September 24, 200817 yr I wouldn't complain or anthing like that because that's the way it's supposed to be decided in case of a tie. I just am really worried about our country if Obama wins. I know you and many others probably won't agree with me on that, but it's my belief that an Obama win will be a disaster for our country. There are several here on BGP that are in your corner. As you know, I'm not one of them, as a general rule. But also as a general rule, we engage in reasonable, well-informed debates here as well. It just seems to me that the present administation, had it set out to intentionally ruin the country since 2000, couldn't have done a more bang-up job. Others have done a much better job than I could in reciting the litany of wrong turns - the biggest being the wasted resources, human and otherwise, spent in Iraq (in my opinion). And while the Republican Convention was pretty much an indictment of the present administration (and rightfully so), I have a hard time believing that should they be elected in 2008, will make a series of 180s.
September 24, 200817 yr There are several here on BGP that are in your corner. As you know, I'm not one of them, as a general rule. But also as a general rule, we engage in reasonable, well-informed debates here as well. It just seems to me that the present administation, had it set out to intentionally ruin the country since 2000, couldn't have done a more bang-up job. Others have done a much better job than I could in reciting the litany of wrong turns - the biggest being the wasted resources, human and otherwise, spent in Iraq (in my opinion). And while the Republican Convention was pretty much an indictment of the present administration (and rightfully so), I have a hard time believing that should they be elected in 2008, will make a series of 180s. I understand why people would think that about another Republican administration, but McCain has definitely had a history of working in a bipartisan manner.
September 24, 200817 yr http://www.CovercornersConstitutionalFactCheck.org (not a real website-yet) has issue with this article. Absurd? Possibly, and there is not complete agreement among constitutional experts on whether a newly elected Congress or the currently sitting House and Senate would make the decision. According to the 12th Amendment, if there is a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives, "...shall coose immediatley, by ballot, the President." This is on the day the Electoral College meets, Dec. 12th. The 12th Amendment goes on to say if the House cannot choose(or tie) by March 4th(changed to Jan 3rd by 20th Amendment), the Vice President will act as President. The Senate will then choose the new Vice President from those on the ballot(Biden or Palin). The Senate has no input or vote on the Presidency, in the way written by this article. We could assume if this scenario happens, that the President will be Dick Cheyney, and his Vice President will be Joe Biden. According to this Article: the Democrat-controlled House picks Sen. Barack Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie to make Republican Sarah Palin his successor. we have an impossible statement. If the house picks Obama, it is decided. The Senate cannot pick the President in any way. I was just giving the article from the Washington times. I can say I was honestly confused by it. If it's a tie it will be very interesting to say the least.
September 24, 200817 yr I understand why people would think that about another Republican administration, but McCain has definitely had a history of working in a bipartisan manner. Yes he has - which is why many hard-core conservatives didn't want anything to do with the guy - until it became obvious that only a moderate Republican nominee stood a chance in 2008. But for folks like me who think that the country has been on the downhill slide, the message that was loud and clear at the RNC - "The country is screwed up, so if you want to change things, vote for the party that screwed it up" - just doesn't resonate.
September 24, 200817 yr This race is going to be extremly tight. I can't get over the fact that Indiana and Montana are as close as they are... And I think that should be a concern for the Democrats and hopefully review their stances on issues. There is NO WAY this race should be close in any way. NO WAY Bush wins in 2004 except he did. Why? Because the Dems' stances on issues do not really represent voter's views. Voters are wanting to vote Democrat but then they look at the issues and they don't like the Dems stances on many of the issues. The latest economic times may push them over the edge and they vote for O but the dems should study why they are not running away with this race.
September 24, 200817 yr According to Rasmussen, as of 9.24 41% are sure they will vote for Obama while 40% are sure they will vote for McCain. 47% now say the economy is the top issue. When "leaners" are included the electoral race has Obama up 259 to 247.
September 24, 200817 yr There is about 5-7 races that the numbers are really important and that is it. That national poll is irrelevant. PA, VA, Co, MN, MI, OH, FLA, WI, NV, NM. The polls in those states are the key. The national poll, depending on how it is setup, may be skewed because of the # of voters in CA, Illinois and NY. THose states are going to go O (possible exception of NY).
September 24, 200817 yr The national poll, depending on how it is setup, may be skewed because of the # of voters in CA, Illinois and NY. THose states are going to go O (possible exception of NY). That's why I always list the electoral votes.
