use time.

Just do that exact thing in the second half, and we're golden. Seems reasonable...

*Another week of a unanimous number 1 in Great Crossing. Given the rest of their schedule, it would be shocking if they didn't maintain this status these last two weeks as well. *35 teams were rated in at least one poll, same as a week ago. *Campbell County (Nations Elite 22, KSR 25), University Heights (KYHSZ 24), Spencer County (Nations Elite 25), and Wayne County (KYHSZ 25) joined the rankings, while Butler County, North Hardin, South Laurel, and Walton-Verona all dropped out. *Our unicorns this week (teams rated by only a single outlet) - Bell County (Martin Media 20), Elizabethtown (Nations Elite 20), Danville Christian (KYHSZ 21), Lloyd Memorial (KSR 23), and the aforementioned University Heights, Spencer County, and Wayne County. Danville Christian, Lloyd Memorial, and Elizabethtown were both unicorns last week, by the same outlets. *16 teams were rated by every outlet, down one from a week ago: Great Crossing Lexington Catholic Newport Lyon County Covington Catholic Trinity Bowling Green Evangel Christian St. X North Oldham George Rogers Clark Harlan County Manual Woodford County Henderson County Bryan Station *Frederick Douglass was the team dropped from a week ago, and dropped by three outlets. Deciding what to do with them based on their results without Boone seem to be the big disagreement, as the Media poll had them all the way up at 15th while those three others knocked them out entirely. Very unusual to see a team rated that highly while 50% of the other poll have them out. Of course, just last week Nations Elite had Fairdale 12th while three polls had them out. Three still have them out this week, but Nations Elite dropped them to a more palatable 17th. *Nations Elite remains non-believers in George Rogers Clark - four outlets have GRC in the top 10, another 12th. Nations Elite puts them in at 21. *Henderson County has an even wider gap, as Nations Elite launched them all the way to 7th - KSR has them 10th as well - while KYHSZ has them down at 23rd. That 16 spot gap is the widest in the rankings. *Bryan Station is polarizing as well, with Martin Media checking them in at 11th, while both Nations Elite and KSR have them 24th. *Big Things Kentucky only ranks 20 teams, and they're the only poll between DeSales, Boyd County, and Male being consensus ranked, though Male barely held on in the Media poll at 25th - just one single vote. *For the second straight week, four outlets were bullish on Cooper - Media, Nations Elite, KSR, and KYHSZ all had them in their top 17 - while Martin Media and Big Things Kentucky had them out entirely. *Big Things Kentucky remains a huge believer in North Oldham, having them 4th, while no one else has them above 10th. *Great Crossing, Lexington Catholic, and Newport remain the consensus teams in the top 5, and all remain in the top three. Consensus top 10 had those three plus Lyon County, Covington Catholic, Bowling Green, and St. X. All seven of those teams were consensus top 10 a week ago as well. As with last week, Martin Media stood between Trinity and this status, dropping them a spot to 12th this week. *The Sweet 16 draw came out this week, and using these rankings as a barometer, no one is sitting better than Lyon County. The Lyons have an average ranking of 4.66, and in their quadrant of the bracket are Regions 1, 5, and 16. Boyd County is the only team from any of those regions rated in even 5 of the 6 polls, and their average rank is 17.8 in those five polls. There are some juicy first round matchups if the ranks hold, with Region 11 (Great Crossing/Lexington Catholic) facing Region 8 (North Oldham) in a matchup that would produce two top ten teams by average, with Region 9 (Newport/Covington Catholic) vs. Region 10 (George Rogers Clark) and Region 13 (Harlan County) vs. Region 4 (Bowling Green) coming very close to matching that.

First the Media poll: 1. Great Crossing (16 FPV) 2. Lexington Catholic 3. Newport 4. Trinity 5. Lyon County 6. Covington Catholic 7. St. X T-8. Bowling Green T-8. Evangel Christian [Up 2] 10. George Rogers Clark [Down 1] 11. Manual 12. Harlan County [Down 1] 13. North Oldham 14. Woodford County [Up 3] 15. Frederick Douglass [Down 1] Others receiving votes: Bryan Station 11, Cooper 10, Boyd County 9, DeSales 9, Henderson County 8, Adair County 3, Henry Clay 3, Hazard 2, Pikeville 2, Male 1. *Ever so slight surprise that Frederick Douglass held onto their spot in the top 25 despite losing three games the previous week. I get they were without Boone, so that was likely the entire reason for waving those away. Still - Sayre? And it also felt a bit like Woodford County jumped back in due to beating Frederick Douglass. You know... without Boone. *That's a remarkably stable top 8. No movement anywhere.

I’ve never even heard of that type of thing - a player transferring from a school where their parent is on staff to go to a rival. Definitely unusual. Are all nine of those players who were enrolled at the high school at some point?

Updating with a couple of notes: -Clinton County narrowly edged out Cumberland County 56-54 yesterday, meaning they will get a crack at tying Russell County for the top seed in the 16th District on Wednesday. If Clinton County can win that game at home, then they'll tie Russell County at the top of the district at 6-2, and it will go to a coin flip for the top seed. If they lose, Russell County will clinch the top spot outright, and Clinton County and Cumberland County will flip a coin for who is the #2 seed, but that just determines who wears white in their matchup in the tournament. -The draw for the Sweet 16 took place today, and the 4th Region's draw was...... not great. They've drawn the early game on Thursday, March 21, and they'll face the Region 13 winners. That in and of itself is not a death sentence. The early game helps some with the rest worries that come later, as the winner there will not play again until 6 PM the next day, and if they advance past the quarterfinal matchup, they'll have a slight rest advantage over the team coming out of the bottom of that bracket. Harlan County is a good team, but Bowling Green has already beaten them once. It's a winnable game. But, it is hardly a walkover. And what is absolutely certain is that none of the others will be either. Ideally, you want a draw like Lyon County got - two rounds of games you'll be heavily favored in, and then you take your chances. The quarterfinal round would see the winner of the 9th and 10th. That would be the likes of Newport, Covington Catholic, or George Rogers Clark. Tough, tough teams. Win that, and it's going to likely be a Louisville region representative waiting, as the 6th and 7th are heavily favored to advance to a quarterfinal matchup, guaranteeing one of them waiting in the semifinal. All of that to run into a team like Lyon County or Great Crossing on more rest than you. For me personally, I think this draw removes the realistic chance of a state champion from the 4th this year. But, I also didn't think Warren Central would get into position for a state title in 2022 when they had to go through Male and Covington Catholic just to get to George Rogers Clark, so you never know.

So all together, we have: 15 v 14 8 v 11 16 v 2 5 v 1 13 v 4 9 v 10 12 v 7 6 v 3 Lyon County is the big winner from what I see. A very, very clear path to the semifinals, and you always expect a tough matchup by that point. I think it's a relatively good draw for 7th, as I favor their region over the 6th. 8 v 11 gets a really difficult first round but the winner of that is going to be in the semis. Region 15 and 14 probably get as good a first game as they could have hoped for. I don't think there are any winners in that third quad. Newport/Covington Catholic, Bowlin Green, GRC, Harlan County - those are some tough, tough teams.

And finally: 12 v 7 3 v 6 Likely all-Louisville quarterfinal there.

Third quadrant: 13 v 4 9 v 10 Some monster teams in that one.