Combining the most recent Rasmussen & Pew Research polls, here are General Election numbers:

 

- Obama leads Romney by 7.5%

- Obama leads Santorum by 9%

 

Am I seeing right that Santorum has a large lead over Romney in Michigan? Really?

Combining the most recent Rasmussen & Pew Research polls, here are General Election numbers:

 

- Obama leads Romney by 7.5%

- Obama leads Santorum by 9%

 

Am I seeing right that Santorum has a large lead over Romney in Michigan? Really?

15%.

15%.

 

Isn't Michigan Romney's roots? How is this happening? I don't have a dog in the fight, but I would've had Michigan as the one state he wouldn't have to worry about...and maybe even one he could take in November. I must be missing something.

Combining the most recent Rasmussen & Pew Research polls, here are General Election numbers:

 

- Obama leads Romney by 7.5%

- Obama leads Santorum by 9%

 

Am I seeing right that Santorum has a large lead over Romney in Michigan? Really?

 

:lol: It's going to be interesting to see how Romney goes after Santorum. I think Romney was able to crush Gingrich in Florida by playing up the Fannie thing and some of Gingrich's past indulgences in good-ol-boy politics, which was made credible by Gingrich's general reputation of intemperance. His past moral infidelities didn't seem to hurt him as much and attacks against him on that front may have even helped him.

 

Santorum's a completely different case. His unpopularity is basically derived from his obsessive moral crusading, which is over the top even for many social conservatives. But, can Romney afford to attack him there? To do it, Romney would have to come from the left (sound like a liberal). Santorum's economic and foreign policy is basically that of GW Bush's. There's some red meat there for conservatives, but not much. It was essentially championed and endorsed by Republicans for eight years. I think Romney will struggle to separate himself there without ticking voters off.

 

I read today that a Romney adviser was broadcasting their plans for attacking Santorum. The adviser said "Santorum's a blank slate, so everyone's projecting on to him what they want because he's the last anti-Romney. Santorum is going to get introduced to people that don't know him" and "They're going to hit him very hard on earmarks, lobbying, voting to raise the federal debt limit five times. The story of Santorum is going to be told over the next few weeks in a big way." To me, that sounds like chest-puffing far more than substance, which seems more like a bluff than anything. I could be wrong, but I don't remember the attacks on Gingrich being broadcast by any advisers. It seems like they generally avoided discussing them. So, it's curious to me that attacks on Santorum are being played up.

 

I also think that advisers analysis is a bit-off. I'm beginning to think Santorum is both the last non-Romney option left (unless Gingrich can make another comeback in the South) and the only one that sounds like he cares about the working class. That might give him a big boost in rust-belt states and is, again, something Romney will struggle to overcome. As a mega-rich elite he doesn't connect with the working class easily, especially with his wooden personality. And Santorum is, again, advocating Bushian "compassionate conservatism" which probably plays better in those states than Romney's rhetoric.

 

At any rate, I'd love to see this thing settled at the convention. I think that would be interesting and pretty unique.

Isn't Michigan Romney's roots? How is this happening? I don't have a dog in the fight, but I would've had Michigan as the one state he wouldn't have to worry about...and maybe even one he could take in November. I must be missing something.

 

I don't have an answer, but I saw a poll not too long ago that indicated most Michiganers don't really consider Romney one of their own any more. I don't know if that's because of not connecting him with his father, awareness, or just disowning.

 

Also, here's one of Romney's first Michigan ads. It's playing up that he's originally from Michigan and tries to sell him as a regular guy (he's driving, acting casual, and the car's a Chrysler).

 

Isn't Michigan Romney's roots? How is this happening? I don't have a dog in the fight, but I would've had Michigan as the one state he wouldn't have to worry about...and maybe even one he could take in November. I must be missing something.

It is his roots. His father was also Governor there. I find it interesting that in the state hardest hit by the economy Romney is polling poorly. Wasn't the economy supposed to be what would make Romney the GOP savior come the general?

It is his roots. His father was also Governor there. I find it interesting that in the state hardest hit by the economy Romney is polling poorly. Wasn't the economy supposed to be what would make Romney the GOP savior come the general?

 

It doesn't help Romney has strongly stated several times we should have let the automobile industry fail... That probably didn't win him many voters in Michigan.

It doesn't help Romney has strongly stated several times we should have let the automobile industry fail... That probably didn't win him many voters in Michigan.

 

I wasn't aware of that, but that would definitely make an impact.

:lol: It's going to be interesting to see how Romney goes after Santorum. I think Romney was able to crush Gingrich in Florida by playing up the Fannie thing and some of Gingrich's past indulgences in good-ol-boy politics, which was made credible by Gingrich's general reputation of intemperance. His past moral infidelities didn't seem to hurt him as much and attacks against him on that front may have even helped him.

 

Santorum's a completely different case. His unpopularity is basically derived from his obsessive moral crusading, which is over the top even for many social conservatives. But, can Romney afford to attack him there? To do it, Romney would have to come from the left (sound like a liberal). Santorum's economic and foreign policy is basically that of GW Bush's. There's some red meat there for conservatives, but not much. It was essentially championed and endorsed by Republicans for eight years. I think Romney will struggle to separate himself there without ticking voters off.