September 24, 200817 yr Three states will be the key on Election Day. Florida Virginia Ohio The way I see things working out go like this. Michigan and Pennsylvania both go into the Obama Category. He didn't do well in PA in the pirmaries, but I think the economy will be too much of a factor for McCain to overcome. New Mexico will probably go to Obama, New Hampshire will probably go to Mcain. Give Nevada and Colorado to either one, it makes no difference. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will probably go to Obama. That leaves the initial three states that will make a difference. If this scenario occurs, McCain will have to win all three: Florida, Virgina, and Ohio. If he wins only two of three, Obama will be the next President of the US. Polls that I know and trust, put Obama ahead in Virgina(barely) ahead in Ohio(more comfortably), and tied in Florida. There will be obviously other factors that come in to play between now and Nov. 4th. I am not going to make a prediction now, but if you put a gun to my head and asked for it, I would say that Obama would win Ohio and Florida, with McCain winning Virginia by a less than 1% margian. Again, this is just how I would predict today. Today is not Nov. 3rd. Things may and will change. But remember, I belive that I am the only one who accuratley predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the New Hampshire primary, so that should give me just a little bit of credibility with you guys.
September 24, 200817 yr Three states will be the key on Election Day. Florida Virginia Ohio The way I see things working out go like this. Michigan and Pennsylvania both go into the Obama Category. He didn't do well in PA in the pirmaries, but I think the economy will be too much of a factor for McCain to overcome. New Mexico will probably go to Obama, New Hampshire will probably go to Mcain. Give Nevada and Colorado to either one, it makes no difference. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will probably go to Obama. That leaves the initial three states that will make a difference. If this scenario occurs, McCain will have to win all three: Florida, Virgina, and Ohio. If he wins only two of three, Obama will be the next President of the US. Polls that I know and trust, put Obama ahead in Virgina(barely) ahead in Ohio(more comfortably), and tied in Florida. There will be obviously other factors that come in to play between now and Nov. 4th. I am not going to make a prediction now, but if you put a gun to my head and asked for it, I would say that Obama would win Ohio and Florida, with McCain winning Virginia by a less than 1% margian. Again, this is just how I would predict today. Today is not Nov. 3rd. Things may and will change. But remember, I belive that I am the only one who accuratley predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the New Hampshire primary, so that should give me just a little bit of credibility with you guys. Love this site as it brings all the polls together to get an overview. For Ohio http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html 6 for McCain, 3 for Obama, 1 tied For Virginia http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html 5 McCain, 2 for Obama For Florida http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html 5 McCain, 1 Obama, 1 tied. Look on the left column for links to other polls for other battleground states.
September 24, 200817 yr Love this site as it brings all the polls together to get an overview. For Ohio http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html 6 for McCain, 3 for Obama, 1 tied For Virginia http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html 5 McCain, 2 for Obama For Florida http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html 5 McCain, 1 Obama, 1 tied. Look on the left column for links to other polls for other battleground states. One scenario in VA that might end up helping Obama and hurting McCain is the Senate race. Mark Warner (D) is extremely popular on both sides of the aisle. He was a great governor during a hard time. His opponent is Jim Gilmore ® who was his predecessor and how left a huge budge mess behind as well as doing a terrible job as RNC chair in that time. Most expect a Warner win and his popularity is such that it might just sweep some votes in for Obama on his coat tails. I still won't believe that the Old Dominion will actually go Democratic when it hasn't since '64. I still feel the GOP will find some way to win it for McCain but the margin will probably very, very close.
September 24, 200817 yr Realclear is a great site to get your overviews. It also gives you a chance to see differences in how some polls are biased. Some of this bias is however, not just a Liberal/Conservative bias, but just for example some of the polls will have a rural/urban bias, depending on the state. So far, I haven't seen any polls in the Presidential race having a Public/Private bias either way:D
September 24, 200817 yr Realclear is a great site to get your overviews. It also gives you a chance to see differences in how some polls are biased. Some of this bias is however, not just a Liberal/Conservative bias, but just for example some of the polls will have a rural/urban bias, depending on the state. So far, I haven't seen any polls in the Presidential race having a Public/Private bias either way:D Some would tell you that your observations are wrong as McCain is leading most of the polling data in those states. It will be interesting to see if those polls change as the economic situation begins to take hold. Both on O and on the lack of Public/Private bias. Republicans are for vouchers and the rich. Democrats are against for the protection of the poor public schools. :flame::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::p:p:p:p
September 24, 200817 yr Some would tell you that your observations are wrong as McCain is leading most of the polling data in those states. It will be interesting to see if those polls change as the economic situation begins to take hold. Both on O and on the lack of Public/Private bias. Republicans are for vouchers and the rich. Democrats are against for the protection of the poor public schools. :flame::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::p:p:p:p :lol: I tell you what, this election season is sure to be a :flame:barnburner. I forgot to include Florida's possible voting problems in my prediction for that state. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26856896/
September 25, 200817 yr From Fox News, earlier today: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/24/fox-news-poll-obama-reclaims-lead-over-mccain-45-to-39/
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.