Hillary and Obama are going to split VT and RI, Hilldawg looks to win Ohio, and could possibly win Texas. Where does the race go from here? This could throw Obama's walk to the nomination off track a little bit and drag the race out even longer.

A guy on CNN said that even if Clinton won every state by more than 10% (certainly a stretch for any candidate), she still wouldn't have enough delegates. It looks to me like she's one lost "big state" (Texas and Pennsylvania, and then Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina) away from basically being eliminated.

Hillary has won Ohio.

Hillary has won Ohio.

 

It seemed like it took a while to project that. I know the urban areas weren't in earlier, but she held a commanding lead all night in Ohio.

It's starting to look like Obama's only win tonight might be the People's Republic of Vermont. Maybe a little buyer's remorse is setting in on Democrats. If Clinton's leads hold up, it will be interesting to hear Rush take credit for her wins tomorrow.:lol:

It's starting to look like Obama's only win tonight might be the People's Republic of Vermont. Maybe a little buyer's remorse is setting in on Democrats. If Clinton's leads hold up, it will be interesting to hear Rush take credit for her wins tomorrow.:lol:

 

I still think Obama is one more big state win away from sealing the nomination.

 

Also, a report earlier said that exit polling of Republicans/Independents that voted in the Democrat primary actually chose Obama over Clinton! Rush will take credit...but he probably shouldn't!

It seemed like it took a while to project that. I know the urban areas weren't in earlier, but she held a commanding lead all night in Ohio.

They were waiting for the Cleveland area to come in. The thinking was that it would be big Obama territory. But now her lead is so big that they don't think it will matter.

I still think Obama is one more big state win away from sealing the nomination.

 

Also, a report earlier said that exit polling of Republicans/Independents that voted in the Democrat primary actually chose Obama over Clinton! Rush will take credit...but he probably shouldn't!

I am not a regular Rush listener, but if I had voted for Hillary I would not have admitted it to exit pollsters. In fact, if I had voted in the Democratic primary I would have worn a disguise.:lol:

 

(I agree that Obama is very close to winning the nomination regardless of tonight's primary results.)

I am not a regular Rush listener, but if I had voted for Hillary I would not have admitted it to exit pollsters. In fact, if I had voted in the Democratic primary I would have worn a disguise.:lol:

 

Aw, shucks! I was looking forward to taking you with me to the Democratic polling place in May!

It's starting to look like Obama's only win tonight might be the People's Republic of Vermont. Maybe a little buyer's remorse is setting in on Democrats. If Clinton's leads hold up, it will be interesting to hear Rush take credit for her wins tomorrow.:lol:

Two weeks ago, Clinton held a 20 point lead in both Texas and Ohio. They trended toward Obama, not away from him.

 

Even if she wins the popular vote, I would be surprised to see her win more delegates than Obama in TX...

Even if she wins the popular vote, I would be surprised to see her win more delegates than Obama in TX...

 

On the issue of total delegates, CNN is showing Obama with 90 more than Clinton right now. So realistically he will still leave tonight with a lead in delegates.

On the issue of total delegates, CNN is showing Obama with 90 more than Clinton right now. So realistically he will still leave tonight with a lead in delegates.

I'm talking about JUST in Texas. The way they assign delegates, Obama has a great chance to walk out of that state with more, even if Clinton edges him in the popular vote.

 

Mathematically, if you're just counting assigned delegates, it's all over but the crying. She can't catch Obama. Now, with the SDs, that's a different story, but it's interesting to note that even in a solid Clinton state like Ohio looks to be, the majority of Democratic voters want the SDs to vote for the winner of the primary and not make independent decisions...

I'm talking about JUST in Texas. The way they assign delegates, Obama has a great chance to walk out of that state with more, even if Clinton edges him in the popular vote.

 

Mathematically, if you're just counting assigned delegates, it's all over but the crying. She can't catch Obama. Now, with the SDs, that's a different story, but it's interesting to note that even in a solid Clinton state like Ohio looks to be, the majority of Democratic voters want the SDs to vote for the winner of the primary and not make independent decisions...

 

My apologies on the first part. You're right about the whole Texas issue.

 

As for the mathematics, I stated earlier that even if she won every remaining state by 10%+ she still wouldn't have more delegates than Obama. The issue will be superdelegates. If she runs off several wins over the next couple of months, the supers might be more inclined to vote her way.

I don't understand why the Popular Vote doesn't declare the delegates. I understand that they weight the counties based on population, but to me that says to the smaller counties that their votes aren't worth as much. I think they should distribute them proportionately with the popular vote. I think I understand this, but then again I could have the way they are distributed completely wrong.

My apologies on the first part. You're right about the whole Texas issue.

 

As for the mathematics, I stated earlier that even if she won every remaining state by 10%+ she still wouldn't have more delegates than Obama. The issue will be superdelegates. If she runs off several wins over the next couple of months, the supers might be more inclined to vote her way.

 

The problem is that neither democrat candidate is going to garner enough delegates to win the nomination prior to the convention. I still think Clinton will be the nominee because the dems can not take the chance and not nominate a Clinton. Obama is still young and will run again down the road. That is also why the superdelegates will swing toward Hillary as well.