 

I read today that a Romney adviser was broadcasting their plans for attacking Santorum. The adviser said "Santorum's a blank slate, so everyone's projecting on to him what they want because he's the last anti-Romney. Santorum is going to get introduced to people that don't know him" and "They're going to hit him very hard on earmarks, lobbying, voting to raise the federal debt limit five times. The story of Santorum is going to be told over the next few weeks in a big way." To me, that sounds like chest-puffing far more than substance, which seems more like a bluff than anything. I could be wrong, but I don't remember the attacks on Gingrich being broadcast by any advisers. It seems like they generally avoided discussing them. So, it's curious to me that attacks on Santorum are being played up.

 

I also think that advisers analysis is a bit-off. I'm beginning to think Santorum is both the last non-Romney option left (unless Gingrich can make another comeback in the South) and the only one that sounds like he cares about the working class. That might give him a big boost in rust-belt states and is, again, something Romney will struggle to overcome. As a mega-rich elite he doesn't connect with the working class easily, especially with his wooden personality. And Santorum is, again, advocating Bushian "compassionate conservatism" which probably plays better in those states than Romney's rhetoric.

 

At any rate, I'd love to see this thing settled at the convention. I think that would be interesting and pretty unique.

 

I don't have an answer, but I saw a poll not too long ago that indicated most Michiganers don't really consider Romney one of their own any more. I don't know if that's because of not connecting him with his father, awareness, or just disowning.

 

Also, here's one of Romney's first Michigan ads. It's playing up that he's originally from Michigan and tries to sell him as a regular guy (he's driving, acting casual, and the car's a Chrysler).

 

 

Good info! :thumb:

Today's USA Today/Gallup poll for the General Election:

 

Obama 47% Romney 47%

Obama 46% Santorum 49%

 

I know both of these numbers reflect statistical ties, but I'm dumbfounded that Santorum has been polling equal to Romney in the General. Anyone with an explanation for this?

Today's USA Today/Gallup poll for the General Election:

 

Obama 47% Romney 47%

Obama 46% Santorum 49%

 

I know both of these numbers reflect statistical ties, but I'm dumbfounded that Santorum has been polling equal to Romney in the General. Anyone with an explanation for this?

 

 

 

Could it be that people are willing to follow the unknown rather than the known? Just asking.

Mr Santorum's "makes me want to puke" comment in regards to separation of Church and State is interesting.

Could it be that people are willing to follow the unknown rather than the known? Just asking.

 

That's possible. I'm really at a loss on this one.

Today's USA Today/Gallup poll for the General Election:

 

Obama 47% Romney 47%

Obama 46% Santorum 49%

 

I know both of these numbers reflect statistical ties, but I'm dumbfounded that Santorum has been polling equal to Romney in the General. Anyone with an explanation for this?

 

I'm more surprised at how much the gap between Obama and the potential challengers has narrowed (and even flipped) over the last month or so. I wonder if the contraception issue has hurt him.

 

I'm not surprised Santorum plays better than Romney right now. I know I've said it a bunch, but I think people find Romney inauthentic and slippery. The media has stuck him with the "electable moderate" label, but I don't think he's lived up to it. Santorum is more personable and seemingly genuine, so maybe that contrast has made Romney's robotic nature more apparent. I also wonder how many people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics or only follow it in bits and pieces know much about Santorum. I imagine once people are deluged with his opinions he might deflate a bit.

I'm more surprised at how much the gap between Obama and the potential challengers has narrowed (and even flipped) over the last month or so. I wonder if the contraception issue has hurt him.

 

I'm not surprised Santorum plays better than Romney right now. I know I've said it a bunch, but I think people find Romney inauthentic and slippery. The media has stuck him with the "electable moderate" label, but I don't think he's lived up to it. Santorum is more personable and seemingly genuine, so maybe that contrast has made Romney's robotic nature more apparent. I also wonder how many people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics or only follow it in bits and pieces know much about Santorum. I imagine once people are deluged with his opinions he might deflate a bit.

 

On your first sentence, I have always thought Obama has a lower ceiling of support. He got 53% in 2008, and with a number of voters being turned off by him, it's hard to imagine him garnering any more than that this time around. I had previously thought that Santorum, along with every other non-Romney candidate, would face a similar, yet lower ceiling because of them being more conservative. And I felt like Romney had the higher ceiling of any of the major candidates. So I'm not really surprised that the Obama lead has narrowed.

 

I have always felt like an Obama/Romney matchup would be something like 50/49% for Obama & 47/48% for Romney, with around 2.5%-4% going third party (1.5% did so in 2008). And I would've felt like Obama/non-Romney would be something like 52-44% with that same 4% going third-party. That's why this Santorum thing has me scratching my head. On social issues, at least, he comes across as the most conservative of any of the candidates--even those who have already dropped out.

 

Your last sentence I very much agree with. I just never thought Santorum would ever poll so highly when matched up with the President.