Turnout among Republicans was also lower than it was in 2008. The only contest so far where turnout for Reps has been higher was in South Carolina. It would seem a lot of people are sitting out when there's not a credible alternative to Romney. Gingrich was decimated with ads in Iowa and Florida, which I think removed a lot of his appeal, but he managed to avoid that kind of beat down in South Carolina and the results showed.

That is not what I read nor heard.

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0201/Florida-primary-results-Romney-most-electable-but-GOP-base-still-wary-video

 

According to the article, like I have always said, Romney did just fine with evangelicals.

I think the first line in that link says it all.

This CNN link shows Newt dominated with the Tea Party.

 

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl

 

So, in other words. Romney did just fine with the conservative vote, evangelical vote and the tea party vote. Sure, Gingrich beat him on those who strongly support the Tea Party but that was expected. Romney killed Gingrich with people who somewhat support them. Same with being somewhat conservative.

 

Romney is taking a far bigger percentage of the pie in virtually every category than what posters on here have thought or projected. I just hope we can get off the "He won't win, he's uh Mormon." BS.

 

There is no denying his message resonates with people of all beliefs, sex, color and age.

So, in other words. Romney did just fine with the conservative vote, evangelical vote and the tea party vote. Sure, Gingrich beat him on those who strongly support the Tea Party but that was expected. Romney killed Gingrich with people who somewhat support them. Same with being somewhat conservative.

 

Romney is taking a far bigger percentage of the pie in virtually every category than what posters on here have thought or projected. I just hope we can get off the "He won't win, he's uh Mormon." BS.

 

There is no denying his message resonates with people of all beliefs, sex, color and age.

 

Florida is not a state I would base anything on just because of its diversity.

 

I would think states like SC, AL, GA would be better reads for how Gov Romney's standing with those that consider themselves "far right" or "evangelical."

This CNN link shows Newt dominated with the Tea Party.

 

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/fl

 

Some very interesting numbers in there. The main one I was looking at was the impact of Newt's multiple marriages. There are several numbers in there that show it hurts him with women, as I expected.

 

Also, Newt's biggest margin was with those considering True Conservative. Romney only received 11% from that category.

Turnout among Republicans was also lower than it was in 2008. The only contest so far where turnout for Reps has been higher was in South Carolina. It would seem a lot of people are sitting out when there's not a credible alternative to Romney.

 

There really isn't any relation with that of primary turnout and general turnout.

 

1980. Dems had more show up in the general by about 6 million.

 

1988. Dems had roughly 10 million more turnout in the primaries. I wasn't born yet but I am pretty sure the GOP did just fine.

 

2000. GOP primary voters turned out in greater numbers. GWB lost the popular vote.

 

2004. Dem turnout was low yet Kerry was just a few points shy of winning.

Also, Newt's biggest margin was with those considering True Conservative. Romney only received 11% from that category.

 

That was in terms of most important quality. Not voters who thought themselves true conservative.

Florida is not a state I would base anything on just because of its diversity.

 

I would look at a state like FL considering its a microcosm of the rest of the nation. Same with Ohio. Not only are they key swing states but these states can give a good representation of the rest of the country.

That was in terms of most important quality. Not voters who thought themselves true conservative.

 

Right. I should have stated it clearer. Those considering True Conservative as the most important candidate quality don't like Romney and like Gingrich.

There really isn't any relation with that of primary turnout and general turnout.

 

1980. Dems had more show up in the general by about 6 million.

 

1988. Dems had roughly 10 million more turnout in the primaries. I wasn't born yet but I am pretty sure the GOP did just fine.

 

2000. GOP primary voters turned out in greater numbers. GWB lost the popular vote.

 

2004. Dem turnout was low yet Kerry was just a few points shy of winning.

 

Even assuming all of that is true it doesn't have any bearing on what I said, which is that Republican voters are comparatively underwhelmed with their options this cycle. In particular it appears Romney isn't a big draw since his wins have come during low turnouts. He lost when the turnout was up.

Florida is not a state I would base anything on just because of its diversity.

 

I would think states like SC, AL, GA would be better reads for how Gov Romney's standing with those that consider themselves "far right" or "evangelical."

 

Newt's performance was the difference between FL and SC.

Not SC's strong conservative, non Romney base as you seem to be insinuating.

 

But this is all pointless. Time will tell. I'll put money on Romney over Gingrich for the nomination.

Even assuming all of that is true it doesn't have any bearing on what I said, which is that Republican voters are comparatively underwhelmed with their options this cycle. In particular it appears Romney isn't a big draw since his wins have come during low turnouts. He lost when the turnout was up.

 

Link.

 

So of all the times you have posted about low primary turnout, there were no undertones that this would be bad for the GOP in the general?

Link.

 

So of all the times you have posted about low primary turnout, there were no undertones that this would be bad for the GOP in the general?

 

No, only that GOP voters aren't particularly enthusiastic with their options and don't appear to be completely sold on Romney, which is atypical for someone in his shoes. Though, I don't think these are very good candidates for the general election either, but that's an entirely different argument.

No, only that GOP voters aren't particularly enthusiastic with their options and don't appear to be completely sold on Romney, which is atypical for someone in his shoes. Though, I don't think these are very good candidates for the general election either, but that's an entirely different argument.

 

 

I guess time will tell.