January 13, 201115 yr Which would be a shame. There are tons of players in who popped greenie's. The next thing you know the writers will want to vote players like Willie Mays OUT of the HOF. Voters are going to have a hard time rationalizing being OK with greenies but not with steroids. My guess is they will use the "it wasn't proven" line.
January 13, 201115 yr I agree with most of your list except: Halladay - way too early on him. He doesn't even have 200 wins yet. He needs about 4 more years like the past one to start feeling solid. Pettitie - Very iffy, at best. I saw an article discussing his Hall possibilities and I believe they stated he would have one of the highest ERA's of any Hall pitcher if he made it. He also has the steroids cloud around him. If it took Blyleven 14 years to get in, no way Pettitie gets in IMO. Santana - Not even in the discussion at this point in his career. Way too much work ahead of him to start thinking Hall. Is Roy Oswalt hall potential? Compare their stats and you might remove Santana from your list. Pettite also has the most postseason wins and is a five time champion. I think that will help him a lot.
January 13, 201115 yr Voters are going to have a hard time rationalizing being OK with greenies but not with steroids. My guess is they will use the "it wasn't proven" line.it's hard to use that line when they snub Bagwell.
January 13, 201115 yr Voters are going to have a hard time rationalizing being OK with greenies but not with steroids. My guess is they will use the "it wasn't proven" line. They can't use that line because it was obvious Big Mac wasn't getting in before he admitted to using. The baseball HOF is a joke.
January 13, 201115 yr Papa's picks: Can't miss: Pudge, Albert, Jeter, Chipper, Ichiro, Rivera and Hoffman Fringe: Edmonds, No way: Dunn, Konerko Everyone else has to have some things go their way - several more years (not just another year or two) of putting up big numbers (Halladay, Utley, Texeria, Howard, etc.); catch a weak class eligible for induction, voters turning the other cheek to the PED issue (Manny); voters overlook the Coors Field advantage (Helton), etc., etc. One of the acid tests, IMHO, for real HOF consideration, should be the "were they dominant at their position when they played" test.
January 13, 201115 yr I honestly think it may take ARod being eligible before the voters will change their ways on steroids. I just don't see any possible way they deny him the HOF. And once you let one in then the gates will be open.
January 13, 201115 yr Pettite also has the most postseason wins and is a five time champion. I think that will help him a lot. I agree it will help Pettite. But I will point out Blyleven was a two time champion and his postseason winning percentage and ERA are much better than Pettite's. It is very difficult for starting pitchers to get in today with less than 300 wins. Blyleven is the only starting pitcher to get in since Nolan Ryan in 1999 and Blyleven's stats destroy Pettite's. Here are the six starting pitchers elected in the past 20 years (since 1991): Seaver, Carlton, Neikro, Sutton, Ryan and Blyleven. And you may say Pettite is better than Neikro or Sutton but both won well over 300 games, both have career ERA's a half point better than Pettite's and both have over 1,000 strikeouts more than Pettite. The more I look at it, the more I feel Pettite's only hope is to pitch long enough to get to 300 wins and I don't see that happening.
January 13, 201115 yr I agree it will help Pettite. But I will point out Blyleven was a two time champion and his postseason winning percentage and ERA are much better than Pettite's. It is very difficult for starting pitchers to get in today with less than 300 wins. Blyleven is the only starting pitcher to get in since Nolan Ryan in 1999 and Blyleven's stats destroy Pettite's. Here are the six starting pitchers elected in the past 20 years (since 1991): Seaver, Carlton, Neikro, Sutton, Ryan and Blyleven. And you may say Pettite is better than Neikro or Sutton but both won well over 300 games, both have career ERA's a half point better than Pettite's and both have over 1,000 strikeouts more than Pettite. The more I look at it, the more I feel Pettite's only hope is to pitch long enough to get to 300 wins and I don't see that happening. Different eras make the ERA a tough comparison.
January 13, 201115 yr I think you have to draw fair comparisons to players of other generations. Pettitte reminds me of Don Sutton, who probably shouldn't be in. Most postseason wins doesn't mean that much with the added playoff rounds. Right now, Santana reminds me of Ron Guidry. If Guidry, who was one of the most feared of his time but has been denied because of injuries limiting his years of effectiveness, can't get in, Santana's got a ton of work to do. Part of me says Oswalt is a shaky yes, but I think some of that is clouded by his dominance of the Reds. I'm going "not sure," which leads me to believe he'll have to do a little bit more. Another thing I think we may be seeing moreso than BBWAA freezing out steroid guys, they might seem to be adjusting stats for eras, and what used to be a magic number ain't anymore.
January 13, 201115 yr Papa's picks: Can't miss: Pudge, Albert, Jeter, Chipper, Ichiro, Rivera and Hoffman Fringe: Edmonds, No way: Dunn, Konerko Everyone else has to have some things go their way - several more years (not just another year or two) of putting up big numbers (Halladay, Utley, Texeria, Howard, etc.); catch a weak class eligible for induction, voters turning the other cheek to the PED issue (Manny); voters overlook the Coors Field advantage (Helton), etc., etc. One of the acid tests, IMHO, for real HOF consideration, should be the "were they dominant at their position when they played" test. What about Thome? Much like Griffey, one of the last "sluggers" to never be connected to PEDs. I think he gets in 1st ballot.
January 13, 201115 yr Of your list of field players, I think the only assured ones are Pudge, Pujols, Jeter, ARod, Chipper (but he's iffy, and may wait a while), Ichiro. Vlad and Manny will have to wait a while. Rivera is a gimme, and if Halladay continues his current arc he should be in good shape. Sabathia's got work to do. If Lee Arthur Smith can't get in, Hoffman's gotta wait.
January 13, 201115 yr What about Thome? Much like Griffey, one of the last "sluggers" to never be connected to PEDs. I think he gets in 1st ballot. Zero chance he's in on the 1st ballot. Very, very few get in on the first. It's reserved for the elite of the elite.
January 13, 201115 yr Zero chance he's in on the 1st ballot. Very, very few get in on the first. It's reserved for the elite of the elite. Disagree. I think his numbers warrant 1st ballot selection, and the fact that he's considered one of the nicest guys in the game will help as well.
January 13, 201115 yr 1500+ Rs, 2300+ Hs, 450+ 2Bs, 600+ HRs, 1700+ RBIs, 1700+ BBs, and .280+ avg. If those aren't 1st ballot numbers, than no one deserves it.
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