The disappointment I predict is for the overly optimistic conservatives that have cropped up lately. Even with the party still divided, McCain basically getting in free licks, and a fairly poor month, Obama is still leading McCain in the RCP average... Imagine what that's going to look like in November. McCain should be at high water right now, and he can't even clear the hump on Obama.

 

You know that this topic is really where we differ. That said, I feel extremely confident that Hillary can not beat McCain. Obama will have a chance, but I view it as very slight. I am happy with that. I feel very strongly that Obama is 8 years ahead of his time here.

With 84% of the precincts counted, Hillary holds onto her 10 point lead. That's good enough to keep on going. I think she would have continued with anything better than a 6 point win.

 

I love it.

:dancingpaGo Hillary take Indiana and Kentucky:dancingpa

 

And since Obama and Clinton have basically been getting wall to wall coverage for the last 6 weeks would it not be logical to assume that they would have opened their leads on McCain rather then seeing them narrow? I don't agree with McCain on everything but he is much much better then either of his tax raising potential opponents.

 

Obama has shown a chink in his armor and Clinton can't win IMVHO.

Courage to do what? Do everything the same as Bush?

 

Everywhere the Democratic candidates go voter registration is up. More Dems are coming out than Repubs. All signs are pointing to a Democratic win.

 

I wouldn't go that far, even on CNN they were talking about how McCain is competing in the polls in states republicans have been competitive in since 1984.

Also, more dems are registering right now because they still have a primary race, a lot of the registration is people who just want to finally participate in a primary. I'm not so sure that this is a democrat clear shot. Things are lining up for John McCain to steal this election from the democrats. And by all accounts it should be the Democrats to loose and it looks like they just might.

May 6 is the next big day for the Democrats. Indiana and North Carolina, with more delegates between them than Pennsylvania had. Indiana is an open primary. North Carolina is open to any registered voter who's not registered Republican.

 

Does Hillary need to win both or can she split with Obama. North Carolina is worth 115 delegates and Indiana is worth 72.

CNN has a thing on their website that lets people set the percentage of the votes for each remaining primary or caucus. I set it the margin she won with last night 55%-45%. It even lets you predict the percentage of the super delegates.

 

What I found out was if she won each remaining contest with the same margin a victory and the superdelegates go the same margin. Here is the delegate total.

 

Obama 2035

Clinton 1982

 

She really is fighting an uphill battle.

CNN has a thing on their website that lets people set the percentage of the votes for each remaining primary or caucus. I set it the margin she won with last night 55%-45%. It even lets you predict the percentage of the super delegates.

 

What I found out was if she won each remaining contest with the same margin a victory and the superdelegates go the same margin. Here is the delegate total.

 

Obama 2035

Clinton 1982

 

She really is fighting an uphill battle.

 

Very true. The only thing she can hope for is to close the gap and the convince the supers to side with her. What Obama needs to do is start to be more of a policy wonk as the primaries get closer. Now if FLA and MICH, suddenly have a do-ever then I think Clinton could take the popular vote and the pledged delegates. IF Florida and Mich get their act together.

Very true. The only thing she can hope for is to close the gap and the convince the supers to side with her. What Obama needs to do is start to be more of a policy wonk as the primaries get closer. Now if FLA and MICH, suddenly have a do-ever then I think Clinton could take the popular vote and the pledged delegates. IF Florida and Mich get their act together.

 

 

Is that still on the table as a possible option? I hadn't heard much about it lately.

Is that still on the table as a possible option? I hadn't heard much about it lately.

Terry McAuliffe was asked about it last night and its still a possibility.

Terry McAuliffe was asked about it last night and its still a possibility.

 

 

Thanks. I wonder what the chances of this actually happening are? What effects would it have?

John Dean said yesterday that the Fla. and Mich. delegates will be seated at the convention. They have to decide how to be distribute them in a fair way. I mean were the loser and his or her followers don't feel cheated.

 

My wife and I were discussing this problem this morning. It really reminds me some of the 1968 convention. That divided convention cost the democrats the election that year.

 

This is a real possibility in my opinion if it isn't handled right.

If Fla and Mich are brought back and Clinton gets the popular vote then she would have to have Obama as a VP. It would be like Kennedy/Johnson, Regan/Bush, etc. in a long line of people who don't really like each other running on the same ticket. If Fla and Mich have a do-over and Clinton wins then good for her, I can support that. As it stands now they shouldn't be seated.

If Fla and Mich are brought back and Clinton gets the popular vote then she would have to have Obama as a VP. It would be like Kennedy/Johnson, Regan/Bush, etc. in a long line of people who don't really like each other running on the same ticket. If Fla and Mich have a do-over and Clinton wins then good for her, I can support that. As it stands now they shouldn't be seated.

I agree.

If Fla and Mich are brought back and Clinton gets the popular vote then she would have to have Obama as a VP. It would be like Kennedy/Johnson, Regan/Bush, etc. in a long line of people who don't really like each other running on the same ticket. If Fla and Mich have a do-over and Clinton wins then good for her, I can support that. As it stands now they shouldn't be seated.

 

 

I wonder if the rest of current Obama supporters will feel the same way?

They'll be seated... but only after the nomination is over. Or as a 50-50 split. Them's the beaks. I mean, Obama wasn't even on the ballot in one of those states. The results are void. I know all the law-and-order people on this board will agree that rules are rules.